摘要
近年来,地价和房价不断上涨,成为社会关注的重要民生问题和政府宏观调控的重要关切点。地价和房价的关系引起了社会各界的激烈争论：一种观点认为土地价格的上涨提升了住房成本,由此导致了房价的上涨；另一种观点则认为地价占房价的比例有限,地价不是导致房价上涨的主要因素。社会各界的争论引起了学术界的关注,国内外学者们对地价房价的关系展开了大量的研究,并形成了“引致需求论”、“成本驱动论”和“互动论”等观点。这些研究大多基于城市经济学、新古典经济学和空间经济学等相关理论,关注地价与房价在长期均衡水平上的关系。但是现实中,房地产市场是不均衡的,当土地出让价格偏高或者偏低时,土地出让事件对房价造成瞬时的冲击,引起房价在短时间内的变化。在土地出让事件发生前后,市场的经济基本面几乎没有变化,但是房价却有了较大的波动。基于行为经济学和信息经济学的价格发现理论认为,除了经济基本面因素以外,信号等非经济基本面因素也带来了房价的变化。土地市场中偏高或者偏低的价格蕴含了新的信息和信号,传递到房地产市场,引起房价的变化。
本文从价格发现视角出发,研究土地出让价格信号对房价的单向影响作用。为了揭示土地出让价格信号影响房价的作用范围、扩散效应和楼盘差异性,本文利用杭州市的相关数据,在第四章至第七章中,分别从城市层面、城区层面和项目层面实证检验了土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用。第四章在城市层面,运用杭州主城区2006年1月～2010年12月199宗住宅用地交易数据和在此期间的新建商品住宅价格数据,构建ARMA模型,检验了土地出让价格信号对整个城市房价波动的影响作用。第五章将研究对象缩小到城区层面,借鉴事件研究法的思想,运用杭州主城区2006年1月～2010年3月177宗住宅用地交易数据和在此期间7个城区的新建商品住宅价格数据,检验了土地出让价格信号对城区房价水平的影响作用。第五章还检验了土地出让价格信号影响房价的不对称性和市场形势对土地出让价格信号影响房价的调节作用。第六章进一步将研究对象缩小到土地周边的项目层面,运用杭州主城区2006年1月～2010年3月177宗住宅用地交易数据和251个新建住宅楼盘的销售数据,分别检验了土地出让价格信号对距离地块1km以内的楼盘、1km～2km的楼盘和2km～3km的楼盘的影响作用,揭示了土地出让价格信号影响周边楼盘价格的扩散效应。第七章在前几章研究的基础上,运用杭州主城区2006年1月～2010年3月177宗住宅用地交易数据和251个新建商品住宅楼盘的销售数据,从供给和需求两个方面,构建了楼盘特征及其他因素对楼盘价格波动的影响模型,分析了土地出让价格信号影响房价的楼盘差异性。通过系统的理论与实证分析,本文主要得到以下结论：
第一,土地市场中的价格信号对房价有明显的影响作用。土地是房地产的原材料,土地的价格是住房成本的重要组成部分。地价反映了开发商对未来房地产市场的预期,偏低或者偏高的地价被认为蕴含了新的信息,这一信号传递到房地产市场中,会影响购房者的预期和决策,从而导致了房价的波动。
第二,在影响范围上,土地出让价格信号对出让地块所在城区的房价有显著的影响作用,对整个城市房价的影响不显著。土地和房地产区域性强,土地出让价格信号对房地产市场的影响具有区域性。某城区的地块出让后,土地出让价格信号对该地块所在城区的房价水平产生了显著的影响。但是土地出让价格信号影响范围有限,对整个城市的房价影响不显著。
第三,土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用具有不对称性：负向土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用大于正向土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用。在平稳的市场形势下,偏低的土地出让价格传递了负向信号,引起房价下跌。但是,偏高的土地出让价格被认为是多方面因素造成的,并不一定表示开发商对未来房价有乐观的预期,因此,正向土地出让价格信号对房价影响不明显。
第四,在好的市场形势下,正向土地出让价格信号对房价有显著推动作用。当房价连续多期持续上涨时,市场参与者容易形成房价继续上涨的预期。这时,正向土地出让价格信号正好印证了人们的这一预期,进一步强化了他们的信念,影响其购买决策,导致房价上涨。
第五,在土地出让价格信号影响房价的扩散效应上,土地出让价格信号以出让地块为中心,随着时间推移不断往外扩散影响周边楼盘。
第六,土地出让价格信号影响房价存在楼盘差异性。在负向土地出让价格信号影响下,高品质楼盘价格下降幅度比一般品质楼盘价格下降幅度小；销售后期的楼盘比销售前期的楼盘价格下降幅度小,大规模的楼盘比小规模的楼盘价格下降幅度小。
与已有的研究成果相比,本研究的创新点和学术价值主要体现在以下几个方面：
第一,揭示中国大陆背景下土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用。以往基于市场均衡理论城市层面的地价房价研究无法很好地解释土地出让事件对房价的冲击作用；而且,城市层面的数据掩盖了地块和楼盘的异质性,无法揭示地价对房价影响的楼盘差异性。本文从价格发现的视角出发,利用杭州城市、城区和项目层面的数据,实证研究了中国大陆背景下土地出让价格信号对房价的影响作用,深化和丰富了已有的相关研究。
第二,检验了房地产市场中市场形势对土地出让价格信号影响房价的调节作用。价格发现理论认为投资者厌恶风险的态度使得他们在好的市场形势下对负向信号的反应程度大于对正向信号的反应程度。本文在中国大陆房地产市场中,检验市场形势对土地出让价格信号影响房价的调节作用,得出了不一样的结论：市场形势对正向信号影响房价有正向的调节作用。这主要是因为中国大陆政府对房地产市场依赖,导致了市场参与者对市场信心充足,风险偏好大。他们倾向于接受符合房价上涨预期的信号,这使得好的市场形势与正向土地出让价格信号共同推动了房价的上涨。
第三,揭示了土地出让价格信号在空间范围内的扩散效应。很多学者对土地和房地产的空间性展开了研究,他们大多关注地价和房价的空间分布特征等问题,对房地产市场中信号的扩散效应研究较少。本文对此展开研究,并发现土地出让价格信号以出让地块为中心,随时间推移不断往外扩散影响周边楼盘。为这方面的相关研究做了有益的探索。
第四,解释了土地出让价格信号影响房价的楼盘差异性。本文从供给和需求两个方面,构建楼盘特征及其他因素对楼盘价格波动的影响模型,探索性地研究了在负向土地出让价格信号的影响下,楼盘特征等因素对楼盘价格波动的影响作用。
由于时间、精力和研究条件等方面的限制,本研究在以下几个方面存在不足：第一,仅关注土地出让价格对房价的单向影响作用,没有研究房价对地价的影响作用。第二,仅选取杭州2006年1月-2010年12月的相关数据,样本数据不够充足。第三,使用楼盘中各住宅单元价格的平均值衡量楼盘房价的方式不够准确。第四,未能有效控制宏观调控政策事件对房价的影响作用。第五,以杭州市为例展开研究得到的结论对其他城市的适用性有待考察。
可以从以下几个方面展开后续研究：第一,将房价对土地出让价格的影响作用纳入到研究框架中,构建土地出让价格和房价相互影响的模型。第二,进一步研究土地出让价格信号作用下消费者和开发商的预期和决策行为,揭示土地出让价格信号对房价的影响机理和路径。第三,准确测量宏观调控政策事件对房地产市场的影响。
