摘要
世界经济一体化使贸易和投资的联系更加紧密。农业国际化作为世界经济一体化在农业领域内的直接体现,极大推动农业国际投资与贸易发展。在农业国际化浪潮下,中国农产品市场的开放程度不断提高,农产品的生产和贸易进一步融入到全球农业体系之中。作为农业对外开放最主要经济活动,中国农产品对外贸易与农业外商直接投资都表现非常活跃。入世以来,中国农产品贸易发展迅速,农产品进出口贸易呈现双增长态势,一跃成为世界第三大农产品进口国和第五大农产品出口国。与此同时,中国的农业也迎来了资本时代,农业总体引资规模得以持续增长,中国农业外资利用状况也发生了重大改变。外商投资企业的农产品贸易额逐年上升,致使中国农产品进出口经营主体格局发生改变,外商投资企业也成为农产品对外贸易主力军,中国农业外商直接投资与农产品贸易关系更为紧密。
随着外商直接投资的不断增长,大量学者开始关注外商直接投资与中国对外贸易的关系,基于宏观层面的外商直接投资与中国对外贸易之间相互关系研究不断增多。随着研究的深入,各产业领域内外商直接投资与贸易之间的相互关系也得到广泛的关注,农业领域内外商直接投资与农产品贸易关系也引起许多学者的关注。但由于行业差别、产业政策差异,各行业内贸易与投资的替代关系已不再是必然。当前,中国农业正处于转型时期,农产品贸易已进入新的发展阶段,农业及农产品贸易面临新形势和新挑战,以数量增长为特点的粗放型经济增长方式已不适应今后农业贸易发展的方向。农产品贸易战略的改变,使我们不仅要关注外商直接投资与农产品贸易在总量上之间的关系,更为迫切的需要研究外商直接投资对农产品贸易增长方式的影响。考察农业外资对农产品贸易质的影响以提高农业利用外资质量是论文研究的主要目标。
论文从外商直接投资对农产品贸易数量和结构影响的两个方向展开,结合外商直接投资与国际贸易关系的理论分析,通过建立农业外商直接投资与农产品贸易关系的计量模型,从实证角度分析农业外商直接投资对中国农产品贸易总量、农产品贸易结构、地区农产品贸易的影响。这些分析均属于事后研究的范畴。文章的内容共分一下七个部分。
第一部分,导论。主要阐述论文的国内外研究背景；对问题的缘起进行简要说明,对研究意义做出说明；介绍论文的主要研究方法和研究思路；介绍论文内容安排和框架结构,及主要研究目标和论文研究所需要完成的任务；具体说明了论文可能的创新之处和不足。第二部分,理论回顾和文献评述。对研究的内容涉及到农业、外商直接投资、农产品等相关概念进行界定；其次,从传统贸易理论、国际贸易新理论到跨国公司投资理论,对贸易和投资之间关系研究及模型进行详细介绍,对外商直接投资与国际贸易关系的理论发展及演进过程进行回顾和梳理,为实证研究分析奠定理论基础；第三,从不同视角对涉农食品产业外商直接投资贸易效应相关文献进行整理分析,并在研究方法上进行借鉴,作为论文研究的出发点和基础。
第三部分,对中国农业利用外商直接投资的发展变化与现状进行总体分析。阐述农业国际化的内涵及主要表现,并对发展中国家农业外资利用重要意义及中国外资引进与利用重要性加以阐述；作为研究背景,第三部分用了大量的图表和统计数据对中国农业利用外资主要发展阶段进行概括,并重点对农业利用外资的现状进行分析,了解农业外资的规模、主要来源地、农业外资主要利用方式,得出中国农业外商直接投资的主要特征和发展趋势,为以后的几章作好铺垫和准备。
第四、五、六部分是论文的核心。第四部分,主要分析中国农业外商直接投资与农产品贸易进出口总量之间的关系。首先对外商直接投资的贸易效应进行理论分析,阐述外商直接投资对贸易数量影响的机制,包括进口替代效应、出口创造、进口引致等贸易效应；其次,利用外资企业进出口比重、进出口贡献率等指标,评价外商投资企业的贸易绩效,对外商直接投资与农产品贸易关系进行经验分析。其三,在定性分析的基础上,通过建立计量模型,利用协整分析方法对外商直接投资与中国农产品贸易进口和出口的相关性进行实证检验,为前面的理论分析提供经验支持。第五部分,主要分析外商直接投资对中国农产品商品贸易结构影响,即外商直接投资对中国农产品贸易发展的影响。首先,介绍传统比较优势和动态比较优势理论下贸易结构决定的基础,农业外资、技术进步与贸易结构的关系,以此作为第五部分实证分析的理论基础；利用贸易结构指数,对农产品进出口贸易结构及变化进行经验分析,同时利用大量数据和关联系数对外商直接投资与农业产业结构也进行了经验分析；其三,采用计量经济方法对农业领域内外商直接投资与农产品出口贸易结构及农产品进口贸易结构关系进行协整分析,对农业外资促进中国农产品进出口贸易结构优化进行实证检验。第六部分,分地区探讨外商直接投资对中国农产品贸易影响。首先,以省区的数据,利用行业区位商,对农业外商投资区域分布进行分析,总结概括农业外商投资区位分布特征及变化；其次,对农产品贸易的地区差异进行分析,反映农产品对外贸易内在质的变化；最后,在区域实证研究中,采用面板数据模型,建立东部、中部和西部外商直接投资贸易效应的固定影响变截距模型,分别从进口和出口的角度进行实证分析。
第七部分是论文的主要结论及政策建议。通过论文所做的理论和实证分析,得出农业外资与中国农产品贸易关系的相关结论,做总结性述评,并为制定外资和农产品对外贸易政策提供事实依据。
论文基本结论包括：外商直接投资与中国农产品出口贸易之间是互补关系,即农业领域内外商直接投资增长有助于推动中国农产品出口贸易发展；外商直接投资与中国农产品进口之间是存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但与外商直接投资对中国农产品出口贸易影响相反,外商直接投资与农产品进口是负向关系,即两者之间是替代而非互补,短期内外商直接投资与农产品进口是互补关系；外商直接投资对农业产业结构优化存在积极影响,但一定程度上外商直接投资强化了农产品进出口贸易的集中度；从地区来看,外商直接投资与农产品贸易的关系在东、中、西部三大区域存在较大差异,外商直接投资对东部农产品贸易影响显著,在一定程度上造成中国东部沿海发达地区与中、西部地区贸易发展失衡。
The world economic integration further strengthens the inter contact between trade and investment. The agriculture internalization, as the direct reflection of the world economic integration in agriculture field. With the wave of agriculture internalization, the opening degree of the Chinese market is gradually increasing, and the production and trade of agriculture is further incorporated in the global agricultural system. As the most important economic activities of opening to outside world in the agriculture field, the