摘要
生态系统的相对稳定是人类赖以生存与发展的必要条件,维护与保持生态
平衡,促进生态系统的良性循环和健康发展是关系到人类前途和命运。对于农
业系统进行生态恢复研究尤为重要,本文以奉节移民安置区为例,讨论分析了
如何建立农业生态恢复决策的系统分析模型及应用。
1、明确了农业生态恢复的含义。所谓农业生态恢复,就是把农业看作一个
生态、经济复合系统,以生态学、经济学和生态经济学原理为指导,根据农业
生态系统和经济系统之间相互联系、相互依存、相互制约、相互作用的矛盾运
动规律,采用综合化现代科学技术,对农业生态经济系统的组分、结构、布局
和配置进行优化调控,促进人、生物和自然环境、资源之间,生态系统和经济
系统之间关系的协调发展,以满足社会不断增长的对农副产品和生态环境的需
要的过程。其含义:(1)以追求生态、经济、社会三效益的协调统一为目标;(2)
以不断提高系统的生产率、稳定性、持续性为目的;(3)是通过人为调控来实现
的。
2、在确定农业生态恢复决策的系统分析建模边界内容时,首先弄清农业系
统与环境关系。从调控角度来看,农业系统是一个自然—人工复合系统;从特
性角度来看,农业系统具有社会的、经济的、环境的三大具体功能,以及存在、
运行和发展于自然环境,对环境依赖性和反作用大,表现出脆弱性。其次从农
业系统本身结构和外界环境问题两方面入手来界定建模边界内容。农业系统结
构应着重分析土地利用平面结构、种植业结构、系统立体结构、农户家庭经济
结构等四方面;外界环境问题主要考虑人类向农业系统补充物质或能量、信息
等有关问题。
3、为了确定系统递阶层结构各层构成因子,着重分析了奉节移民安置区农
业系统现状(存在的主要问题),通过分析发现:(1)安置区农业系统结构不尽
合理,①土地利用平面结构比例不协调;②种植业结构仍以粮食为主,经饲作
物比例过低;③稻田果园等系统立体结构缺乏多层次利用;④农户家庭经济结
构以粮猪果型为主,十分单一;⑤农业系统辅助能输入结构仍以无机肥为主,
有机肥等其它物质输入较少。(2)三峡工程对移民安置区农业系统不利影响加
重。(3)水土流失、人为污染、干旱等自然灾害等环境问题日益突出。
4、结合奉节移民安置区农业系统存在的主要问题,围绕农业生态恢复的
目的与目标、途径、方法与措施进行了农业生态恢复决策的系统递阶层结构构
成分析。并运用层次分析方法建立了决策的系统递阶层结构的层次分析模型。
模型包括A、B、C、D四个层次,A层为目的层,以提高三峡库区广义农民的
物质文化生活水平,改善生态环境,有利于三峡水库的修建与高效持续运行为
目的:B层为途径层,包括改善社会环境,发展广义农业,改善自然环境三个
因素;C、D层为方法、措施层,C层包括改善农村环境等10个因子,D层包
括发展二、三产业等38个因子(决策层)。通过构造两两判断矩阵及层次单排
序和总排序,来确定农业生态恢复的主要决策变量(总排序权重值较大的人由
于层次分析模型确立的决策变量,主要是宏观变量,不便于实施。本文便进行
了决策的优化调控,以粮仓产量、种植业和林业产值、土壤年侵蚀量、资金投
入量为目标,建立起多目标线性规划模型。考虑多目标线性规划模型评价比选
有效解较困难,特将原模型转化为模糊最优化模型,建立各个目标函数对理想
状态模糊集的隶属函数(满意程度),通过满意度来求解最优方案。
5、通过实地调查,采用德尔菲法(专家意见)结合专家确立了各层因子
的相对重要性,结合层次分析模型,得出奉节移民安置区生态恢复的十大决策
因子:①进行中低产田改造:②发展果、桑园;③建梯地梯田;④扩大林地;
⑤物质多层次多途径利用;③猪牛羊禽蛋结合:①以有机肥为主的肥料等物质
投入:③规模经营:③粮经饲绿结合;徊改善交通条件。通过调查收集的数据,
对前四个决策因子进行了优化调控,得出奉节移民安置区决策调控的高目标、
中高目标、中目标、低目标四种方案。其中以中高目标最佳。即坡改梯4630
公顷,中低产闭改造3840公顷,果园新增170公顷,柔园新增230公顷,造林
9724公顷。到2010年种植业和林业产值达24798.82万元,较1998年增长
54.03%,年均增长率为3.38%;粮食产量达到8.9895万吨,较19%年增长
48.83%,年均增长率为3.11%;上壤侵蚀量达92.933万吨,较1998年减少
30.38%。年均递减率为二.75%。森林覆盖率达25.90%,较 1998年增加 18石0%。
The relative stability of ecosystem is indispensable to the existence and development of human being. And how to stabilize it and promote the positive cycle and healthy development matters a lot for our future. So it is all the more important to carry out researches on the agroecological restoration. Taking Fengjie Migrant Resettlement Area as an example, this paper mainly discusses the esablishtnent of the systematic analysis model of agroecological restoration and its application.
I. Defining agroecological restoration. Agroecological restoration is a course to coordinate the development among human, creatures and natural envionment, resources; among ecosystem and economic system; And the following principles are included:Regarding agriculture as a ecological, economic compound system; on the basis of the relations of mutual connection mutual reliance, mutual restriction and interaction between agroecologieal system and economic system; By means of modern science and technology to optimize the combination, division, structure and layout in agroecological system. Its meaning includes: (l)Its target is to pursue the coordination among ecological effect, economic effect and social effect; (2)It purpose is to improve the productive rate. stability of the system; (3)It is realized by artificial control.
