摘要
自凯恩斯在《就业、利息和货币通论》提出流动性偏好的概念以来，流动性的概念便引起了经济学家的广泛关注。进入新世纪以来，流动性过剩问题逐渐在我国显现，研究表明，我国未来将长期面临流动性过剩的不利影响。本文在充分吸收和借鉴国内外相关领域研究成果的基础之上，对金融抑制下流动性过剩形成机制以及流动性过剩对于通货膨胀的影响进行了深入的研究，研究的主要内容和创新如下：
1.从宏观角度研究流动性过剩，流动性过剩的内涵在于货币需求与货币供给的失衡。对于流动性过剩的度量，学术界始终没有形成统一意见。针对我国当前的发展阶段，货币供应量和信贷总量等数量指标是针对我国比较合理的度量，利率、汇率和资产价格等价格指标则比较适用于发达国家。通过“货币供应量/GDP”等不同类型的指标对我国流动性过剩情况进行测算，结果都显示我国的流动性过剩情况在不断的恶化。结合本文的研究方法，选取马歇尔K值“M2/GDP”和“信贷总量/GDP”作为流动性过剩的度量指标。
2.我国经济改革的特点是在经济权力下放的同时保持着国有企业的垄断地位，经济权力的下放使我国的市场化改革取得巨大成就，同时为了保持国有企业垄断地位政府不得不采取金融抑制的政策，对市场的扭曲具体表现为企业效率与资源分配的错位，这种非市场化的失衡实际上是造成我国经济发展中诸多问题的根源。对于流动性过剩形成机制的研究也应该从金融抑制的角度出发，本文从理论上阐述金融抑制下我国流动性过剩的形成机制，并构建了数理模型，从国有企业对非国有企业的信贷歧视出发，深入分析我国流动性过剩的形成机制。这是本文的创新之一。模型推导结果显示，国有企业贷款比例的提高确实会恶化流动性过剩，进一步，通过分析金融抑制下国有企业效率追赶对流动性过剩的影响，本文指出企业资金使用效率的提高可以缓解流动性过剩。因此，我国流动性过剩的形成机制，即长期的金融抑制政策使国有企业形成对非国有企业的所有制歧视，由此导致企业效率与资源分配的错位，从而在微观层面使企业资金使用效率不高，因此政府只能通过实行扩张性政策刺激经济，流动性过剩的情况也不断恶化。
3.对上述模型进行实证检验。首先用面板数据分析方法从省级的角度进行实证，由于没有国有企业贷款比例数据，结合文献中通用的方法提出改进意见对其进行估算，实证结果显示出国有企业贷款比例通过信贷扩张对流动性过剩指标变化率有一个显著的正向影响，进一步，国有企业贷款比例单独对流动性过剩指标变化率亦具有显著的正向影响，验证了数理模型的推导结果。此外，信贷增长率对流动性过剩指标变化率具有显著的正向影响，说明信贷增长会恶化流动性过剩的情况，由此说明了我国企业资金使用效率不高的情况。面板数据的结果验证了数理模型的有效性。其次用时间序列分析方法从全国的角度进行实证，由于没有国有企业贷款比例数据，结合面板数据的分析确定替代变量，时间序列的实证结果与面板数据一致。
4.本文从“中国之谜”现象出发研究流动性过剩对于通货膨胀影响，“中国之谜”是指我国长期存在的流动性过剩与通货膨胀的背离现象。通过对“中国之谜”现象的检验，发现不同的通货膨胀度量指标会得到不同的结论，据此提出用CPI度量通货膨胀是“中国之谜”现象产生的直接原因。针对流动性过剩与通货膨胀之间的关系，构建数理模型进行分析，分析结果表明，“中国之谜”现象产生的根本原因在于非民生部门对民生部门的货币分流作用，因此我国流动性过剩与CPI的背离是因为经济中非民生部门的发展。这也是本文的创新之处。进一步，考虑到CPI不包含房价，以房地产市场作为非民生部门实证流动性过剩对于CPI的影响，实证结果显示加入房地产市场影响后，流动性过剩对CPI的解释能力得到加强，而且房地产影响变量与CPI具有显著的负向关系，验证了房地产市场的货币分流作用。
5.如何协调“保增长、控通胀”是我国未来经济发展必须面对的难题，针对此，本文提出了一个创新观点：即从不同角度在理论上证明了利率市场化和土地要素市场化是解决“保增长、控通胀”的有效手段，并提出以下政策建议：继续推进利率市场化改革，对资金要素进行有效的配置，通过提高企业资金使用效率缓解流动性过剩；继续推进土地要素市场化改革，通过土地要素市场化形成新的经济增长点和吸纳货币的“池子”缓解流动性过剩；贯彻落实“国务院新36条”，进一步放宽对非国有企业行业准入限制，扩宽非国有企业的投资渠道，确保市场化改革的效果。
The concept of liquidity has aroused widespread concern since “The General Theory ofEmployment, Interest and Money”.Since the beginning of the new century, the problem of excessliquidity gradually appeared in our country and China will face the adverse effects of excessliquidity. In this paper, we study excess liquidity formation mechanism under financial repressionand the effects of excess liquidity on inflation based on existing research, the main research andinnovation are as follows:
1. From a macro perspective, excess liquidity means the imbalance between the moneydemand and the money supply. The academic community has not formed a unified opinion aboutmeasure of excess liquidity. Quantitative indicators such as money supply and credit aggregatesare more reasonable measures for now. Price indicators such as interest rates, exchange rates andasset prices are more applicable to developed countries. China's excess liquidity undergoesdeterioration through different manners. In this paper, we select the Marshall K value “M2/GDP”and “total amount of credit/GDP” as excess liquidity metrics.
