摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济平均以每年接近10%的增长速度快速发展,创造了世界经济史上的奇迹。但快速的工业化与城市化进程导致经济发展严重不平衡与对资源环境的过度消耗。国家十二五“规划纲要”中明确指出：“我国经济发展中存在经济增长的资源环境约束强化,投资与消费关系失衡,收入分配差距较大,科技创新能力不强,产业结构不合理,城乡区域发展不协调,就业总压力与结构矛盾并存等问题。”由此,经济发展方式转变,尤其是经济结构转型成为急需解决的关键问题。“纲要”中提出构建扩大内需长效机制,发展战略性新兴产业、加快发展服务业,促进经济增长向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变,促进区域良性互动与协调发展的经济发展方式转变的总路线。而产业融合作为一种新兴经济活动,其能有效的促进产业技术创新、形成新型竞争关系、降低经营运作成本以及提高效率,是促进经济结构转型的最有效的途径之一。因此,研究产业融合对中国经济结构转型的影响作用具有非常重大的现实意义。然而现有关于产业融合与经济结构研究的绝大多数要么只研究了产业融合现象,要么只分析了经济结构转型的重要性,很少有文献将产业融合与经济结构两者结合起来进行研究,即使有少数学者就产业融合对产业结构的影响进行了分析,但较片面且研究不深入,同时从实证分析的角度来研究产业融合对经济结构转型的少之甚少。本文正是试图为弥补这些不足而作出努力。
本文在国内外关于产业融合与经济结构转型的相关理论基础之上,将从经济结构转型中的产业结构转型、要素结构转型、需求结构转型三个主要方面进行,分别分析产业融合对产业结构转型、要素结构转型、需求结构转型影响的作用机制,并通过实证分析来分别检验这种作用机制的效果,以期揭示产业融合在经济结构转型的重要性。
本文首先基于投入产出分析模型中的直接消耗系数、需求系数、影响力系数与感应度系数来度量产业融合水平,并选取了高新技术产业、生产性服务业、信息产业三个产业的融合度来反映经济发展中产业融合水平。通过分析发现服务业主导下的产业融合水平总体较低,特别是生产性服务业与信息服务业的融合水平最低,并有下降趋势,服务业与第一、第二产业融合度较低,且服务业中知识技术密集型服务业融合相对传统服务业融合水平较低；制造业主导的产业融合水平总体也较低,技术密集型制造业的产业融合水平低于劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业,制造业与服务业并没有形成互动融合；中国各地区间的产业融合水平呈现明显差异,总体上东部地区产业融合水平较高,而中西部地区产业融合水平较低。
其次,通过对产业结构的现状进行分析,并构建数理模型分析了产业融合对产业结构转型的作用,同时采用面板数据计量分析方法就产业融合对产业结构转型影响进行了实证检验。研究发现：目前我国产业结构呈现严重的不合理现象,如三次产业比例失衡,各产业内结构分布不合理；生产性服务业融合对我国产业结构转型产生促进作用；高新技术产业融合对我国产业结构转型产生不利影响；信息产业的直接融合有利于我国产业结构转型,而完全融合不利于我国产业结构转型,主要原因是信息产业融合与第三产业的融合度低于第二产业；收入水平与产业结构转型之间呈现“U”型曲线关系,对外开放、政府财政支出的提高对我国产业结构转型产生促进作用。
再次,通过对产业融合与要素结构转型的研究发现：我国近些年资本不断深化,资本对经济增长的贡献率增加,而劳动力与技术的贡献率逐年下降。劳动力由第一产业向第二、第三产业转移,但更主要的是流向传统产业,流向技术密集型产业的较小。固定资产投资主要流入制造业、房地产业等行业,而对现代服务业的投入较小；生产性服务业融合与信息产业融合对我国就业结构影响较为显著,能有效的促进劳动力由第一产业和第二产业向第三产业转移,而高新技术产业融合对劳动力结构的影响不显著；产业融合对资本结构与资本深化产生显著的促进作用,即产业融合会促使资本向第三产业转移,并促进我国由劳动密集型向资本密集型发展模式转变;产业融合对我国全要素生产率的提升产生显著的促进作用,其中生产性服务业融合与信息产业融合对技术效率进步的影响较大,高新技术产业融合对技术进步的影响较大；人力资本、研究投入、市场化水平对要素结构转型有一定的促进效果。
然后,通过对产业融合与需求结构转型的研究发现：我国需求结构存在严重的失衡,主要表现为最终消费率不断下降,资本形成率不断上升并最终超过最终消费率。居民消费率不足且有下降趋势,而政府消费支出比重不断上升；产业融合有利于提升我国最终消费需求率,降低投资需求率；生产性服务业融合对净出口率产生促进作用,而高新技术产业融合、信息产业融合对净出口率产生负作用；产业融合能有效的提升我国居民消费率,拉动我国内需,减少对外依赖程度。
最后,通过对产业融合与产业结构的动态计量分析发现：产业融合与产业结构、就业结构、资本结构、能源结构以及区域经济结构之间存在长期的均衡关系,能有效的促进我国经济结构转型,但短期内还存在一些不合理的负向影响；产业融合有利于工业就业结构、资本结构与能源结构转型,产业融合对技术密集型工业的促进作用大于对资本密集型工业与劳动密集型工业的促进作用；科技创新水平、环境规制以及所有制结构等因素均有利于我国工业结构转型。
本文的贡献主要体现在如下几个方面：首先,本文基于投入产出分析法中的直接消耗系数、需求系数、影响力系数以及感应度系数,并采用高新技术产业、生产性服务业、信息产业三个产业对我国产业融合水平进行了全面的分析；其次,本文构建了产业融合对产业结构、要素结构以及需求结构转型影响的数学理论分析模型,分析了产业融合对经济结构转型的影响作用；最后,本文采用多个指标从不同侧面对经济结构转型进行了度量,并用多种计量经济学模型就产业融合对我国经济结构转型的影响进行了全面的实证检验,相对已有的文献更具有现实指导意义。
Since China's reform and opening up, Chinese economy average close to10%a year growth speed rapid development, has created a miracle in world economic history. But the rapid industrialization and urbanization lead to serious unbalance of economic development and the excessive consumption of resources and environment. National twelfth five-year "planning outline" clearly pointed out:"the economic development of our country exists the resources and environment strengthen, the imbalance between investment and consumption, the income distribution gap is bigger, technology innovation ability is not strong, the unreasonable industrial structure, urban and rural regional development not harmonious, the employment pressure problem and total structural contradictions co-exist." As a result, the transformation of economic development