摘要
中国是食用油籽的生产、消费和贸易大国,主要食用油籽的产量、消费量和贸易量均居世界前列。20世纪90年代以来,由于国内需求的旺盛,食用油籽的进口量大幅度增长,在放开对进口油料的贸易管制之后,大豆、油菜籽的进口量增长迅速。特别是大豆,在较低的关税壁垒下,目前进口量占世界总进口的40%以上,是国内产量的3-4倍,成为中国最大的农产品贸易逆差项。中国是世界上大豆、油菜籽的主产国,大豆、油菜籽的大量进口不可避免地对油料作物的生产和国内消费生产形成冲击;另一方面,在国内需求持续增加的情况下,中国具有传统优势的出口油籽,如花生、葵花籽的出口量呈徘徊下降的趋势。研究中国食用油籽进出口的影响因素,特别是影响贸易量的宏观经济因素,对于准确把握贸易量的发展趋势,降低贸易成本,促进农民增收,改善社会福利具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文在对中国及世界主要油籽的生产、消费和贸易作描述性统计分析的基础上,选择中国贸易量最大的四种主要食用油籽作为研究对象,并基于产品层面,运用贸易引力模型对中国以进口为主的大豆、油菜籽和以出口为主的花生、葵花籽进行了实证研究。研究以1994-2009年间中国与主要贸易伙伴国之间的贸易数据为依据,分别采用面板数据模型对大豆的进口和花生的出口,采用截面数据模型对油菜籽的进口和葵花籽的出口进行了实证分析。实证的结果表明,大豆和油菜籽的进口量主要受中国国内供求因素的影响,虽然进口量很大,但目前市场需求仍未达到饱和,进口量还有上升的空间;花生的出口量主要受国内市场供需因素的制约,表现为当大豆、油菜籽进口量上升时,花生出口下降,花生的出口潜力不大,出口量呈下降趋势;葵花籽受国内市场供需的影响不大,其出口量主要受进口国潜在进口需求因素的影响,中国对主要市场的葵花籽出口量呈上升趋势。
本文所作的引力模型实证研究,并未采用农产品贸易的总量数据,而是基于产品层面,以具体油籽品种的贸易量为实证对象,并以重量为计量单位,真实地反映了宏观供需因素对实际贸易量的影响;本文在不同的数据结构下对不同品种油籽的进口量或出口量进行计量分析,分别使用了面板数据和横截面数据,并结合模型检验结果对影响大豆、油菜籽、花生、葵花籽贸易量的因素进行了比较和分析。
China is one of the major producer, consumer and trader of edible oilseed in the world, with the largest production, and the largest consumption and trade volume. Since the 1990s, oilseed volume imported in China increased dramatically due to strong demand in domestic market. After releasing trade control in oilseed market, imported volume of soybean and rapeseed in China jumped rapidly, especially for soybean, with the lower tariff barrier, China imported 40% of the world total, which is 3 to 4 fold of domestic production, and made soybean the largest deficit account in China’s agricultural trade. China is the largest producer of soybean and rapeseed, high volume of imported soybean and rapeseed, on the one hand, has shocked the oil-crop production and domestic consumption inevitably. And on the other hand, with the sustained booming of domestic demand, peanut and sunflowerseed, which are with traditional competitive edge, export decline in volume in a long trend. Studying on the influent factors in oilseed trade, especially the macroeconomic factors, is important and made a theoretic and realistic sense for estimating trade developing trend, increasing farmers’income, and improving social welfare.
By descriptive statistics for oilseed production, consumption and trade in China and in the world, this paper select 4 kinds of oilseed as study samples, and on the product level, using trade gravity model to make an empirical study for imported soybean and rapeseed, and exported peanut and sunflowerseed. Based on the bilateral trade statistics datum between China and trade partner countries in the period of 1994-2009, empirical study use panel datum for soybean’s import and peanut’s export, and cross-section datum for rapeseed’s import and sunflowerseed export respectively. The result show that the import volume of soybean and rapeseed are mainly influenced by supply-and-demand factors in domestic market, with high volume, however, the demand is not saturated yet; there is a large margin for import volume increase. Peanut trade volume is limited by domestic market factors, export volume decrease with soybean and rapeseed import increase, export potential is not high, export decrease in a long run. Sunflowerseed export is influenced by supply-and-demand factors of destination countries, and with low response to domestic market factors, China sunflowerseed export volume is on the rise.
Empirical study on gravity model in this paper is based on the product level rather than on the agriculture section level. Taking the specific oilseeds as study object and using trade volume rather than trade value as dependent variable make the empirical study more realistic. This paper under different data structure make econometric analyses by using panel data and cross-section data, and make comparison of test result for soybean, rapeseed, peanut and sunflowerseed.
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