2.Determied to start with the agricultural system itself and the external envioment in defining the model range of the agroecological restoration system: Agricultural system should focus oii the analysis of land utilization flat structure, growing structure, system stereo-structure and farmers?household economic structure; On the other hand, the problem of external envionment mainly deal with the replenishment of material, energy and information to the agricultural system.
3. Laying great emphasis on the analysis of the current situation in Fengjie Migrant Resettlement Area, for the purpose of establishing the systematic analysis model of agroecological restoration strategy and fixing the model range. Following problems are discovered through the analysis: (l)unreasonable land utilization structure, growing structure. household economic structure. etc. (2)The Three Gorges Project has an even worse effect on its agricultural system. (3)such environmental problems as water and soil erosion, man-made polluction and drought become more obvious.
4. Carrying out a step-by-step analysis of the agroecological restoration system according to the present situation in Fengjie Migrant Resettlement Area and surrounding the purpose of agroecological restoration and its target, approachesarid measures. the graded analysis model is established by means of graded analysis method, which determines the decisive factors of agroecological restoration. The model includes A~ B~ C. D levels. Level
3
A is the level of purpose, and it aims at improving the material and culture life level of the broad sense peasants in the reservoir area of the Three Gorges, improving the ecological environment, and benefiting the construction of the Three Gorges reservoir and the highly efficient continual function. Level B is the level of target and it includes three elements:
improving social, environment, developing broad-sense agriculture and improving natural environment. Level C and D are the levels of approachesand measures. Level C includes 0 elements such as improving agricultural environment. Level D includes 38 elements (level of decision) such as the secondry industry and tertiary industry. By constructing matrix of being compared between two elements and the single arrangement and total arrangement of the levels, we decide the main decision variable of the agroe~ological restoration (the bigger one of the value of the total arrangement). Because the decision variable decided by the model of the level analysis, mainly the macroscopic variable, is not easy to be underwent, the passage undergoes the regulation and control of the decision. We take the output of the grain, the value of the planting and the forestry, the figure of th
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