摘要
失业问题是我国长期面临的一大难题,直接关系到社会稳定和经济发展。一直以来,我国只公布城镇登记失业率,这一数据难以反映我国真实的失业现状,无法进行国际比较。本文对我国失业统计的国际可比性进行系统研究,分析我国失业统计与国际准则的异同,为改进我国失业统计、提高失业统计的国际可比性提供指导意义。
本文将方法和数据两个方面结合,研究我国失业统计的国际可比性。首先,详细阐述失业统计的国际准则,并介绍以美国为代表的失业测量体系,为我国失业统计进行国际比较提供理论依据。其次,将我国失业统计与国际准则和美国失业测量体系进行比较研究。发现我国的失业定义、劳动力调查制度等基本符合国际可比的要求,但在很多细节上,与国际准则还存在较大差异,如失业统计指标体系单一、数据公布频数过少等。再次,对中美失业统计方法和失业率进行实证研究。采用统计方法对中美失业统计有无显著差异进行分析,发现中国登记失业统计与美国CPS和中国劳动力调查存在显著差异,而中国劳动力调查和美国CPS则无显著差异。采用传统时间序列因素分析方法研究中美失业率的数据特征、长期趋势,并利用区间预测法对中美失业率的可靠性进行比较,结果表明:中国登记失业率和调查失业率与时间正相关,而美国失业率与时间负相关;2004—2007年间,中国调查失业率的可靠性不及美国失业率。最后,依据理论分析和实证分析结果,给出提高我国失业统计国际可比性的建议。
本文的创新点主要包括:从方法角度深入分析我国失业统计与国际准则存在的差异,并对中国劳动力调查和美国CPS进行了比较;将方法与数据结合,对中美失业统计方法和失业率的比较进行实证分析;对中美失业率进行数据可靠性研究。
Unemployment is a difficult problem in our country for a long time, directly related to the social stability and economic development. All along, urban registered unemployment rate is only released in China. This data is difficult to reflect the current situation of China's unemployment and can not make international comparisons. This paper makes a systematic research on the international comparability of China’s unemployment statistics, analyzes the similarities and differences between international norms and China’s unemployment statistics, and provides guiding significance for improving our unemployment statistics and the international comparability of unemployment statistics.
This article integrates the methods and data to study the international comparability of China’s unemployment statistics. Firstly, we expound in detail the international norms about the unemployment statistics, introduce the United States’unemployment statistics, and provide evidence for international comparison of China’s unemployment statistics. Secondly, comparing the China's unemployment statistics with international norms and the United States’unemployment statistics, we find our definitions of unemployment and labor force survey accord with international comparable requirements, however, in many details, there are still large differences from international norms, such as a single indicators system, little data dissemination frequency and so on. Thirdly, we make an empirical research on statistical methods and the unemployment rate of the United States and China. Through analyzing the availability of significant differences between the United States and China’s unemployment statistics with statistical methods, we realize that China's registered unemployment statistics have significant differences from the United States’CPS and China’labor force survey, while there are no significant differences between the United States’CPS and China’labor force survey. Then, we use traditional time-series factor analysis method to analyze the data characteristics of the unemployment rate, long-term trends, and use interval prediction to compare with the reliability of the United States and China’s unemployment rate, the results show that: China's registered unemployment rate and investigated unemployment rate are positively correlated with time, while the United States’unemployment rate is negatively correlated with time; from 2004 to 2007, the reliability of unemployment rate in China is less than in the United States. Finally, according to theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, some suggestion is given to improve the international comparability of China’s unemployment statistics.
The innovative points of this paper include: we make a deep analysis of the differences between international norms and China’s unemployment statistics, and compare the United States’CPS to China’labor force survey; integrating the methods and data, we make an empirical research on statistical methods and unemployment rate; we analyze the reliability of unemployment rate in the United States and China.
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