patterns, especially the transformation of economic structure become the key problems needed to resolve."Outline" put forward expanding domestic demand as a long-term mechanism, and put forward the general line of transformation of economic development patterns, that is promoting the strategic emerging industries, speeding up the development of service industry to promote economic growth to rely on the first, second, third industry together to drive change and promoting regional benign interaction and coordinated development. And industry convergence as a new economic activity, it can effectively promote industrial technology innovation, form new competition relations, reduce business operating costs and improve efficiency, so it is one of the most efficient paths to promote the transformation of the economic structure. Therefore, study the influence of the industrial convergence to the transformation of China's economic structure is of great practical significance. However, existing literature study of industrial convergence and the economic structure much only study the phenomenon of industrial convergence, or only the importance of the economic structure transformation, and there are few literatures combined industry integration and the economic structure, even though a few scholars analyzes the impact on the convergence of industrial structure, but there is not enough research into it, and at the same time from the perspective of empirical analysis to study the industrial convergence to the transformation of economic structure has little. This article is trying to make up for these deficiencies.
Based on the related theories of both at home and abroad about industrial convergence and the economic structure transformation, this paper will respectively analysis the affect the mechanism of industrial convergence action to the transformation of industrial structure, element structure, demand structure transformation, and through empirical analysis respectively to examine the effects of the mechanism action, with its reveals the importance of industrial convergence in the economic structure transformation.
At first, this paper based on input-output analysis model of the direct consumption coefficient and demand coefficient, influence coefficient and sense degree coefficient to measure industry convergence level, and select such as convergence of the high and new technology industry, producer services and information industry to reflect the industrial convergence. Through the analysis found that service industry under the leading of industry convergence level is low, especially had the lowest levels of producer services and information services, and the convergence of service industry with the first and second industry is low, and service knowledge technology intensive services relative to the traditional service industry convergence level is low; Manufacturing industry dominated convergence level is generally low, industrial convergence of technology-intensive manufacturing is lower than the labor-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing, manufacturing and service industries have not formed interaction fusion; The industry convergence of across china interval has obvious difference. East industry convergence level is higher, and the Midwest industry convergence level is low.
