摘要
从世界范围来看,住房问题是各国政府普遍面临的一大难题,它既是一个经济问题,也是一个社会政治问题。住房问题需要政府介入,通过建立住房保障制度,保障低收入家庭的基本居住权,解决住房上的社会问题和公平问题。从1980年至今,中国房地产业发展已有三十余年的历史,既有发展的高峰和兴旺时期,也出现过低谷和市场的衰退,作为房地产业重要组成部分的住房市场,它的健康发展不仅关系到国民经济的全局,而且关系到人们的安居乐业和社会的安定繁荣。在现阶段,我们虽然通过各种途径已经解决了不少群众的住房问题,但住房制度改革和房地产市场发展中存在的问题仍然突出,仍有部分群众住房问题没有得到根本解决、没有享受到改革开放的成果。
可以看出人们还没有完全掌握住房市场和价格变化的规律,一些房价调控政策具有明显的短期行为效应,房价越调越高,使得政府解决住房问题难度加大。而土地是房地产开发的要素,土地供应政策是一系列房地产调控的手段。加强房地产市场的土地供应调控,积极应对土地市场和住房市场变化,开展对土地供应的绩效评价和住房市场的监控和调查研究分析,保障我国土地和住房市场的健康发展就显得尤为必要。本论文全面、系统地研究了土地供应绩效评价、住房市场监控方法以及土地供应与住房市场之间的相互作用关系,建立城镇土地市场绩效评价模型和住房市场监测指标体系,丰富和完善住房市场理论,为我国住房市场的发展提供理论依据和实践指导。住房市场的平稳、健康、持续发展既有利于促进国民经济全局的发展,也有利于稳定房价、促使住房问题的解决,实现“居者有其屋”的住房发展目标。
论文的研究内容分为七章,各章的主要内容如下:
第一章,绪论。指出本文的研究背景与研究意义并对研究范围进行了界定,在此基础之上对国内外与此相关的研究进行了综述并指出其研究的不足,最后介绍了论文的总体研究目标、研究内容及创新之处。
第二章,我国城镇土地供应绩效评价及住房市场监控机制相关基础理论。首先,回顾了我国城镇土地供应制度的发展进程、问题及未来发展趋势,在此基础上分析了我国城镇土地供应绩效评价有关概念、存在问题及应坚持的原则;其次,论述了政府对住房市场进行监控的必要性及意义;最后,从我国现行土地供应机制的基本特征和土地供应对住房市场的影响两方面研究了土地供应与住房市场的关系,为论文的研究提供了理论基础。
第三章,我国城镇土地供应绩效评价模型的构建。首先,通过对土地供应绩效评价对象的界定及目标的确立,基于系统论对住宅用地进行描述;其次,探讨建立土地绩效评价的指标体系;最后,运用土地供应绩效评价的“物元评价模型”来评价土地供应的综合绩效,预报土地市场运行总体状况。
第四章,我国城镇住房市场监控机制。论文在论述了城镇住房市场监控的意义、总结分析国内外住房市场监控体系和方法其存在问题的基础之上,采用景气指数法和计量经济分析法相结合的方法,建立了住房市场监控系统指标体系:根据监测指数所处的区间不同,可以分析当前住房市场发展的态势以及未来可能的走势。
第五章,我国城镇住房市场调控与土地供应。首先论述了住房市场调控的概念、必要性和手段;其次回顾了我国近期房地产市场的(住房市场)调控政策并分析了调控效果,国家对房地产市场的宏观调控总体上收效甚微,没有达到预期的目的;最后分析了土地供应在房地产市场宏观调控中的作用并提出了相关的政策建议。
第六章,实证研究-以重庆市为例。运用论文建立的城镇土地供应绩效评价模型及住房市场监控体系和方法,对重庆市城镇土地供应和住房市场的发展状况进行了分析评价。最后对重庆市土地市场和住房市场的发展提出了政策建议。
第七章,结论与展望。总结了论文研究的主要结论、创新点以及展望了相关后续研究内容和研究方向。
论文的创新之处体现在以下两个方面:
第一,运用解析原理、系统理论分析了土地供应需要综合考虑的结构配置效应、经济效应、公平配置效应这三大效应,进而将三大效应分解为土地结构配置的合理化、土地空间配置的合理化、土地直接收益、土地间接收益、社会公平、用地公平等六大目标,以及用多个具体评价指标来综合评价土地供应的绩效。在恰当划分潜力等级基础上,应用“物元模型”来综合评价土地供应效益。该评价方法可以建立多指标性能的参数质量评定模型,权重的确定避免了主观因素影响,提高了评定结果的客观性,并能以定量数值表示评定结果,从而能够较完整的反应事物效益的综合水平。
第二,在总结分析国内外各种住房市场监控方法不足的基础上,论文采用景气指数法和计量经济分析法相结合的方法建立住房监测系统,考虑到经济模型在应用中往往与实践存在一定的差异,所以同时结合定性分析对住房市场进行监测,提高了分析结果的准确性。
From the world scale, housing problem is a problem that governments are facing universally, which is not only an economic problem, but also a social and political problem. Housing problem needs government’intervention to establish housing guarantees system and ensure the basic residency of low-income families, and then solves social problems and fairness in housing. From 1980 to now, the development of real estate industry in China has more than 30 years of history, which includes both the development and prosperity of the peak period, and lows and market’s recession, but without doubt real estate has already become pillar industries in the development of our national economy. As an important part of the real estate industry, the housing market’s healthy development is not only related to the national economy, and related to global people live and work and social stability and prosperity. At present, although we have solved many mass housing problems through various channels, but problems existing in the housing system reform and the real estate market development are still outstanding. There are still some housing problems that don't get fundamental solutions and don’t enjoy the achievement of reform and opening-up.