In these years, land price and housing price are keeping increasing, which has become a serious problem related with people's livelihood and crucial state Macro-control issue. The relationship between land price and housing price has brought a lot of hot debate. There is one view that the rise of land price increases housing cost, leading to high housing price. While, another one argues that the proportion of land price to housing price is limited so land price is not the main reason of high housing price. The broad disputes draw abundant academic research and a lot of empirical studies have been done on this topic. There are three main viewpoints: derived demand view, cost drive view and interaction view. Most of these researches are based on Urban Economics, Neoclassical Economics and Spatial Economics; focus on the relationship of land price and housing price in the long-run equilibrium level. However, in the real world, real estate market is not always in equilibrium. Housing price may be shocked by land remising event if land price is relative high or low. Around the land remising event, housing price moves a lot without the changing of economic fundamentals. According to price discovery theory, which is based on Behavior Economics and Information Economics, besides the economic fundamentals, housing price movement is also caused by non-economic factors such as price signals in land market. Relative high or low land price is considered as containing new information, which may transmit to residential market and cause housing price move.
This paper, based on the price discovery theory, studies the unidirectional action of price signal of land remising on housing price. Using micro data of Hangzhou, it empirically testes the effects of land price signals on housing price on the city level, district level and project level from chapter four to chapter seven. In chapter four, with 199 transactional data of residential land in Hangzhou from January 2006 to December 2010 and time series data of housing price of new construction in Hangzhou city in that period, this paper constructs a ARMA model and tests the effects of land price signals on housing price of the city level. In chapter five, this paper narrows the target to district level, uses 177transactional data of residential land in Hangzhou from January 2006 to March 2010 and price data of new residential construction in the 7 districts of Hangzhou in this period to test the effects of land price signals on regional housing price with event study for reference. Besides, signal effect asymmetry and the moderator effect of market situation are included in the model and tested. In chapter six, this paper deepens the research and narrows the target to projects around the remising land, with 177transactional data of residential land in Hangzhou from January 2006 to March 2010 and sales data of 251 new residential projects, tests the effect of price signal of land remising on projects within 1km, 1km-2km and 2km-3km from remising land respectively and implies the diffusion effect of price signal of land remising in space. In chapter seven, with 177transactional data of residential land in Hangzhou from January 2006 to March 2010 and sales data of 251 new residential projects, based on hedonic model, this paper constructs a model explaining the effect of houses characteristics and other factors on housing price fluctuation, analyzes the project differentiation about effect of price signal of land remising on housing price. From systemic theory and empirical analysis, several conclusions are got.