Secondly, through the analysis of the current situation of the industrial structure, and build the mathematical function model to analyze the effect of the industrial convergence to industrial structure transformation, and at the same time using panel data econometric analysis method to empirical test the impact on the industrial convergence to the transformation of industrial structure. Research found that:at present our country industrial structure present serious unreasonable phenomena, such as imbalance among three industrial sectors and industries structure distribution is not reasonable; Convergence of producer services promote China's industrial structure transformation; Hi-tech industry convergence has an adverse effect on country industrial structure transformation; Direct convergence of information industry is conducive to China's industrial structure transformation, and the completely convergence is bad for our country industrial structure transformation, the main reason is that the information industry convergence and the tertiary industry convergence is lower than the second industry; Between income level and industrial structure transformation presents "U" type curve relation and opening to the outside world, government spending increase the level of industrial structure transformation in our country.
Again, through researching to the industrial convergence and transformation of factor structure found that capital deepening in recent years in China, the contribution rate of capital to economic growth increases, while the contribution of labor and technology rate declined year by year. Labor force transfer from primary industry to the second and third industry, but more to traditional industry and modern technology intensive industries increase small. Investment in fixed assets mainly flows into the manufacturing industry, the real estate industry and other industries, and less investment in modern service industry; Producer services convergence and information industry convergence are both significant impact on employment structure of our country, they can effectively promote the labor force transfer from the primary industry and second industry to tertiary industry, and the hi-tech industry convergence effect on labor force structure was not significant; Industrial convergence have a significant role in promoting capital structure and capital deepening, namely industrial convergence would lead to capital transfer to the third industry, and promote the development of our country change form the labor-intensive to capital intensive development mode; Industrial convergence is conducive to significantly increase China's total factor of birth rate, the producer services convergence and information industry convergence impact on technical efficiency improvement is larger, high and new technology industry convergence have bigger influence on the technological progress; Level of marketization and human capital and research have certain promoting effect on structure transformation.
Then, through to research the relationship between the industrial convergence and demand structure transformation found that:demand structure exists serious imbalance in our country, main aspect is the final consumption rate is falling, and rate of capital formation is rising and eventually over the final consumption rate. Residents consumption has inadequate and has a downward trend, but the proportion of government spending has constantly increase; Industrial convergence is beneficial to increase the rate of final consumption demand in China, reduced investment demand rate; Convergence of producer services promote the rate of net exports, and the high and new technology industry convergence and the information industry convergence have negative effects on rate of net exports; Industrial convergence can effectively improve the residents consumption rate, pull China's domestic demand, reduce external dependence.
Finally, through dynamic econometric analysis relation between the industry convergence and industrial structure found that:there has a long-term equilibrium relationship between the industry convergence to industrial structure, employment structure, capital structure, energy structure and regional economic structure, industry convergence can effectively promote economic structure transformation in our country, but in the short term there are still some unreasonable negative influence; Industrial convergence is conducive to industrial employment structure, capital structure and energy structure transformation, industry convergence has promoting to technology intensive industry, and it is greater than the capital intensive industry and labor intensive industry; Science and technology innovation level, environmental regulation, and ownership structure factors is conducive to our country industrial structure transformation.
Contribution of this paper is mainly manifested in the following several aspects: first, based on the direct consumption coefficient and demand coefficient and sense degree coefficient, influence coefficient of the input-output analysis method, and using industry convergence of the high and new technology industry, productive service industry, information industry of our country to comprehensive analysis the current situation of industry convergence; Secondly, this paper constructs a theory mathematical analysis model of the industrial convergence to the industrial structure transformation, element structure and demand structure effect, analyzed the impact of industrial convergence to the transformation of economic structure; Finally, this paper uses multiple indicators from different aspects to measurement the transformation of economic structure, and uses a variety of econometric model to empirical test the effect of industrial convergence to economic structure transformation in our country, relative to the existing literature this has more realistic significance.
引文
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