performance of the foreign trade of agricultural products and the agricultural FDI of China is extremely vigorous. Since joining the WTO, agricultural product trade of China has been developing very quickly, and both of agricultural product import and export are increasing, that china has also become the third biggest country of agricultural product import and the fifth biggest country of agricultural product export. In the meantime, the agriclture of China also meets the capital age, the general attracted agricultural FDI is continuously growing, the increasing level of using agricultural FDI is gradually improving, so that the status of using agricultural FDI of china has greatly changed. The trend of agricultural product trade of foreign investment companies is increasing year by year, even agricultural trade of foreign investment companies has become the main resource of the increasing amount of agricultural product trade of China, there is more tight link between the agricultural FDI and agricultural trade.
With the gradually increasing of FDI, lots of scholars begin to focus on the relationship between FDI and foreign trade of China, the main field that they have been focusing on is the inter-relationship between FDI and foreign trade with the macro view. After that, with the further deepening of the study, the relations of FDI and foreign trade of different industries have also been focused, even the relationship of FDI and foreign trade in agriculture attracts some scholars'attention. But, because of different kinds of reasons such as industry difference and indutry policy defferetiation, the substituting relationship between trade and investment in different industry is not an absolutely necessity any more. Nowadays, the agriculture of China is in the transition period, agricultural trade is moving into a new development phase. Both the agriculture and agricultural product trade are facing the new situation and new challenge, the extensive economic growth pattern,which is characterized by quantity growth, is not going to be applied to the direction of the agricultural product trade development hereafter from now on. This change of agricultural trade strategy urges us not only to focus on the aggregated amount between FDI and agricultural product trade, but also to study how FDI influances agricultural trade growth pattern and how agricultural FDI influances agricultural product trade quality, in the end to improve the international competitiveness of agricultural product trade of China.
The study in this dissertation is made from 2 directions, which are the quantity and structure of FDI influancing agricultural trade. This dissertation integrates the theoretical analysis of FDI and international trade, from empirical angle, analyzes how FDI influences the general amount of agricultural product trade, agricultural product trade structure and the regional agricultural trade through establishing the econometric model between agricultural FDI and agricultural trade, the above analysis belong to the post category.
