摘要
本文主要研究了中国通货膨胀对宏观经济的门限效应和主要影响因素。其中门限效应包括三个方面:通货膨胀对经济增长的门限效应、对金融发展的门限效应以及对金融发展和经济增长之间关系的门限效应。通货膨胀对宏观经济的门限效应意味着,当通货膨胀超出门限水平就会对宏观经济造成显著的负面影响,又结合中国的物价走势,识别影响通货膨胀门限效应的主要因素对于通货膨胀的有效治理具有重要作用。以上问题的研究对于中央银行制定并实施有针对性的货币政策具有重要的应用价值。
本论文主要包括以下有特色的研究工作:
(1)以通货膨胀在何种水平下将对经济增长产生负面影响的通货膨胀门限值为研究对象,通过建立门限回归模型,估计了1978年至2009年中国通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限水平。结果表明:通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限值为5%,当通货膨胀超过5%时,会对经济增长带来显著的负面影响。研究结果不仅为中央银行实施货币政策提供了一个明确的数字目标:保持通货膨胀在5%以下,还拓展了通货膨胀目标制在我国实施的讨论,在技术层面完善了通货膨胀目标量化和预测的可操作性,为中国通货膨胀目标制的实施提供重要支持。
(2)通过构建通货膨胀对金融发展的门限回归模型,估计了1978年至2010年中国通货膨胀对金融发展的最优门限水平。实证结果表明:根据所选金融发展指标的不同,1978年至2010年中国通货膨胀对金融发展的最优门限值为3%或5%,当通货膨胀超过5%时,金融发展受到全面抑制。研究结论不仅再一次强调了中国的货币政策目标:保持通货膨胀在5%以下,还证实了金融系统是非常重要的通货膨胀非线性影响经济增长的渠道。
(3)以通货膨胀对金融发展和通货膨胀对经济增长的最优门限值为标准将1996年第1季度至2011年第1季度的样本划分为高通货膨胀和低通货膨胀两类,检验了金融发展和经济增长之间的关系是否会随着通货膨胀的高低而有所不同。结果表明:在低通货膨胀环境下,金融发展对经济增长有显著的促进作用,而在高通货膨胀环境下,金融发展的经济增长效应不显著,这就促使政府部门在研究有关金融发展政策时要充分考虑当时的通货膨胀水平。金融发展和经济增长在不同通货膨胀背景下表现出的非线性关系再一次证实了稳定物价、抑制通胀的重要性。
(4)通过构建包括过剩流动性、需求拉动、成本推动以及国外通胀传递四类因素的通货膨胀动态模型,判断出各因素影响通货膨胀的相对重要程度,在实证判断的基础上,对现实经济中通货膨胀的形成机制进行逻辑上的因果关系阐述。结果表明:中国通货膨胀的主要影响因素为流动性过剩,需求拉动次之,成本推动排第三,国外通胀传递对通货膨胀的影响最小。究其根源,现有汇率体制下央行由于巨额外汇储备而向市场投放过量货币的货币被动超发以及信贷扩张是造成流动性过剩的主要原因。过度需求一方面来源于净出口扩大形成巨额外汇储备,而留在国内的庞大的纯购买力;另一方面,样本期间相对宽松的宏观经济环境推动总需求扩张。过剩流动性和过度需求相互影响,过度需求以市场上充裕的货币供应和宽松的宏观政策环境为条件,两者相互作用,共同推动物价上涨。
The thesis mainly researches the threshold effect of inflation on macro-economy and the main influencing factors of inflation in China. Among the threshold effect, there are three aspects including threshold effect of inflation on economic growth, threshold effect of inflation on financial development and threshold effect of inflation on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Threshold effect of inflation on macro-economy means when inflation exceeds threshold level, it will obviously exert negative impact on it. Combining it with Chinese price trend, identifing the main factors of influencing threshold level of inflation is very important for efficiently managing inflation. Researching the problems above has very important application value for central bank working out and implementing well targeted monetary policy.
It mainly includes the following distinctive research work and conclusions.
