摘要
研究商品住宅价格的影响因素不仅能为企业的生产经营提供帮助,能为投资者的证券和产业投资提供支持,而且能为政府的市场调控提供参考。本文是在张所地教授主持的国家自然科学基金项目“城市不动产动态与预期评估模型研究”(NO.70973072)的资助下,在对太原市商品住宅价格进行调查的基础上,分析了太原市商品住宅价格影响因素及其未来发展趋势,并进行了实证分析。
本文的主要研究工作如下：
(1)构建了太原市商品住宅评估指标体系
根据国内外学者相关理论及文献,根据太原市房地产业的发展现状,总结分析了太原市商品住宅价格的影响因素,包括一般因素、区域因素及个别因素,并据其构建了太原市商品住宅的评估指标体系。
(2)构建了太原市商品住宅特征价格模型
根据住宅特征价格理论,结合太原市房地产业的发展现状,对太原市商品住宅价格微观影响因素进行了实证分析。结果显示,环线位置(L)、容积率(CR)、邻近公园(NP)、物业管理费(PMF)、建筑结构(BC)、朝向(T)、装修程度(DD)、车位(P)及交通条件(TC)这些住宅特征对太原市商品住宅有较显著影响。其中,除环线位置与车位这两个指标对商品住宅价格起着反方向的影响,剩余七个指标均对商品住宅价格有正方向的影响,而且每一个住宅特征对商品住宅价格的影响符合边际效用递减规律。
(3)实证分析了太原市商品住宅宏观影响因素
在定性分析的基础上,本文构建了太原市商品住宅价格影响因素的多元回归模型,以商品住宅价格作为因变量,选取了九个需求因素和供给因素及一个特殊指标——原煤产量作为解释变量,依据太原市1995—2009年的相关数据,运用计量软件Eviews4.0进行了实证分析。结果显示,影响太原市商品住宅价格的主要因素有：人均住宅使用面积、平均每人可支配收入、平均每人消费支出、年末耕地总资源、本年竣工房屋面积以及原煤产量,其中人均住宅使用面积、平均每人可支配收入、年末耕地总资源与商品住宅价格呈正相关,其余三个因素与商品住宅价格呈负相关。
上述研究初步理清了太原市商品住宅价格与其主要影响因素之间的关系,为政府调控太原市商品住宅价格及住宅市场的协调发展提供了参考。
Study on factors affecting the price of commodity house could provide assistance to enterprises and support investors in securities investment and industrial investment and provide reference for the governments.This article is at the fund of the national natural science project "dynamic and expected evaluation model of city real estate." (NO.70973072). On the basis of investigation to the house price in Taiyuan, this article analysize the factors affecting the price of commodity house and development tendency in the future and carry on empirical analyses.
Main researches of this article y can be list as follows:
(1) Build the appraisal indicators system of the price of commodity house in Taiyuan
According to the related domestic and international theory and papers and developing status of real estate in Taiyuan, this paper summarized and analysized the factors affecting the price of commodity house in Taiyuan, which included general factors and regional factors and individual factors, finally built the appraisal indicators system of the price of commodity house in Taiyuan.
(2) Build the hedonic model of the price of commodity house in Taiyuan
According to the hedonic theory of commodity house and developing status of real estate in Taiyuan, this paper carried on testament analysis to microscopic influencing factors of the price of commodity house in Taiyuan. In the result, factors affecting the price of commodity house in Taiyuan can be list as follow:location and capacity rates and near park and property management fees and building constructure and towards and decoration degree and parking and traffic conditions. The result indicated that location and parking were negative related with the price of commodity house remarkably and the others were related with the price of commodity house in the same direction. Furthermore the every house feature's influence to the price of commodity house met the marginal utility decline laws.
(3) Carried on testament analysis to macro influencing factors of the price of commodity house in Taiyuan
On the basis of analysis of qualitive, this article built multiple regression models of factors affecting the price of commodity house. In this model, dependent variable is the price of commodity house. Nine demand and supply of factors and one special factor which was coal output were selected as independent variable. According to the relevant data from 1995 to 2009 in Taiyuan, empirical analyses were finished by using Eviews4.0. In the result, factors affecting the price of commodity house in Taiyuan can be list as follow:per captita living space of residential building and per capita disposable income and annual expenditure per capita and resources of cultivated area at the year-end and floor space of buildings completed this year and coal output. The result indicate that per captita living space of residential building and per capita disposable income and resources of cultivated area at the year-end are related with the price of commodity house in the same director and the others are negative related with the price of commodity house remarkably.
The above clarified the relationship between the factors affecting the price of commodity house in Taiyuan and major influencing factors and provided reference for government to control the coordinated development of the price of commodity house and the housing market.
引文
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