摘要
随着城市化和工业化的推进,人们对资源环境的依赖越来越大,资源消耗与污染排放规模不断扩大,生态环境问题日趋严重。为此,党的“十八大报告”明确指出,要把资源消耗、环境损害、生态效益纳入经济社会发展评价体系,建立体现生态文明要求的目标体系、考核办法、奖惩机制。滇中城市群由昆明市、曲靖市、玉溪市和楚雄州组成,是云南省最重要、最具发展活力的区域,也是资源消耗和环境影响最集中的区域。由于该城市群位于西南边疆欠发达地区,地理环境特殊,生态位置重要,少数民族众多；面临着经济发展和生态保护的双重压力,因此,以该地区进行实证分析,具有十分重要的意义。
生态文明建设内容丰富,涉及经济、社会、资源、环境和文化等各方面
羊有研究者对其进行系统地评价；相关生态文明建设的发展趋势和资源环境从应预测方面的研究较少。基于此,本文对生态文明建设所涉及到的理念、内涵和相关理论进行梳理；以滇中城市为例,从生态文明建设的发展水平、系统协调性、发展绩效和资源环境效应4个层面进行系统性的评价分析；采用GM(1,1)和趋势外推法进行未来发展趋势预测；针对资源环境约束问题,进行多种方案设计和情景模拟。
首先,设计了生态文明建设评价体系。将系统分解为经济发展、社会进步、资源节约、污染控制、生态环境和生态文化6大子系统；每个子系统由3个代表性指标构成,并设置了相应的度量标准。
第二,构建了相应的评价指数模型。利用熵值法和AHP法,建立生态文明建设发展水平指数模型；基于“木桶效应理论”和“平衡效益理论”,建立系统协调度评价指数模型；借鉴资源环境综合绩效指数模型,建立生态文明建设绩效评价指数模型。
第三,对滇中城市生态文明建设发展水平、协调性及绩效进行实证研究。结果表明：“十一五”期间,滇中各城市生态文明建设水平和协调性均有不同程度的改善,但还处于较低的发展阶段。到2010年,昆明和玉溪的生态文明建设处在“初级发展”、“初级协调”、“正绩效”阶段；曲靖和楚雄的生态文明建设
“轻度落后”、“轻度失调”、“正绩效”阶段。各城市生态文明建设综展水平指数相比较为：玉溪>昆明>楚雄>曲靖；系统协调度指数相比较为：昆明>玉溪>曲靖>楚雄；生态文明建设绩效指数相比较为：玉溪>昆明>楚雄>曲靖>0(全国平均水平)。
第四,在不受资源环境约束前提下,对滇中城市生态文明建设自然发展趋势预测和资源环境效应分析。结果表明：到2025年,昆明、曲靖、玉溪和楚雄的生态文明建设综合发展水平指数分别为1.036、0.707、0.921和0.788,系统协调度指数分别为0.651、0.690、0.649和0.579。由于经济发展发展速度要远高于资源节约和污染控制,资源需求量和污染物排放量仍将逐年增长。到2025年,预计滇中城市水和能源需求量比2010年增长90.40%和108.95%,废水和S02排放量将增长57.40%和131.08%,工业固体废弃物生产量将增长282.89%。
第五,对生态文明建设相关指标进行调控,设计了4种方案来改善滇中城市资源环境效应。主要通过两类调控方式来实现：一是在保证当前资源节约和污染控制的自然趋势发展,通过降低经济增长速度,使资源消耗总量和污染物排放总量控制在一定范围(如情景1和情景2),这类方式在一定程度上需要控制经济增长速度,淘汰落后产业,防止产能过剩。二是在保证社会经济增长速度不变的情况下,加强资源节约和污染控制强度(如情景3和情景4),这类方式对调整产业结构调整,加大资源节约和污染减排强度等方面提出更高要求。
最后,为了促进生态环境文明建设的协调发展,本文从“根据区位优势、调整产业结构；适度城市发展、注重城市质量；建立有效机制、厉行集约节约；控制环境污染、改善环境质量；保护生态环境,发展生态文化；确保社会公平、发扬生态民主；加强区域协调、促进和谐发展”7个方面提出了相应的政策建议。
With the advance of urbanization and industrialization, people increasingly rely on resources and the environment, resource consumption and pollution emissions have been expanding, increasingly serious environmental problems. For this reason, the report of18th National Congress of CPC clearly pointed out that put resource consumption, environmental damage and ecological benefits into economic and social development evaluation system, establish the target system, assessment methods, incentive mechanisms to reflect the requirement of ecological civilization. The Dianzhong urban agglomeration consists of Kunming, Qujing, Chuxiong and Yuxi City, is not only the most important and most dynamic region, but also the most concentrated area of resource consumption and environmental impact in Yunnan Province. Due to in the southwest frontier underdeveloped areas, special geographical environment, ecology location important, many ethnic minorities; the Dianzhong urban agglomeration is facing with the double pressure of economic development and ecological protection. Therefore, the region of empirical analysis has very important significance.
