摘要
经过三十年的发展,中国取得举世瞩目经济成就的同时产生了城市数量日渐增加、城市规模日益扩大的城镇体系。作为经济增长的动力,城市在整个现代化进程中必然扮演举足轻重的角色,因此城市发展道路的研究对于中国经济的长期发展具有其现实意义。
本文试图利用城市经济学的理论和经验结论对城市发展道路中所存在的的问题进行阐述,并有针对性的提出解决方案,提供一条可靠的城市发展的道路。文章主要从城市化与工业化、城市化与基础设施、土地城市化与人口城市化间的缺口三个方面对问题展开叙述。
文章首先对中国城市的增长规律进行了研究。本文对中国城市增长的规律及其影响因素进行了探讨。用1984年至2008年中国地级及以上城市的数据对随机过程模型进行了检验,结果表明随机过程模型无法解释中国城市的增长。之后考察了空间异质性对城市规模增长的决定作用和程度,以考察经济学模型对城市增长的解释力。结果表明,自然地理条件和市场潜力对城市增长都有作用,中国城市的增长规律是贸易理论和新经济地理学模型的中间情况。
在分析了城市发展规律之后,文章开始对中国城市发展过程中的缺口进行展开研究。首先是探讨了城市化水平与工业化水平之间的缺口,结果表明中国的城市化水平滞后于工业化水平,但这个缺口随时间推移在缩小。其次研究了基础设施的缺口。基础设施建设存在的缺口主要表现在教育和医疗设施的建设上,这表明地方政府面临的财政约束和经济增长目标时采取了优先修建生产性基础设施的做法。最后,城市人口规模与用地规模的缺口,表明城市建设用地的增长速度过快,中国的城市出现了半城市化的现象,这对于中国城市的效率造成了负面的影响。
在以上研究的基础之上,文章提出了中国城市化的道路。根据现代经济学对聚集带来的外部性和城市经济学对外部性在城市中的具体作用的研究,认为城市现代化的根本问题是充分利用聚集的外部性,提高城市的生产效率,加速城市化进程；二是坚持系统论的观念,从城镇体系的角度看待城市发展问题,充分尊重城市的个性和所处的历史阶段,进而在城镇体系中定位自身发展,促进系统效益最大化。就目前理论和发达国家的实践看,这两个原则是实现城市现代化的保障。通过分析可以看出,当前中国的城市现代化的动力在经济发展,关键环节在于生产要素自由流动和产业结构调整,制度保障是市场经济充分配置资源和政府调空保障公平的结合,其最终结果是国家综合实力上升、城乡居民生活水平提高、收入差距缩小和共同富裕。
After three decades'development, China has achieved remarkable economic success while an urban system with increasing the number and increasing sizes cities. As the engine of economic growth, cities played an important role in the modernization process, therefore studying about paths of urban development of China has its practical meaning for the long-term economic development
This paper attempts address to the problems which encountered in urban development using urban economy theories and empirical analysis, and provide a reliable urban development of the road. The main focuses of this thesis are how cities evolution,the urban efficiency, and urban gaps.
We started first with the law of growth of Chinese cities, China's urban growth and its determinating factors were discussed. Stochastic process model using1984-2008data of Chinese cities tested, the results show that the stochastic process model can not explain the growth of cities in China. After that the effects of spatial heterogeneity has been inspected on the growth of city size, in order to examine the explanatory power of economics model of urban growth. The results show that the natural and geographical conditions,and also market potential play important parts in urban growth process of the Chinese cities, and the situation of Chinese cities is in the middle of trade theory and new economic geography models.
Changes in the productivity of cities directly determines the output capacity in the current technical and the way how resources allocatecd As China enters the high-income countries, the investment will become an important factor in stimulating economic growth; the efficient use of factors of production will have a major impact on economic growth. In this thesis estimations on factors that affect productivity of the Chinese prefecture-level cities and above has been take from1985to2009year by year. The results show that there is a gradual increase in efficiency in Chinese cities, the city size and the fixed capital stock has a positive influence on urban efficiency and apparent convergence trend is found between cities from different regions.
After analysis of urban growth and urban efficiency, the thesis then turns to a serials of controversial issues that are strongly related to urban growth and urban efficiency:the level of coordination of the process of urbanization and economic development; coordination of infrastructure with level of urbanization and economic development, and the coordination of the process of urbanization and industrialization process, as well as gaps. Empirical analysis of the231countries and288cities in China showed that the urbanization process in China is lagging behind in economic development level and the level of industrialization, gaps existing in infrastructure construction.
On the basis of the above study, we proposes the path of urbanization in China. According to studies on the external effect caused by aggregation by urban economics and modern economics, that the fundamental problems of the modern city is to make full use of external to raise the city's production efficiency, acceleration of urbanization process; with the concept of systems theory, urban development issues are studied from the perspective of the urban system, with full respect for the personality of the city and the historical stage, thus positioning itself in the urban system development, and promote the system to maximize the benefits. From theory and practice in developed countries, these two principles is core issues of urban modernization. As can be seen by analyzing the current momentum of China's urban modernization in economic development, the key link is the free flow of factors of production and industrial structure adjustment system to protect a market economy, fair combination of full allocation of resources and the government tune empty protection, the ultimate result comprehensive national strength increased, improved living standards, urban and rural residents, the income gap and common prosperity.
引文
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