This dissertation studies FDI's influances on the agricultural product trade of China from 3 angles:the general agricultural product trade, trade commodity structure and regional structure. This dissertation consists of seven chapters. The first chapters is introduction, which mainly explains the national and international study background of this dissertation, briefly explains the original questions and the meaning of doing this study, introduces the study methodology and study approach, the content arrangement and structure, and the study target and the mission of this study, and specifically states the probable innovation and the weakness. The second Chapter is theory review and documents commentary, giving the definition of agriculture, FDI, agricultural product trade etc. involved by this study, further more, introduces the relation and model between trade and investment, review and clarify the theory development and evolution process of the relation between FDI and international trade, from the angles such as traditional trade theory, new international trade theory and transnational corporation investment theory, the above is the basis for the empirical study and analysis; then from different angles, the related documents of the trade effectiveness of the FDI of the agri-food industry are compiled and analyzed, borrowing the study approach as the start point and basis of this dissertation study.
The third Chapter is the general analysis on the development and change of using FDI in agriculture field and current status in China, illustrates the connotation and main performance of agriculture internalization, and futher more explain the important meaning of using agricultural FDI in the developing courntries and the importance of absorbing and using FDI in China; as the study background, there are lots of charts and statistics data which used to summarize the important development phase of using agricultural FDI in China, the current status of using agricultural FDI is also analyzed specifically in this chapter, the scale of agricultural FDI, the main source places, and the pattern of using agricultural FDI are also introduced, the main characteristics and the development trend of the agricultural FDI of China are the conclusion of this chapter, which is used as the basis and preparation of the following chapters.
The forth,fifth and sixth Chapters are the core of this dissertation. In the forth chapter, the relation between agricultural FDI and the general import and export amount of agricultural product trade is analyzed. Firstly theoretically analyzes the trade effectiveness of FDI, then explain the mechanism of the influances of FDI on trade quantity, including import substitution, export creation, and import cause; secondly, evaluates the trade performance of foreign invested companies and empirically analyzes the relationship of FDI and agricultural product trade through using the indicators such as import and export ratio, import and export contribution ratio of foreign invested companies; thirdly, based on the qualitative analysis, empirically inspect the inter relationship between import and export of agricultural product trade through establishing econometric model and using co-integration analysis to provide empirical support for the above theoretical analysis.
In the fifth Chapter, the influances of agricultural FDI on agricultural commodity trade structure are mainly analyzed, that is the influances of FDI on agricultural product trade structure. Firstly, introduces the basis of trade stucture determined in the situation of the traditional comparative advantage and the dynamic coparative advantage, and the relation among agricultural FDI, technology progress and trade structure, which is the theoretical basis of the fifth chapter; the empirical analysis is applied to the trade structure and change of agricultural product trade through using the trade structure index, in the mean time, the empirical analysis is also applied to the industry structure of agricultural FDI with the use of amount of data and the incidence coefficient; thirdly, the co-integration analysis is also applied to analyze the relationship between the agricultural FDI and agricultural export structure and agricultural import structure, and empirically test the agricultural FDI promoting the import and export structure of Chinese agricultural products with the taking of econometric method. In the sixth Chapter, the influences of FDI on Chiese agricultural product trade are discussed according to different regions. Firstly, analyzes the regional distribution of agricultural FDI, and summerizes the regional distribution characteristics and change of agricultural FDI with the use of provincial data and the industrial location quotient; secondly, analyzes the regional differentiation of agricultural product trade and reflects the interior qualitive change of the foreign trade of agricultural products; lastly, during the process of regional empirical test study, the empirical analysis is seperately applied to the import and export angles with the taking of panel data model and the establishing the Fixed effect Variable intercept model of the FDI's regional trade effectiveness among the east, the middle and the west region of China.
The seventh Chapter is the main conclusion and policy suggestion of this dissertation. The relative conclusion is made after what have been done in the theoretical and empirical analysis of this dissertation, the summerization comments are made and which provides the actual evidence for the policy making of agricultural FDI and agricultural product trade.
The basic conclusion of this dissertation is as following, the relationship exists between FDI and the export of Chinese agricultural products is mutually complementary, that is the increasing of FDI in the agriculture field benefits to promote the development of the export development of Chinese agricultural products. The long time period and stable equilibrium relationship exsits between FDI and the Chinese agricultural product import, but the influences of FDI on Chinese agricultural product export is on the contrary, and the relationship between them is negative, that is the relationship between them is not complementary but substitutable; FDI has a positive influances on the optimization of agriculture industry structure, but to some extent, FDI strengthens the concentration degree of agricultural product import and export; regionally speaking, in the East, Middle and West parts of China, the relationship between FDI and agricultural product trade is not completely complementary. FDI is also the main reason which causes the imbalance of trade development among the East coastal developed area, the Middle area and the Western area of China.
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