摘要
中国最近30年以来的经济转型是伴随着区域经济的重构与整合推进的,这种重构与整合发生在两个大的“区域”层面:一是包涵了港澳及台湾在内的所谓“大中国”经济区,整合属于不同关税区之间的经济整合,不仅涉及到商品市场的整合,而且涉及到货币一体化问题,区域经济整合的侧重点在于市场整合;另一是大陆内部以省域经济为代表的行政区,整合属于同一关税区、同一货币体系下不同行政区之间的经济整合,超出了狭义的市场整合的内涵,属于广义的经济整合与区域重构。本文的目的,就在于对中国独特的两种内涵不同的区域经济整合现象进行理论分析,并就一些关键性命题进行经验性实证检验。
经济理论迄今为止关于区域经济整合有两个分析框架:一个是国际经济学之“一体化经济学”,另一个空间经济学之“新经济地理学”。本文的研究将指出,上述两种分析范式需对其适用性做出界定后才适合于对中国区域问题的研究。鉴于理论界将主权国家内部两类区域经济整合纳入统一视野的研究文献尚不多见,本文尝试性的从“泛一体化”视野将中国独特的两种类型的区域经济整合融入一个整体分析框架,通过“大中国”经济区域和大陆省际区域的融合分析,论证中国区域经济整合中的“泛一体化”现象的客观存在。
在理论研究上,本文对“大中国”区域经济整合是从国际经济学之一体化理论的贸易效应分析切入,运用相关理论解释一国两制背景下“大中国”区域经济整合机制。研究表明:启动与推进“大中国”经济区单一关税或单一市场的进程,需对四个经济体之间市场整合的贸易创造和贸易转移效应、产业内贸易和货币一体化的实施方式、以及区域经济整合的外部效应审视等做出符合实际的理论论证,这一论证可考虑以一体化经济学和博弈论作为基本分析框架并做出适当修正后来实现。本文对大陆省域经济整合是从经济地理学和新经济地理学的分析框架切入,运用其理论范式解释大陆省域经济整合机制。研究表明:大陆省域间工业集聚水平的差距是反映区域经济整合程度的重要维度,而由地理位置和历史优势所表征的区位差异是工业集聚的初始条件,规模报酬递增和正反馈效应导致集聚的自我强化,优势地区的领先发展产生了省域层面区域整合的现状,而政府政策的差异又导致这一整合趋势的路径依赖。概括而论,本文将“大中国”区域经济整合从贸易效应、产业内贸易、货币一体化等角度,做了一体化经济学范式下的适用性解说,将大陆省域经济整合从工业集聚、区位差异和政策差异等角度,做了经济地理和新经济地理范式下的适用性解说。作为“泛一体化”视野下对中国区域市场整合的审视,本文对这两种类型的区域经济整合机理做了一定程度的相关性分析。
在实证研究上,本文运用了Balassa模型、GL指数、真实利息平价条件分解测度了“大中国”经济区内贸易往来的福利效应、产业间—产业内贸易,经济体间的货币一体化。而对大陆省际区域经济整合,本文运用了“产业集中度-地区专业化”指标(Krugman Indices)、面板数据的回归分析,检验了省际产业平均集中率、省际产业中心值、省际工业集聚的区位和政策因素。
实证检验揭示:在“大中国”经济区内,市场整合的贸易影响呈现出经济体间的差异性,就港澳台而言,它们与大陆间的贸易往来,不但存在着总贸易创造效应,而且获得净贸易创造,但却没有形成净贸易转移;同时,大陆与港澳台的贸易往来不存在总贸易转移及净贸易转移效应,资本密集型和技术密集型行业在“大中国”经济区的产业内贸易中占据主导地位;汇率制度的选择对“大中国”经济区的货币一体化结果有重要含义。在大陆省际层面,改革开放以来,区域经济整合(或一体化)水平正在提高,但制造业集聚的省际差异显著,从理论来说,可以认为政府基于“新古典增长经济学”收敛假说的良好愿望至今没有完全实现;从地区专业化所体现的区域经济整合的结果而论,大陆各大地区的相对专业化差距有所趋缓,省际区域经济整合呈现“俱乐部”收敛趋势;在影响省际工业集聚的区位因素中,沿海和内地的地理位置差异对工业集聚的影响程度显著,政策因素中,出口导向型的经济发展策略对于工业集聚的推动作用明显,政府对于经济活动的参与程度越高,越是不利于地区工业的集聚。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了进一步研究的方向以及政策建议,以期能够推动中国区域经济整合在“大中国”经济区和省域层面的进程。
Chinese economic transition is promoted with the reconstruction and integration of regional economy over the Last 30 years. It happened in two regions: one is the "Greater China" economic region, which belongs to different custom territory and involves the integration of commodity market and money market; the other is the provincial economy in Chinese Mainland, which belongs to the same custom territory and monetary system. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the unique phenomenon of regional economic integration, and test the key proposition
There are two analysis frameworks of regional economic integration in economic theory: one is the economics of integration in international economics, the other is the new economic geography in spatial economics. This paper points out that the applicability of these two analysis paradigm should be defined to study Chinese regional problem. In view of the fact that two kinds of regional economy integration in a sovereign country have been seldom researched, this paper attempts to put forward a whole analysis frame from pan integration, analyzes the amalgamation of "Greater China" economic region and provincial economy in Chinese Mainland, demonstrates the objective existence of pan integration phenomenon in Chinese regional integration.
