摘要
能源是人类赖以生存的关键要素,能源的消费,不仅关系到经济发展,而且关系到经济安全。一方面,由于我国经济发展对于能源的依赖程度高,而且我国人口基数大,所以能源消费等相关问题对于我国而言非常重要。另一方面,我国幅员辽阔,人口的分布不均匀,能源分布也很不均匀,因此我国能源消费表现出较强的地域性,即区域间有比较明显的差异。因此,以我国能源的消费为出发点,认识我国地区间能源消费情况差异,并分析其产生的原因,可以为相关问题和相应政策法规的制定提供有力的实证依据。
本文首先在对我国总体能源消费的大体情况和趋势宏观把握的基础上,详细描述我国各个地区之间能源消费情况及发展趋势,展示它们之间的差异。在明确了各个地区间能源消费情况的差异之后,利用聚类分析方法对各个地区进行分类,并与传统的东、中、西部的区域划分进行比较。其次,通过对能源消费影响因素的理论分析,建立影响能源消费的多元回归函数模型,并利用我国各地区的统计数据,采取逐步分析法进行实证分析,探究各个因素对能源消费的影响。同时,结合对我国各地区能源消费情况的聚类分析结果,尝试对造成我国各地区能源消费差异的原因进行解读。
本文得出的主要结论包括:第一,从经济产出方面观察能源的利用效率,我国西部地区的能源利用效率总体上小于中部地区,而东部地区的能源效率总体上最大,其中的个别地区有比较明显的个性特征。第二,从经济增长过程中观察能源利用效率,我国东部和中部的能源利用效率总体上没有明显的差异,西部略微低于东部和中部。第三,尽管总体上我国东部地区能源的利用效率较高,中部次之,而西部的能源利用效率最低,但各个区域中的个别省份却表现出与其所在区域比较大的差异。
另外,我国东部、中部和西部能源消费量的影响因素有比较显著的差异,其中,影响东部地区能源消费量的最主要因素是经济因素,其次是相关行业劳动力数量和科技水平,其中经济越发达,相关行业劳动力数量越多,能源消费量越大;科技水平越高,能源消费量越低;人口城市化水平也是影响能源消费量的因素之一,随着人口城市化水平的提高,能源消费量增多,但这一因素的对能源消费量的影响并不如经济等因素对能源消费量的影响显著。中部区域中,影响能源消费量的最主要因素是能源投资因素,其次是经济发展水平,这两者都与能源消费量成正向关系,即能源投资越大,能源消费量大;经济发展水平越高,能源消费量越大。影响西部地区能源消费量的最主要因素是人口因素,其次是能源投资,这两者都与能源消费量成正向关系,即人口数量越多,能源消费量大;能源投资越多,能源消费量也越大。
造成这些差异的原因有:首先,东部、中部和西部之间经济发展的不平衡造成经济因素在东部和中部对能源消费量的影响比较明显,而对西部能源消费量的影响不明显;其次,由于我国本身能源分布的不均匀以及我国能源消费结构的固有特点,造成我国能源投资总体上中部和西部要多于东部,进而造成能源投资对中部和西部的能源消费量影响比较明显,而对东部的能源消费量影响不明显;最后,由于在科技水平,相关劳动力以及城市化水平上,东部区域有得天独厚的优势,进而与中部和西部差异明显,所以造成这些因素对东部能源消费量的影响显著,而对中部和西部能源消费量的影响不显著。
最后,根据对我国区域能源消费及影响因素的讨论,本文分别针对我国中、西部区域的能源消费效率相对偏低、我国各个区域经济增长过程对于能源过于依赖、转变经济增长方式、借助提高科技水平而提高能源利用效率、区域间内能源投资的协调和整体规划以及能源供给的多元化等方面提出一些思考和建议。
No man could live without Energy. Energy consumption is not only linked closely to the economic development, but also to the economic security. On the one hand, it is very important to solute the problems about energy consumption in China, for the reason that the economic development of China depend much on energy, as well as China owns large population; on the other hand, energy consumption in China demonstrates strong characteristic among regions, that is to say, the obvious differences exist between different regions as the result of the vast territory and imbalance distribution of energy. Therefore, it, taking the energy consumption in China as a start and making it clear of the differences between regions, will absolutely give some advices for the related problems.
With the general introduction of the general condition and trend of China’s energy consumption at the very beginning, this article describes energy consumption and development trend of each region in China, and their differences. After illuminating the regional differences of energy consumption, the writer uses clustering analysis to classify areas, and then compare it with the traditional division that is divide region into the east, the west and the middle. Secondly, the writer builds a multiple regression model through the theoretical analysis, and explores how the energy consumption in regions are affected by the various factors, which can be achieved by using statistical data of each area, and the empirical analysis. Meanwhile, the writer will try to explain the reason which is leading to the differences between regions of energy consumption by the way of combining the empirical analysis with the results of clustering analysis.
The main conclusions include: firstly, by observing the efficiency of energy utilization from the aspect of economy output, the efficiency of energy utilization of western region of China is less than that of the middle. It also shows that the eastern region is the most effective region, and obvious individual characteristic can be showed in some single region. Secondly, by observing the efficiency of energy utilization from the aspect of economy growth, generally speaking, there’s no obvious difference between eastern and middle regions of China on energy consumption efficiency, except that the western region is a bit lower than that is in the other two regions in China. Thirdly, the efficiency of energy utilization in the east present higher, while the west present lower, and the middle lies between them. However, some provinces show great difference to the others in their own region.
In addition, it is obvious that huge differences exist among the factors which affect the energy consumption of eastern, middle and western region of china. In the east, the most important factor affecting the energy consumption is economy, followed by the factors of labor in related industry and technology. These factors can be interpreted as: the more developed economy and the more the number of labor force, the greater the consumption of energy; while the more advanced science and technology, the lower the energy consumption. Another factor should be taken into consideration is the level of urbanization. Along with the development of urbanization, the volume of energy consumption increase. This factor, however, does not exert a far-reaching influence on energy consumption as the economic factor dose. In the middle region, the most important factor impacting on energy consumption is investment, followed by the level of economic development, they are all positively related to energy consumption, that is, the greater the energy investment, the larger energy consumption; the higher level of economic development, the greater the energy consumption. As to the western region, the most important factor is the population, followed by investment in energy; both factors are in a positive relationship with the volume of energy consumption: the more population, the larger energy consumption; more energy investment, the greater energy consumption.
The main reason accounting for those differences are: First, the imbalance of economic development in the eastern, middle and western region leads to the situation that the economic factor weighs more with the energy consumption in eastern and middle region than that of the western region. Second, due to the uneven distributions of China's energy resources as well as the inherent characteristics consumption structure, China's energy investments on the whole, prone to be supported more in the middle and western region than of the east, which resulted in the impact of the energy investment in the middle and the west are more obvious than that in the east. Third, since enjoys the unique advantages in technology, labor force in related industry, as well as the level of urbanization, which therefore, shows the obvious differences with the middle and western regions; as a result, these factors in the east impact the energy consumption Significantly, while the central and western energy consumption is not affected so significantly.
Finally, according to the analysis on the regional energy consumption and the factors which affect the consumption in China, some attempts are made to offer some suggestions in response to relatively low efficiency of energy consumption in middle and western region in China; the dependence on energy of the process of regional economic growth; the alternative choice of the economic growth mode; the improvement of efficiency of energy consumption through the means of advancing science and technology ; the overall planning and coordination with in the inter-regional energy investment; as well as the diversification of energy supply.
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