Firstly, regarding threshold level of inflation above which inflation will exert negative impact on economic growth as research subject, it estimates the threshold level of inflation in China from 1978 to 2009 using the threshold regression model. The result suggests that the optimal threshold level of inflation on economic growth in China is 5 percent. When inflation exceeds 5 percent, it will obviously exert negative impact on economic growth. The result not only supplies a specific digital target that keeping inflation below 5 percent for China's central bank to implement monetary policy, but also helps to expand the discussion of implementation of inflation targeting in China, improves the operation of inflation target quantization and forcast, and provides important support for implementation of inflation targeting in China.
Secondly, by building an threshold regression model, it estimates the threshold level of inflation on financial development in China from 1978 to 2010. Empirical evidence shows that the optimal threshold level of inflation on financial development is 3 percent or 5 percent depending on different financial development indices. When inflation exceeds 5 percent, financial development will be all-around depressed. This conclusion not only highlights Chinese monetary policy target which is keeping inflation below 5 percent, but also verifies financial development is an very important channel through which inflation affects growth in a nonlinear fashion.
Thirdly, with threshold of inflation on financial development and threshold of inflation on economic growth as standards, it divides the sample from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2011 into high inflation and low inflation and investigates whether the relationship between financial development and economic growth varies according to inflation. Empirical evidence shows that on condition of low inflation, financial development exerts a significant positive effect on economic growth, while on conditon of high inflation, the growth effect of financial development appears to be insignificant. The conclusion can urge government department consider the level of inflation when they investigate relevant financial development policy. The nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth under different inflation circumstances verifies the importance of price stabilization once more.
Finally, by developing an inflation dynamic model containing excess liquidity, excess-demand, cost-push and foreign inflation delivery, we verdict the factor’s relative importance on inflation. And on the basis of empirical results we articulate the logical causality of the inflation formation mechanism in real economy. Empirical evidence shows that among the four factors of inflation, excess liquidity has the most important effect, followed by excess-demand, and the cost-push, and the foreign inflation delivery has the least effect. Trace to its source, the main reason for excess liquidity are central bank’s passive money supply in order to hedge great foreign exchange under the existing exchange rate system and credit expansion. Excess demand comes from the following two aspects, on one hand, net exports expanding formulats a huge foreign reserve and stays pure purchasing power in demostic, on the other hand, the relatively loose macroeconomic environment to promote demand expansion. In a word, Excess liquidity and excess demand act or react on each other, excess demand is on condition of excess money supply in the market and loose macroscopic policy environment. They interact and push up prices.
引文
北京大学经济研究中心宏观组. 2008.流动性的度量及其与资产价格的关系[J].金融研究, 9:44-55.
白钦先,张志文. 2008.金融发展与经济增长:中国的经验研究[J].南方经济,9:17-32.
宾国强. 1999.实际利率、金融深化与中国的经济增长[J].经济科学, 3:32-38.
陈彦斌. 2008.中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线研究[J].经济研究, 12:50-64.
陈尊厚. 2008.中国金融发展对经济增长影响的统计研究[D].天津:天津财经大学.
范从来. 2004.论货币政策中间目标的选择[J].金融研究, 6:123-129.
范志勇. 2008.中国通货膨胀是工资成本推动型吗?——基于超额工资增长率的实证研究[J].经济研究, 8:102-112.
范志勇,向弟海. 2006.汇率和国际市场价格冲击对国内价格波动的影响[J].金融研究, 2:36-43.
高铁梅. 2009.计量经济分析方法与建模(第二版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社.
高铁梅,李颖,陈飞,南兰. 2008.我国物价波动特征和成因的实证分析[J].经济学动态, 1:14-20.
国家统计局课题组. 2005.我国现阶段通货膨胀可容忍区间探讨——《通货膨胀趋势研究》课题系列之二[J].统计研究, 5:3-5.
韩平,李斌,崔永. 2005.我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择[J].经济研究, 10:37-47.
黄益平,王勋,华秀萍. 2010.中国通货膨胀的决定因素[J].金融研究, 6:46-59.
孔东民. 2007.通货膨胀阻碍了金融发展呢与经济增长吗?——基于一个门槛回归模型的新检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 10:56-66.