In theoretical study, this paper uses the economics of integration in international economics to analyze the trade effects of "Greater China" regional economic integration, and explains the integration mechanism in the background of one country two systems. The results show that we should demonstrate the trade creation and trade diversion effect, implementation manners of intra-industry trade and monetary integration, and the external effect of regional economic integration. In this process, we should modify the analysis frameworkof integration economics and game theory. This paper analyzes the integration mechanism of provincial economy in Chinese mainland in the analysis framework of economic geography and new economic geography. The results show that the industrial agglomeration gap is an important analysis dimension used to judge the degree of regional economic integration, location difference is an initial condition, increasing returns to scale and positive feedback effect cause the self reinforcement of agglomeration, leading development of advantageous area force the present situation of provincial economy integration, and policy difference leads to path dependence of integration tendency. In general, this paper explains the trade effect, intra-industry trade and monetary integration of "Greater China" regional economic integration by the use of the economics of integration paradigm, and analyzes the industrial agglomeration, location and policy difference of provincial economic integration by use of economic geography and new economic geography. From the pan integration, this paper explains the mechanism of Chinese regional economic integration.
In empirical study, this paper uses Balassa model, GL index and real interest parity to measure the trade welfare effect, inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade, and monetary integration. Towards provincial economic integration in Chinese mainland, this paper uses Krugman Indices, regression analysis of panel data to test province industrial average concentration rate, province industrial central value, location and policy factors of province industrial agglomeration.
The empirical results show that there is market integration difference between economic bodies. In the trade relations between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Chinese mainland, there is total trade creation effect, net trade creation effect and none trade diversion effect. Meanwhile, in the trade relation between Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, there is none total trade diversion and net trade diversion effect. Capital intensive industry and technology intensive industry play a leading role in intra-industry trade of "Greater China" economic region. It is important to choose the exchange rate regime to monetary integration in "Greater China" economic region. In provincial economy of Chinese mainland, the level of regional economic integration is improving, but provincial difference of manufacturing industrial agglomeration is significant. In theoretically, this paper holds that government's good wish based on the convergence hypothesis of new classical economics has not completely realized. From the view on results of regional economic integration, the region relative specialization disparity of Chinese mainland is reducing, provincial region economic integration presents club-convergence trend. In location factors, the difference of coastal and inland has significant effect to industrial agglomeration. In policy factors, export leading policies have significant effect to industrial agglomeration. The higher government participates in the economic activity, the hinder is in regional industrial agglomeration.
Based on the above analysis, this paper presents further research direction and corresponding policy suggestion, and expects to promote the process of Chinese regional economic integration in "Greater China" economic region and provincial economic region.
引文
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