Ecological civilization construction (ECC) rich in content, covering economic, social, resource, environmental and cultural aspects, but few researchers have conducted a systematic evaluation of it. The research about the development trend prediction and environmental effects of ECC is very few. Thus, this paper sorts out the concept, connotation and related theories about ECC; systematic evaluates and analyzes the ECC results of Dianzhong urban agglomeration from the level of development, system coordination, development performance and resource environmental effects; use GM (1,1) and trend extrapolation to predict its future trends; design several programs and scenario simulations to solve its resource and environmental constraints problems.
First, design the evaluation system of ECC. The system is decomposed into six subsystems about economic development, social progress, resource conservation, pollution control, ecological environment and ecological culture; each subsystem consists of three representative indicators, and set the appropriate metrics.
Second, construct the corresponding evaluation index model of ECC. establish the level of development index model of ECC with entropy method and AHP method; construct system coordination degree evaluation index model of ECC based on the "barrel effect theory" and "balance efficiency theory"; build performance evaluation index model of ECC by referring to resource and environment performance evaluation index model.
Third, empirically research on Dianzhong urban agglomeration about the level of development, system coordination and performance of ECC with models. The results showed that:"Eleventh Five-Year" period, the level development and system coordination of ECC have been varying degrees of improvement, but still at a low stage of development. To2010, Kunming and Yuxi EEC in the "initial development","junior co-ordination","positive performance" stage; Qujing and Chuxiong ECC in the "slight backward","mild Imbalance","positive performance" stage. The development level index of cities ECC compared:Yuxi> Kunming> Chuxiong> Qujing; system coordinated index of cities ECC compared:Kunming> Yuxi> Qujing> Chuxiong; performance Index of cities ECC compared:Yuxi> Kunming> Chuxiong> Qujing>0(the national average).
Fourth, predict the development trend of Dianzhong urban agglomeration ECC on the premise of without consideration of resource and environmental constraints, and analyze its effects on resource and environmental. The results showed that:the ECC development level index of Kunming, Qujing, Yuxi and Chuxiong will be1.036,0.707,0.921and0.788; the system coordination index will be0.651,0.690,0.649and0.579at2025. As the economic development growth rate much higher than the resource conservation and pollution control of Dianzhong urban agglomeration, resource demand and pollutant emissions will continue growing year by year. To2025, is expected that water and energy demand will grow90.40%and108.95%, wastewater and SO2emissions will increase57.40%and131.08%, industrial solid waste production will grow282.89%over2010.
Fifth, regulate relevant indicators about ECC, four kinds of programs designed to improve the resources and environmental effects of Dianzhong urban agglomeration. Mainly through two ways to achieve regulation:First, to ensure resource conservation and pollution control current natural trend, by reducing the rate of economic growth, so that the total resource consumption and pollutant emission control in a certain range (such as Scenario1and Scenario2). Such methods need to control the rate of economic growth, eliminate backward industries, and prevent overcapacity. The second is to ensure the socio-economic growth rate remains unchanged, enhance resource conservation and pollution control intensity (such as Scenario3and Scenario4), this kind of way to adjust the industrial structure adjustment, increase the intensity of resource conservation and pollution reduction, etc.
Finally, in order to promote the coordinated development of Dianzhong urban agglomeration ecological civilization construction, this paper put forward corresponding policy recommendations from "according to regional advantages, adjust the industrial structure; moderately develop urban, focus on urban quality; establish effective mechanism, enforce intensive conservation; controll environmental pollution, improve environmental quality; protect the ecological environment, develop ecological culture; ensure social justice, promote ecological democracy; strengthen regional coordination, promote harmonious development ".
引文
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