李玉双. 2009.市场化进程中我国通货膨胀对经济增长影响的研究[D].湖南:湖南大学.
刘金全,谢卫东. 2003.中国经济增长与通货膨胀的动态相关性[J].世界经济, 6:48-57.
刘楷. 1995.我国通货膨胀的影响因素与治理措施[J].中国工业经济, 6:23-27.
吕光明. 2007.潜在产出和产出缺口估计方法的比较研究[J].中央财经大学学报, 5:93-96.
[美]罗伯特S.平狄克,丹尼尔L.鲁宾费尔德. 2005.计量经济模型和经济预测(第四版)[M].钱小军等译.北京:机械工业出版社.
孟猛. 2003.金融深化和经济增长间的因果关系——对我国的实证分析[J].南开经济研究,1:72-74.
乔家立. 2011.中国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于金融发展综合评价指标体系[D].北京:中国青年政治学院.
冉茂盛,张宗益,钟子明. 2003.中国经济增长与金融发展关联性的实证分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版), 26(2):136-140.
任立民. 2008.货币供应量与经济增长、通货膨胀、资产价格的协整研究[D].厦门:厦门大学.
施建淮,傅雄广,徐伟. 2008.人民币汇率变动对我国价格水平的传递[J].经济研究, 7:52-64.
史永东,武志,甄红线. 2003.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].预测, 22(4):1-6.
唐东波. 2008.人民币汇率与通货膨胀率的动态关系研究[J].经济科学, 4:39-51.
谈儒勇. 1999.中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究[J].经济研究, 10:53-61.
王海燕,杨方廷,刘鲁. 2006.标准化系数与偏相关系数的比较与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,9:150-155.
王晋斌,李楠. 2009.中国汇率传递效应的实证分析[J].经济研究, 4:17-27.
武志. 2010.金融发展与经济增长:来自中国的经验分析[J].金融研究, 5:58-68.
熊鹏,王飞. 2008.中国金融深化对经济增长内生传导渠道研究——基于内生增长理论的实证比较[J].金融研究, 2:51-60.
杨继生. 2009.通胀预期、流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀的动态性质[J].经济研究, 1:106-117.
杨丽萍,陈松林,王红. 2008.货币供应量、银行信贷与通货膨胀的动态关系研究[J].管理世界, 6:168-169.
杨子晖,温雪莲. 2010.价格国际传递链中的“中国因素”研究——基于非线性Granger因果检验[J].统计研究, 2:87-93.
阎虎勤.2008.中国经济增长与通货膨胀相互关系及其协调性的研究[D].厦门:厦门大学.
易纲. 1996.中国金融资产结构分析及政策含义[J].经济研究,12:26-33.
袁云峰,曹旭华. 2007.金融发展与经济增长效率的关系实证研究[J].统计研究, 24(5):60-66.
张珂,严丹,傅勇. 2009.中国金融发展与经济增长阈效应研究——来自中国各省市平行数据的经验证据[J].上海金融, 10:11-16.
张明. 2007.流动性过剩的测量、根源和风险涵义[J].世界经济, 11:44-55.
张延. 2010.扩张性财政政策的中长期后果:通货膨胀——凯恩斯主义模型对1992-2009年中国数据的检验[J].经济学动态, 1:43-47.
赵振全,于震,杨东亮. 2007.金融发展与经济增长的非线性关联研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,7:54-62.
周其仁. 2010.中国做对了什么[M].北京:北京大学出版社.
朱映凤,傅强,袁晨. 2011.中国通货膨胀门限值的实证检验[J].管理科学, 3:94-100.
邹菊芳,黄新飞,程小平. 2009.中国通货膨胀与经济增长关系的再估计[J].统计与决策, 24:103-105.
S.Ahmed, M.G.Mortaza. 2006. Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh:1981-2005[R]. Bangladesh Bank Working Paper Series, No.0604.
J.Aizenman, M.Hutchison. 2011. In?ation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets[J]. World Development, 39(5):712–724.
W.R.J.Alexzander. 1997. Inflation and economic growth: evidence from a growth equation[J]. Applied Economics, 29:233-238.