According to the volatility trends of real estate industry and real estate prices fluctuate in recent years, it can be included that people haven't fully grasp the rules of housing market and real estate prices change, and some prices control policy has obvious short-term behavior effect. The price is higher and higher, which makes it more difficult for the government to solve housing problem.
This paper comprehensively and systematically studied land supply performance evaluation, housing market monitoring method and the interactions between land supply and the housing market, established urban land market performance evaluation model and the housing market monitoring index system, enriched and perfect the housing market theory, and provided theoretical basis and practical guidance for the development of China's housing market. The housing market’s stable, healthy and sustainable development is good to promote the national economy global development, but also beneficial to stable prices, to solve the housing problem, and realizes housing development goals of "everyone owns his house".
Thesis research content is divided into seven chapters; the main content of every chapter is as follows:
The first chapter: introduction. It points out the research background and significance of the research and defined the research scope, on the basis of which it summarizes the related research in home and abroad and pointed out its defects, and finally introduces the general research approach, thesis structure and innovative points.
The second chapter: the related basic theory of China urban land supply performance evaluation and the housing market monitor. Firstly, it reviews the development process and the future development of China urban land supply system, this paper analyzes related concepts of our country town land supply performance evaluation, problems and the principles. Secondly, it elaborates the necessity and significance of the government’s housing monitor. Finally, it studies the relationship between land supply and the housing market from the aspects of current land supply mechanism’s basic features and the influence of land supply to the housing market, which provides theory basis for my research.
The third chapter: the construction of China urban land supply performance evaluation model. Firstly, it analyzes the game behavior of the interest subject under the current land system, and focuses on the agency cost of the local government in land supply, and provides foundation for land supply of performance appraisal. Secondly, it discusses the index system of building the land performance evaluation. Finally, it establishes the land supply of the performance evaluate on of "matter-element evaluation model" system to evaluate the comprehensive performance of land supply, and forecast land market operation overall status.
The fourth chapter: China urban housing market monitoring. This article discusses the significance of urban housing market surveillance, summarizes and analyzes the housing market monitoring system at home and abroad and methods and existing problems, and on the basis of which it uses boom index method and econometrics analytic method to set up the housing market monitoring system index system: according to the differences between monitoring index in place of interval, it analyzes the current housing market development trend and possible future price movements.
Chapter 5: China urban housing market regulation and land supply. Firstly, it discusses the housing market control concept, necessity and means; Secondly, it reviews control policies of the recent real estate market (housing market) and analyses the market control effect, and resulted that it did not reach the purpose; At last, it analyzes the role of land supply in the real estate market macro-control and puts forward relevant policy Suggestions.
Chapter 6: an empirical study, taking Chongqing as an example. Using the town land supply performance evaluation model in the paper and the housing market monitoring system and method it analyzes Chongqing urban land supply and housing market developments. Finally, it put forward policy suggestions for land market and the housing development in Chongqing.
Chapter 7: conclusions and prospect. It summarizes the main research conclusions, innovation points and prospects the related subsequent research content and research direction.
Innovative points of the paper are embodied in the following two aspects:
Firstly, using analytic principle, system theory analyzes land supply need comprehensive consideration of the structural configuration effect, economical effect, fair allocation effect, then the three effects is decomposed into six goals, such as land structure configuration rationalization, the land space configuration rationalization, the land direct income, land indirect benefits, social justice, and land justice and so on, then it uses several specific evaluation indexes to comprehensively evaluate the performance of land supply. On the basis of the appropriate division level, it applies "matter-element model" to evaluate land supply benefits comprehensively. The evaluation method can build multi-index performance parameters of the quality evaluation model; weight assuring avoids subjective factors influence, improves the objectivity of evaluation result, and uses quantitative numerical to express evaluation result, so it can express the comprehensive level of things benefit.
Secondly, after analyzing the inadequate of various domestic and international housing markets monitoring method, the paper uses boom index method and econometric analysis method to establish housing monitoring system. The economic model in the application is often different from practice, so the paper combines qualitative analysis of the housing market monitoring to improve the accuracy of analytical results.
引文
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