摘要
中国汽车市场的快速发展和汽车社会保有量的迅速增加衍生出巨大的汽车售后服务市场,推动了汽车售后供应链的形成。汽车售后备件作为汽车售后服务不可缺少的要素,售后备件满足率在很大程度上影响和决定了售后服务的质量。随着各大汽车厂商不断投放新车型,能否达到新车备件满足率的预期目标,给新车备件供应计划提出了挑战。从供应链管理的角度来看,需求预测的准确性是保障合理库存水平和备件满足率的关键因素。尤其对于新车备件初次订单量来说,需求预测的准确性变得越来越关键。这是因为预测不准确将导致不确定的库存过量或者缺货,这样还会导致库存成本过高或引起客户的不满。
本课题来源于A公司新车售后备件准备项目中的实际问题,主要运用了项目管理理论中WBS工作分解、关键路径和制约因素理论,并结合了供应链管理理论中的ABC分类法和需求预测理论。针对A公司新车备件准备项目,分析了该项目的项目进度,找到了影响项目绩效的主要制约因素,并针对该制约因素--新车备件预测方法设计了新的流程,开发了Access预测工具,并验证了该工具的预测结果是理想的。同时在满足一定售后备件满足率的条件下,该工具能够极大地降低售后备件库存成本,有利于进一步提高企业的盈利能力。本文还针对备件铺货策略和新车备件预测知识管理提出了本文的改进建议。
The rapid development of Chinese auto market and rapid increase in social ownership cultivate the huge automotive after-sales service market and promote the formation of automotive aftermarket supply chain. Automotive service part is an essential part of aftersales service. The availability of service parts can influence and determine the quality of service in a large scale. When all car manufacturers in China continue to launch new vehicles aggressively, it is a big challenge for automotive aftersales departments to achieve the new vehicles'availability target. From supply chain management perspective, the accuracy of demand forecast is a key factor to secure appropriate inventory level as well as service availability. Especially for initial stocking, the accuracy is getting more crucial because inaccurate forecast may cause unexpected surplus or shortage in stock and will results in wasting money as well as customer dissatisfaction.
The thesis is to solve the aforementioned practical problem, which exists in new model launch service parts preparation project in automotive company A, with utilizing the combination of project management theory, such as WBS, critical path and the theory of constraints, and the theory of supply chain management, such as demand forecasting and ABC classification. Regarding the New Model Launch Service Parts Preparation project, the thesis found the main constraints affecting the project performance after analyzing the progress of the project, designed a new process against the major constraints -- New Model service parts forecasting process, developed a forecast Access tool and verified the forecast results is ideal with the simulation results. On the other hand, the Access tool can help to greatly reduce the inventory costs while certain availability target is achieved and help to further enhance the profitability. Finally, this thesis also brings up our recommendations on the distribution strategy of new car service parts and knowledge management of new service parts forecast.
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