A.Almounsor. 2010. Inflation Dynamics in Yemen: An Empirical Analysis[J].IMF Working Paper, No.144.
S.Ahmed, M.G.Mortaza. 2006. Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh:1981-2005[EB/OL]. http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/.
P.Arestis, P.O.Demetriades, K.B.Luintel. 2001. Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(1):16-41.
R.Atje, B.Jovanovic. 1993. Stock Markets and Development[J]. European Economic Review, 37:632-640.
C.Azariadis, B.D.Smith. 1996. Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 1:309-332.
A.Banerjee, P.Mizen, B.Russell. 2007. Inflation, Relative Price Variability and the Markup: Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom[J]. Economic Modelling, 24:82-100.
A.Banerjee, B.Russell. 2005. In?ation and Measures of the Markup[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27:289-306.
M.Barnes, J.H.Boyd, B.D.Smith. 1999. Theories of Money, Credit and Aggregate Economic Activity Inflation and Asset Returns[J]. European Economic Review,43:737-754.
R.J.Barro. 1995. In?ation and Economic Growth[J]. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin,166–176.
E.Basco, L.D’Amato, L.Garegnani. 2009. Understanding the Money Prices Relationship under Low and High Inflation Regimes: Argentina 1977~2006[J]. Central Bank of Argentina Working Paper.
V.R.Bencivenga, B.D.Smith. 1991. Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 58:195-209.
J.C.Berthelemy. A.Varoudakis. 1996. Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development[J]. Oxford Economic papers, 48:300-328.
P.S.Bhattacharya, D.D.Thomakos. 2008. Forecasting Industry-level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-through Matter?[J]. International Journal of Forecasting, 24:134–150.
A.Bick. 2010. Threshold Effects of In?ation on Economic Growth in Developing Countries[J]. Economics Letters, 108:126–129.
M.Bittencourt. 2011. In?ation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil[J]. Economic Modelling, 28(1):91-99.
O.J.Blanchard, N.Kiyotaki. 1987. Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of AggregateDemand[J]. American Economic Review, 77:647-666.
L.Bonato. 2007. Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.119.
A.W.A.Boot, A.V.Thakor. 1997. Financial System Architecture[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 10(3):693-733.
J.H.Boyd, R.Levine, B.D.Smith. 1996. Inflation and Financial Market Performance[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Working Paper, No.573.
J.H.Boyd, R.Levine, B.D.Smith. 2001. The Impact of In?ation on Financial Sector Performance[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47:221-248.
J.H.Boyd, B.D.Smith. 1998. Capital Market Imperfections in a Monetary Growth Model[J]. Economic Theory, 11:241–273.
G.Brouwer, N.Ericsson. 1998. Modeling Inflation in Australia[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4): 43-49.
M.Bruno, W.Easterly. 1996. Inflation and growth: In Search of Stable Relationship[J]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,78(3).
N.Budina, W.Maliszewski, G.Menil, G.Turlea. 2006. Money, In?ation and Output in Romania, 1992-2000[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25:330-347.
J.Bullard, J.W.Keating. 1995. The Long-run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36:477-496.
C.Calderón, L.Liu. 2003. The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 72:321– 334.
J.Campos, N.R.Ericsson, D.F.Hendry. 2005. Editors' Introduction to General to Specific Modelling[M]. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
L.Carranza, J.E.Galdon-Sanchez, J.Gomez-Biscarri. 2009. Exchange Rate and In?ation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 89:98–108.
Y.J.Cho. 1984. On the Liberalization of Financial System anf Efficiency of Capital Allocation[D]. California: Stanford University.
S.Choi, B.D.Smith, J.H.Boyd. 1996. Inflation, Financial Markets, and Capital Formation[J]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78(3):9-35.
D.K.Christopoulos, E.G.Tsionas. 2004. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 73(1):55-74.
J.De Gregorio. 1993. In?ation, Taxation, and Long-run Growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31:271–298.
L.Deidda. 2006. Interaction Between Economic and Financial Development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(2):233–248.
L.Deidda, B.Fattouh. 2002. Non-Linearity Between Finance and Growth[J]. Economics Letters, 74:339–345.
