摘要
农村居民点是人类社会发展到一定历史阶段的产物,是农村人口生产生活的承载体.可以预见,在未来相当长的一段时期内,农村居民点仍将是农村人口聚居的主要形态。我国农村人口基数大,土地资源特别是耕地资源十分紧缺,以及改善农民生产生活条件的需求,决定了我国亟待加强农村居民点研究.
我国农村居民点用地缺乏科学有效的约束,普遍存在着用地结构松散、用地结构单一、人均用地量大、建筑密度大、容积率低等问题;村庄基础设施建设薄弱、用地发展无序、建筑物布局零乱、消防安全隐患大、环境卫生恶劣,严重影响到“三农”问题的解决和农民生产生活环境的改善.尤其是,在我国农村地区大量新增居民点用地竞相侵吞优质良田的粗放式、掠夺式用地现象,已经成为我国耕地减少的一个重要因素。
基于上述认识,本文以苏北经济欠发达地区的睢宁县及其典型乡镇(高作镇)为例,从农村居民点整体和内部两个层面分析景观格局演变状况及其动力机制,并提出了基于景观格局演变的农村居民点整理潜力的两个模型:景观格局修正因子模型和马尔科夫链模型.利用RS和GIS技术对收集的资料进行数据处理,采用三期影像,分析了农村居民点用地整体及其内部景观格局变化;引入景观格局修正因子、马尔科夫链模型,测算了基于景观格局演变的农村居民点整理潜力,并对农村居民点整理模式和布局调整进行了初步探讨;在此基础上结合农村居民点整理的农户意愿分析,提出了农村居民点整理方案和实施策略,以期为建设社会主义新农村过程中农村居民点的整理与规划研究提供了参考和依据.
通过研究得出以下主要结论:
(1)1995～2005年,睢宁县农村居民点总规模和平均规模增加,但增加幅度减小,总规模从192.79 km~2增加到282 km~2,平均斑块面积由0.07473 km~2增加到0.09494km~2,总规模和平均规模的变化呈现从1995～2000年要大于从2000年～2005年;农村居民点斑决从2587块增加到3027块,斑块密度由1.4836个/km~2增加到1.7491个/km~2,增加速度也呈现从1995～2000年要大于从2000年～2005年;但斑决分离度指数呈现下降趋势.
(2)从农村居民点景观整体看,睢宁县农村居民点最大规模指数增加,表明最大农村居民点的规模增大;农村居民点在形状上没有很大的变化,其形状指数维持在1.5左右;平均斑决分维数保持在1.10左右,抗干扰能力较低,同时也增强生态环境不稳定性.从农村居民点内部景观看,近二十多年来,睢宁县高作镇居住景观等建设性景观迅速增加,村内空闲地减少,并与农用地一起成为居住景现等建设性增加的主要来源。通过对景观变化驱动力的全局主成分分析,认为经济发展因素、人口和户数的增加以及人均居住面积的扩大是导致农村居住等景观增加、村内空闲地减少的主要原因.
(3)根据江苏省村庄建设规划导则和我国对村镇居民建设用地国家规模控制标准,确定至规划期末睢宁县农村人均建设用地指标为90 m~2,至2020年睢宁县农村居民点用地面积为6930hm~2,理论上农村居民点可以整理出土地16877.30hm~2.
引入景观格局修正因子,在农村居民点的景观格局发展趋势基础上,采用模糊聚类分析方法,结合《睢宁县城镇体系规划》设想,将睢宁县域农村居民点整理层次分为四个层次并确定各个层次景观格局修正因子大小,据此得出睢宁县农村居民点整理潜力为14464.30 hm~2.
(4)本文通过建立基于马尔科夫链模型的农村居民点整理潜力测算模型,对高作镇农村居民点内部景观格局演变趋势进行了模拟,并按照景观格局演变的马尔科夫链模型得出的比例关系确定居住景观、生产性景观、道路交通景观、服务性景观4类景观的增加数量,测算得出高作镇整理潜力为117.88 hm~2.
(5)根据村庄人口规模、地形条件、经济发展状况、交通运输条件等,结合居民点整理潜力状况,将睢宁县农村居民点整理分为四种整理模式,即村庄保留模式、村庄迁移模式、村庄合并模式和村改居模式;通过村庄布局调整,村庄总数由现状2475个自然村规划调整为372个集中居住区,规划农村总人口77万人,共约有32.02万农村人口转为城镇人口,其中直接转为城镇的人口为8.3万人.
(6)农户是农村居民点整理的微观主体,农村居民点规模和布局显现一定的差异主要驱动力就在于农户决策行为的累积结果.睢宁县农村居民点整理方案设计包括时序安排、资金筹集、管理监督和用地指标设置等4个方面。睢宁县农民居民点整理实施过程主要制约因素为思想观念制约、景观设计制约和经济条件制约,而相应地强调生态观念和重视景观设计、完善相关政策和解决资金难题是目前保障睢宁县居民点整理方案顺利实施的有效策略。
The rural residential area is the outcome of a certain historical development stage of society, and it is the carrier of the rural production and living. It can be predicted that rural settlements will continue to be the primary form of rural settlement for a long period of time in the future. With the China's huge number of the population, the conflict between the population and land resources especially the farmland, and the requirement for improving the condition of production and living in rural areas, have made it significant to inhance the research on the rural residential areas.