First, price signal in the land market produces the fluctuation of housing price. Land market and real estate market are closely related. The land is the raw material of real estate and the land price plays a big role in the residential cost. Land price shows the expectation of real estate developer to real estate market in the future; either lower price or higher price is thought of containing new information. Once this signal is delivered to real estate market, the expectation and decision of house buyers is influenced with the result of fluctuation of house price.
Second, according to the effect scope, price signal of land remising only influences the housing price in the area of remising land greatly. However, it doesn't have the significant effect on the housing price of the whole city. The effect of price signal of land remising is regional with the strong regionalism of land and real estate. After the land is remised, the price signal of land remising has the significant effect on this area. However, with the limitation of effect scope of price signal, it doesn't have the significant effect to the whole city.
Third, the effect of price signal of land remising on housing price is asymmetric. The effect of negative price signal on housing price is more significant than that of positive price signal. When the market situation is stable, lower price of land remising delivers the negative signal, leading to the decrease of housing price. However, higher price of land remising is probably thought that real estate developers suffer winner curse or increase price on the purpose, so the positive signal doesn't have the significant effect to housing price.
Fourth, in good market situation, positive price signal of land remising contributes to the housing price significantly. In the good market situation with the continuous increase of housing price, market participants are more like to expect the increase of housing price. At the same time, the positive signal in the land market proves the public's expectation that housing price will continue to increase, strengthens their faith and influences their consume decision, which leads to the increase of housing price.
Fifth, price signal continually diffuses outwards with the time with remising land at the center. The price signal diffuses to the project which is lkm far away from remising land in that month. One month later, the price signal of land remising diffuses outwards to the project which is lkm-2km far away from that land. Two months later, the price signal of land remising expands outwards to the project which is 2km-3km far away from that land.
Sixth, under the influence of negative price signal of land remising, the price of high quality house decreases smaller than the price of normal quality house does. The negative price signal of land remising produces the decrease of housing price, but housing prices with different characters decrease different. Compared to normal quality house, the high quality house with decoration and high greening rate suffer the negative signal price of land remising less, so the price decreases smaller.
Compared with existing researches, the innovations and academic value of this paper is presented on the bellowing parts:
First, this paper discovers the effect of price signal of land remising on housing price under the background of China mainland. The prior land price and housing price researches which are based on the market equilibrium theory cannot explain the effect of land remising events on housing price. The city level data covers the characteristics of project so those researches cannot explain project differentiation about effect of land price on housing price. Based on the view of price discovery theory, with the data of city level, district level and project level, this paper empirically studies the effect of price signal of land remising on housing price under the background of China mainland and richens the existing relevant researches.
Second, this paper testes the moderator effect of market situation between price signal of land remising and housing price in real estate market. The risk-avoiding attitude of investors make the reaction to negative signal is bigger than reaction to positive signal in good market situation in price discovery theory. The paper tested the moderator effect of market situation between price signal of land remising and housing price in real estate market and got the different conclusion that there is positive moderator effect of market situation between positive signal and housing price. In good market situation, positive price signal of land remising contributes the increase of housing price. It is mainly because that the dependence of governments in China mainland on real estate market makes the market participants with the abundant market information and low risk-avoiding. They tend to receive the signal which is accord with expectation of housing price increasing, so the good market situation and positive price signal of land remising motivate the housing price increase together.
Third, this paper discloses the diffusion effect of price signal of land remising in the space scope. Many researches did regional researches about the land and real estate; however, they focus on the topics about space distribution characteristics of land price and housing price while pay less attention of space diffusion effect of price signal of land remising. The paper studies this topic and finds that price signal of land remising centers at remising land, diffuses outwards continually with time.
Fourth, this paper demonstrates the project differentiation of housing price fluctuation brought by price signal of land remising and its influence factors. In the housing price relevant researches, many researchers demonstrated the effect of housing characteristics on housing price with hedonic model. Based on hedonic model, this paper builds the effect model of the housing characteristics and other factors on housing price fluctuation, analyzes the effect of housing characteristics on housing price fluctuation, and discovers that under the effect of negative price signal of land remising, price of high quality project decreases smaller than price of normal quality project does.
With the limitation of time, energy, research condition and so on, there are some shortages bellowing in this research: First, this paper just chose the data from January, 2006 to December 2010 in Hangzhou, the sample data is not sufficient. Second, this research is based on Hangzhou, we still need to analyze whether it is suitable for other cities. Third, it is not accurate enough of using mean value of unit as the variable of housing price. Fourth, this paper does not control the impact of big political events to housing price successfully. In the future, we can continue the research in these parts: first, study the effect of housing price fluctuation on land remising price and build the model of mutual influence between land remising price and housing price. Second, study the expectation and decision making of consumers and real estate developers under and price signal of land remising, disclose the effect function and path of price signal of land remising on housing price. Third, test and measure the impact of macro-economic control on real estate market accurately.
引文
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