P.O.Demetriades, K.A.Hussein. 1996. Does Financial development Cause Economic Growth? Time-series Evidence From 16 Countries[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 51:387-411.
E.Dewan, S.Hussein, S.Morling. 1999. Modelling Inflation Processes in Fiji[R]. Reserve Bank of Fiji, No.02.
R.Dornbusch, A.Reynoso. 1989. Financial factors in the economic development[J].The American Economic Review, 79(2):204-209.
R.Dornbusch, S.Fischer, C.Kearney. 1996. Macroeconomics[M]. Sydney: The Mc-Graw-Hill Companies,Inc..
D.Durevall. 1998. The Dynamics of Chronic Inflation in Brazil[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4):423-432.
J.Duesnberry. 1950. The Mechanics of Inflation[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(2):144-149.
J.Dutta, S.Kapur. 1998. Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 65(3):551-572.
W.B.English. 1999. In?ation and Financial Sector Size[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44:379–400.
R.Espinoza, H.Leon, A.Prasad. 2010. Estimating the Inflation-growth Nexus—A Smooth Transition Model[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.76.
O.E.Ergungor. 2008. Financial system structure and economic growth: Structure matters[J]. International Review of Economics and Finance, 17(2):292-305.
S.Fischer. 1993. The Role of Macro-economic Factors in Growth[J]. Journal of Monetay Economics, 32(3):485-512.
A.Flamini. 2007. In?ation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-through[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26:1113-1150.
M.Friedman. 1956. The Quantity Theory of Money—A Restatement[M]. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
J.M.Frimpong, E.F.Oteng-abayie. 2010. When is Inflation Harmful? Estimating the Threshold Effect for Ghana[J]. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 2(3): 232-239.
M.J.Fry. 1978. Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10(4):464-475.
M.J.Fry. 1980. Saving, Investment, Growth and the Cost of Financial Repression[J].World Development, 8(4):317-327.
V.Galbis. 1977. Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-Development Countries: A Theoretical Approach[J]. Journal of Development Studies, 13(2):58-72.
A.Ghosh, S.Phillips. 1998. Warning: Inflation May be Harmful to Growth[J].IMF Staff Papers, 45(4):672-710.
M.Gillman, M.Harris, L.Matyas. 2002. Inflation and Growth: Some Theory and Evidence[A]. Berlin:10th International Conference on Panel Data (July).
V.Gokal, S.Hanif. 2004. Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth[J]. Economics Departmen Reserve Bank of Fiji Working Paper, No.04.
W.R.Goldsmith. 1969. Financial Structure and Development[M]. New Haven: Yale University Press.
J.Greenwood, B.Jovanovic. 1990. Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income[J]. The Journal of Political Economy, 98(1):1076-1107.
J.Greenwood, B.D.Smith. 1997. Financial Markets in Development, and the Development of Financial Markets[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21:145-181.
J.G.Gurley, E.S.Shaw. 1955. Financial Aspects of Economic Development[J]. The American Economic Review, 45:515-538.
J.G.Gurley, E.S.Shaw. 1956. Financial Intermediaries and the Saving-Investment Process[J]. Journal of Finance, 11:257-276.
J.H.Haslag, J.Koo. 1999. Financial Repression, Financial Development and Economic Growth[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper, No.9902.
R.Horváth, L.Komárek, F.Rozsypal. 2011. Does Money Help Predict In?ation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe[J]. Economic Systems, In Press.
H.C.Huang, S.C.Lin. 2009. Non-linear Finance-growth Nexus[J]. Economics of Transition, 17(3):439–466.
H.C.Huang, S.C.Lin, D.H.Kim, C.C.Yeh. 2010. In?ation and the Finance–growth Nexus[J]. Economic Modelling, 27(2):229-236.
F.S.Hung. 2003. Inflation, Financial Development, and Economic Growth[J]. International Review of Economics and Finance, 12:45–67.
D.Heyman, A.Leijonhufvud. 1995. High Inflation [M]. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
E.Huybens, B.D.Smith. 1998. Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 81:353-400.
E.Huybens, B.D.Smith. 1999. Inflation, Financial Markets and Long-run Real Activity[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 43:283-315.