Nowadays, there are lots of problems in the use of rural residential land in our country, for example, the rural residential land lacks of scientific and effective constraints, which have led to the incompact and simplex land use structure, the large amount of land per capita, the high construction density and the low plot ratio, and so on. The problems of villages' weak infrastructure construction, land development disorder, disorder layout of the building, fire potential safety problems and poor sanitation, also have seriously affected the "three rural" problem to be solved effectively. The most important of all, the way of new settlements expand in rural areas have led to the loss of high quality cultivated land, and it has become an important factor of China's arable land decreasing.
Therefore, Reasonable solution for the problems that rural settlements exist, Rural settlements economical use of intensive production and improve the living conditions of farmers need to strengthen the research of rural settlements on land-use change and collate. This paper, taking Sui-ning county and representative town (Gaozuo Town) in the northern Jiangsu Province as the example, landscape pattern dynamics and its dynamic mechanism are to be viewed at two levels: global and internal rural residential area. And two models: Correctional Gene Model of Landscape Pattern and Markov Chain Model for rural residential area consolidation potential is put forward. The change of landscape patterns between 1995 and 2005 is analyzed using the RS and GIS to process data of three (1995, 2000 and 2005) image. The landscape correction factor and Markov Chain Model will be introduced to calculate the rural settlements consolidation potential based on landscape change; The consolidation mode and layout readjustment were discussed; On the basis of above-mentioned work combined with willingnes analysis of farmer about rural settlements consolidation, the plan design and its implementation strategy were put forward, with a view to building a new socialist countryside in the process of rural settlements with the collation of planning studies to provide a reference and a basis.
Through the textual research work, conclusions were as follows:
(1) The total area of the rural residential land in Sui-ning between 1995 and 2005 is average increasing,but the rate of increase is decrease, the total size increasing from 192.79 km~2 to 282 km~2, the average plaque area increasing from 0.07473 km~2 to 0.09494 km~2, the size and the average size changes shows from 1995 to 2000 is greater than that from 2000 to 2005; rural settlements plaque from 2587 to 3027, the plaque density increasing from 1.4836/km~2 to 1.7491/km~2, the rate of increase has emerged greater from 1995～2000 than from 2000 to 2005 ,but separated plaque index show a downward trend.
(2)On the whole, Sui-ning's largest index of rural residents increased, shows the largest rural settlements that increased; the size of rural settlements in the shape of no great changes, its shape index maintained at around 1.5; average patch fractal dimension remained at around 1.10, lower anti-interference capability, also enhance the instability of the ecological environment. Form internal rural residential area, the residential landscape increased rapidly; leisure area reduce; and leisure areaand agricultural land became main sources for the increasing of the residential landscape in these two decades.Based on Generalized Principal Component Analysis for driving force of landscape change , economic development factor,the increasing of population and subscriber number and the enlargement of per capita living space are the main reason.
(3) According to the Jiangsu Provincial Construction Planning Guide of villages and the control standards of rural residents the land for building in China on a national scale, determine the end of the planning Sui-ning indicators rural per capita construction land is 90 m~2, and 2020 rural settlements Sui-ning land area of 6930 hm~2, theoretical rural settlements can be sorted out land 16877.3 hm~2.
Introducing landscape correction factor, based on the rural landscape pattern settlements development trend, using fuzzy clustering analysis method, combining "Huiningxian urban system planning", Huiningxian rural settlements consolidation level domain is divided into four level and value of landscape correction factor was determined. It is reached that the reality potential of rural settlements consolidation of Huining county may be 14464.3 hm~2.
(4) Based on Markov Chain Model for rural residential area consolidation potential, the trend of landscape pattern dynamics for internal rural residential area is simulated. And based on the results and proportion relation of Markov Chain Model, the quantity of residential landscape, productive landscape, road landscape, service landscape etc. is calculated and rural residential area consolidation potential is 117.88 hm2 in Gaozuo Town Suining County.
(5) On the basis of above theoretical analysis and consolidation potential of different consolidation level, the different cities and towns in the county by the different functions using different sites, namely central city of 80 m~2 per capita per person, deputy centre 100 m~2 per capita per person, focusing on the town of 120 m~2 per capita per person, normally on a per-capita town 150 m~2 per capita per person calculation, which reached Sui-ning consolidation the reality of rural settlements may be the potential to 14464.3 hm~2.
(6) Farmers is the main land-use micro in the rural settlements. Rural settlements size and layout show some differences, the fundamental reason is that farmers settlements in the accumulated result of farmers behavior analysis of decision. Plan designed of rural settlements consolidation was consist of implement course, fund raising, management and supervision, land index setting. Major constraints of rural settlements consolidation are ideological concept, landscape design, and economic condition. Correspondingly, the effective way about protecting the smooth development of consolidation of rural land settlements is to emphasize ecological concept, pay attention to landscape design, perfect related policy, and solve capital difficult problem.
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