摘要
定量化评估溢油污染对海洋生物资源的损害程度一直是国内外溢油污染案件赔偿过程中亟待解决的科学难题。本文在总结分析我国溢油污染生态损害索赔,海洋溢油生态损害评估技术和生物资源定量化评估方法的研究和应用现状的基础上,以建立溢油污染对海洋生物资源损害数值评估模式为主线,对其主要组成部分海上溢油行为归宿模型、油污染海洋生物暴露影响模型、溢油污染生物资源损害评估系统开发与应用等内容展开研究。主要研究内容及成果概述如下:
1.通过模拟污染物的迁移转化及其对暴露生物的损害过程,提出溢油污染生物资源损害的数值评估模式:在污染事故现场监测数据的基础上,首先通过潮流数值模型和溢油行为归宿模型获得海上溢油污染的时空分布,然后利用生物暴露模型和急性毒性模型模拟不同类型海洋生物的活动方式以及暴露于油污染时的急性毒性效应,最后得到溢油污染对海洋生物资源的损害评估结果。
2.应用“油粒子”理论建立三维溢油行为归宿模型(OSTFM),用于模拟溢油在海洋环境中的时空动态分布:包括适用于近岸海区的三维潮流模型;能够模拟固定点源瞬时泄露、固定点源连续泄露、移动点源连续泄露以及多个点源连续泄露等溢油泄露模式,以及模拟溢油的漂移、扩散、蒸发、乳化、溶解、分散、密度和粘度变化等运动和风化过程;采用可动态调整的计算网格和“粒子—浓度”转换方法计算水中石油烃浓度场。
3.通过对油污染生物急性毒性试验数据的统计回归,建立能够反映溢油污染和海洋生物“时间—浓度—效应”相互关系的生物急性毒性模型(OSATM),可用于计算实际溢油事故污染对海洋生物的损害程度,并初步建立海洋生物毒理数据库。应用拉格朗日原理建立溢油污染生物暴露模型(OSBEM):采用拉格朗日“生物粒子”来表示浮游生物、海洋鱼类和底栖生物,通过追踪每个“生物粒子”在油污染环境中的行动方式,并记录其暴露时间和暴露浓度,结合生物急性毒性模型来推算其受损程度;根据海鸟、海洋哺乳动物等野生动物被一定厚度的油膜粘住后致死的概率,来估算其死亡损害程度。
4.提出应用COM组件技术开发溢油模型控件(OSMAC),实现海洋动力、溢油行为动态以及生物影响等数值模型的计算核心、数据管理及可视化功能的有机组成。通过基于组件的高效集成方案,综合应用地理信息系统技术、组件开发技术以及数值模拟技术,在面向对象集成开发平台Visual C++支持下,设计和开发基于GIS的溢油污染生物资源损害评估软件系统(OILASSESS),实现了GIS应用功能,以及海区潮流模拟、溢油行为动态模拟、溢油事故生物资源损害评估等专业应用功能。
5.应用本文提出的损害评估模式评估大连湾的“阳澄湖”轮和“阿提哥”轮两起溢油事故对海洋生物资源的共同损害影响,以及评估大连湾的“千岛油1”溢油事故对海洋生物资源的损害影响。两个评估案例的溢油污染范围模拟结果与实际调查、监测结果吻合较好。通过与海洋渔业部门的“专家评估方法”估算结果的比较分析,表明本文数值评估模式得到的生物资源损害程度评估结果更为客观合理。
由于我国目前仍缺乏能够有效应用于溢油污染事故生态损害索赔的定量化评估技术,本文的研究可为完善和提高我国海洋溢油事故生态损害评估技术方法提供理论参考和实践经验。
Quantitative assessment of the marine biological resource damages resulting from oil spill accidents, which also plays a prior role in the process of claiming maritime arbitrations and compensations, has taken involving efforts of the scientists of the field. Throughout the overview of marine oil spill compensation in China, and analysis the state-of-the-art of research and application of the marine ecology damage assessment techniques and methods, This paper, taking the establishment of a framework which assesses the biological resources damages resulting from marine oil spill using numerical modeling, focusing on the development and application of numerical assessment models and software system. The major contents and significant results have been achieved are as follow:
1. A computer assessment scheme for biological damages resulting from oil spill in marine environment was proposed. Based on the investigating or monitoring data and related information of the accident, the tidal current simulation module and the oil spill transport and fate model provide sufficiently accurate predictions, such as hydrodynamic environment and the spatiotemporal distribution of the spilled oil, to achieve the requirement of the biological exposure module and acute toxicity module. The latter two modules are used to simulate the response of different marine species under such an environment, as well as the acute toxicity effects of the spilled oil acting on them, and caluate quantitatively the marine biological damage.
2. A three-dimensional oil spill trajectory and fate model (OSTFM) was developed. The model can simulate instant or continual release from one spill site, and continuous release from moving spill site or mutitiple spill sites by using Langrange particle tracking method. The model can also simulate the transport and weathering processes of spilled oil such as evaporation, emulsification, dispersion, dissolution and so on, and the spatiotemporal distribution of spilled oil on the sea surface and in the water column.
3. An oil spill biological acute toxicity model (OSATM), which can predict the time-concentration-effect relationship between oil pollutant and marine organism, was developed based on the statistic and regression of the acute toxicity test data. To provide the basical data for numerical modeling and actual oil spill accident assessment, the oil toxicity database was also prelininary built based on two types of datasets, i.e. the toxicity data from the acute toxicity tests of different marine organisms carried out in our labrotary, and the toxicity data recorded in the literatures.
An oil spill biological exposure model (OSBEM) was subsequently developed. The marine orgranisms, including plantonic, marine fishes and benthos, are represented by a large number of Langrange particles respectively. The exposure time and concentration of each particle will be recorded during the simulation of tracking its movement in the polluted environment. The biomass losses of the marine organisms are calculated by the OSATM model. As for the marine wildlife (sea birds and marine mammals), the killed percentages are calculated based on the probability of being oiled by the surface oil slicks which exceeding a threshold thickness.
4. An oil spill model activex control (OSMAC), which integrates the numerical assessment models and data management and visualization, was developed with the COM component technique. On the basis of the OSMAC, the marine oil spill biological resource damage assessment system (OILASSESS) was designed and developed using Visual C++, GIS technology, component technique and numerical simulation technology. The model system not only has the basic GIS functions, but also the functions of tidal current simulation, oil spill transport and fate prediction, and biological resource damage assessment caused by oil spill accidents.
5. The OILASSESS model system was used to assess the biological resource damage assessment caused by oil spill accidents. In the two cases study, i.e. Yangchenghu spill accident and Arteage spill accident as the first case, and the Qiandaoyou1 spill accident as the second case, the surface oil slicks and subsurface oil concentrations simulation results are in good agreement with field investigation and observation data, the biological resource damage assessment results are proved more objective and reasonable than that of the expert evaluation method. The applications show that the model system is an effective tool for marine oil spill ecology damage assessment.
Lacking of effective quantitative assessment techniques for marine oil spill accidents ecology damage compensation inland, the research of this paper provides valuable theory references and experiences in perfecting and improving the assessment techniques for the marine ecological damage assessment.
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