M.Ivrendi, B.Guloglu. 2010. Monetary Shocks, Exchange Rates and Trade Balances: Evidence from In?ation Targeting Countries[J]. Economic Modelling,27:1144–1155.
A.Jalil, M.Feridun ,Y.Ma. 2010. Finance-growth Nexus in China Revisited: New Evidence from Principal Components and ARDL Bounds Tests[J]. International Review of Economics and Finance, 19:189–195.
J.Jongwanich, D.Park. 2009. In?ation in Developing Asia[J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 20:507–518.
K.Juselius. 1992. Domestic and Foreign Effects on Prices in an Open Economy: The Case of Denmark[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 4:401-428.
A.R.Kemal, A.Qayyum, M.N.Hanif. 2007. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Panel of High Income Countries[J]. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 12(1):1-34.
M.S.Khan. 2002. Inflation, Financial Deepening, and Economic Growth[R].IMF Paper for Banco de Mexico Conference on Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Markets and Economic Development.
M.S.Khan, A.S.Senhadji. 2000. Financial Development and Economic Growth[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.209.
M.S.Khan, A.S.Senhadji. 2001. Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth[J]. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1):1-21.
M.S.Khan, A.S.Senhadji, B.D.Smith. 2006. Inflation and Financial Depth[J]. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 10(2):165-182.
B.G.Kim. 2010. Identifying a permanent markup shock and its implications for macroeconomic dynamics[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34:1471–1491.
D.H.Kim, S.C.Lin, Y.B.Sun. 2008. Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Financial Development[J]. Macroeconomic Dynamics.
T.Kinda. 2011. Modeling Inflation in Chad[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.57.
R.G.King, R.Levine. 1993a. Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32:513-542.
R.G.King, R.Levine. 1993b. Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3):717-738.
E.F.Koenig. 2003. Is the Markup a Useful Real-time Predictor of In?ation?[J]. Economics Letters, 80:261–267
S.Kremer, D.Nautz, A.Bick. 2008. Inflation and Growth: New Evidence From a Panel Threshold Analysis[R]. Goethe University Working Paper.
S.Kremer, A.Bick, D.Nautz. 2009. Inflation and Growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis[R]. Freie University Working Paper.
T.Kurita. 2010. Empirical Modeling of Japan’s Markup and In?ation, 1976–2000[J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 21:552–563.
R.Levine. 1997. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda[J]. Journal of Economic Literature, 35:688-726.
R.Levine. 1998. The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-run Economic Growth[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 30(3):537-558.
R.Levine. 2005. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence[A]. In: P.Aghion, S.Durlauf: Handbook of Economic Growth[M]. The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, 1:865-934.
R.Levine, N.Loayza, T.Beck. 2000. Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and causes[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46:31-77.
R.Levine, S.Zervos. 1996. Looking at the Facts :What we Know about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Analysis[J]. American Economic Review, 83:426-430.
R.Levine, S.Zervos. 1998. Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth[J]. American Economic Review, 88(3):537-548.
A.López-villavicencio, V.Mignon. 2011. On the Impact of Inflation on Output Growth: Does the Level of Inflation Matter?[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(2):135-148.
R.E.Lucas. 1988. On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22:3-42.
W.Maliszewski. 2003. Modeling Inflation in Georgia[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.212.
A.B.Masten, F.Coricelli, I.Masten. 2008. Non-linear Growth Effects of Financial Development: Does Financial Integration Matter?[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27:295-313.
D.J.Mathieson. 1980. Financial Reform and Stabilization Policy in a Developing Economy[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 7(3):359-395.
R.I.Mckinnon. 1973. Money and Capital in Economic Development[M]. Washington DC: the Brookings Institution.
R.I.Mckinnon. 1993. The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy, 2nd Edition[M]. Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.
M.A.Moradi. 1998. Nonlinear Modeling of Inflation in Iran[R].Liverpool Research Papers in Economics Finance and Accounting, No.9908.
Y.Mubarik. 2005. Inflation and Growth: an Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan[J]. SBP Research Bulletin, 1(1):1-12.
R.Mundell. 1965. Growth, Stability and Inflationary Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 73:97-109.
P.K.Narayan, S.Narayan, R.Smyth. 2009. Understanding the Inflation-output Nexus for China[J]. China Economic Review, 20(1):82-90.
K.Nell. 2000. Is low inflation a precondition for faster growth? The case of South Africa[J]. University of Kent, Department of Economics Discussion paper, No.11.
M.O.Odedokun. 1996. Alternative Econometric Approaches for Analysing the Role of the Financial Sector in Economic Growth[J].Journal of Development Economics, 50(1):119-146.
T.Omay, E.Kan. 2010. Re-examining the Threshold Effects in the Inflation–growth nexus with Cross-sectionally Dependent Non-linear Panel: Evidence from Six Industrialized Economies[J]. Economic Modelling, 27(5):996-1005.
F.Rioja, N.Valev. 2004a. Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development[J]. Economic Inquiry, 42:127–140.
F.Rioja, N.Valev. 2004b. Does One Size Fit all?: a Re-examination of the Finance and Growth Relationship[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 74:429–447.
J.Robinson. 1952. The Generalization of the General Theory[A]. The Rate of Interest, and Other Essays[M]. London: McMillan.
P.L.Rousseau, D.Vuthipadadorn. 2005. Finance, Investment, and Growth: Time Series Evidence from 10 Asian Economies[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27:87–106.
P.L.Rousseau, P.Wachtel. 2002. Inflation Thresholds and the Fiance-Growth Nexus[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6):777-793.
P.L.Rousseau, H.Yilmazkuday. 2009. In?ation, Financial Development, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis[J]. Economic Systems, 33:310–324.
E.Sacerdoti, Y.Xiao. 2001. Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar:1971-2000[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.168.
P.Samuelson. 1992. Macroeconomics[M]. US:McGraw-Hill Inc..
M.Sarel. 1996. Non-linear effects of inflation on economic growth[J]. IMF Staff Papers, 43:199-215.
J.A.Schumpeter. 1912. The Theory of Economic Development[M]. Mass.: Harvard University Press.
T.Sekine. 2001. Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan[R]. IMF Working Paper, No.82.
M.Seleteng. 2006. Inflation and Economic Growth:An Estimate of an Optimal Level of Inflation in Lesotho[R]. Central Bank of Lesotho Working Paper.
P.Sergii. 2009. Inflation and Economic Growth: the Non-linear Relationship. Evidence from CIS Countries[D]. Ukraine: Kyiv University.
J.Z.Shan, A.G.Morris, F.Sun. 2001. Financial Development and Economic Growth: AnEgg-and-Chichen Problem[J]. Review of International Economics, 9(3):443-454.
E.S.Shaw. 1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development[M]. New York: Oxford University Press.
S.L.Schreft, B.D.Smith. 1997. Money, Banking, and Capital[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 73:157-182.
A.Singh. 1997. Financial Liberalisation, Stock Markets and Economic development[J]. The Economic Journal, 107:771-782.
A.Smith. 1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations[M]. London: W Strahan and T Cadell.
B.D.Smith. 2003. Taking Intermediation Seriously[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(6):1319-1357.
R.Solow. 1956. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(3):65-94.
T.Swan. 1956. Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation[J]. Economic Record, 32(2):344-361.
A.P.Thirlwall, C.A.Barton. 1971. Inflation and Growth: the International Evidence[J]. Banca Nationale del lavoro Quarterly Review, 98(1):263-275.
J.Tobin. 1965. Growth, Stability and Inflationary Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 73:97-109.
M.P.Todaro. 2000. Economic Development[M]. New York: Addison Wesley Longman,Inc..
S.Van Wijnbergen. 1983. Credit Policy, Inflation and Growth in a Financially Repressed Economy[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 13:45-65.
A.Vaona, S.Schiavo. 2007. Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on the Long-run Effects of Inflation on Growth[J]. Economics Letters, 94(3):452-458.
M.Vizek, T.Broz. 2007. Modeling Inflation in Croatia[EB/OL]. http;//www.eizg.hr.
P.Wachtel. 2003. How Much Do We Really Know About Growth and Finance?[J] Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 33–47.