2. The characteristics of China's economic reform is the economic power decentralizationwhile maintaining the monopoly of state-owned enterprises. China's market-oriented reform hasmade great achievements because decentralization of economic power, meanwhile, in order tomaintain the monopoly of state-owned enterprises the government had to take the policy offinancial repression. Market distortion means the dislocation of business efficiency and resourceallocation, so the non-market imbalance is actually the root cause of many problems in China'seconomic development. Excess liquidity formation mechanism study should also be from thepoint of view of financial repression, thus this paper theoretically elaborated the formationmechanism of China's excess liquidity under financial repression, and build a mathematical model.This paper analyzes the formation mechanism of the excess liquidity in China from creditdiscrimination. This is one of the innovations of this article. Mathematical model deductionresults show that higher proportion of state-owned enterprises loans does worsen excess liquidityand more efficient use of enterprise funds can ease excess liquidity. The ownership discriminationfrom state-owned enterprises against non-state-owned enterprises under long-term financialrepression policy lead to dislocation of business efficiency and resource allocation, which resultsin low efficiency of enterprise funds at the micro level, so the government can stimulate theeconomy only through the implementation of expansionary policies and then excess liquiditysituation is deteriorating.
3. We empirically test the model above. First, we test with panel data analysis methods froma provincial perspective empirical, we suggest improvements to estimate the proportion ofstate-owned enterprises loans data, and the empirical results show that the proportion of loans ofstate-owned enterprises has a significant positive impact on the rate of change of excess liquidityindicators through credit expansion. Also, the proportion of state-owned enterprises loans has adirect significant positive impact on the rate of change of the excess liquidity indicators, whichverifies the results of the mathematical derivation. In addition, credit growth has a significantpositive impact of excess liquidity indicators of the rate of change and credit growth will worsenthe situation of excess liquidity, which shows that the efficiency of enterprise funds use efficiencyin China is not high. The panel data results verify the validity of the mathematical mode. Then weempirically test with time series analysis method from the point of view of the national.Combined with panel data analysis we determine the substitution variables because of the absenceof state-owned enterprises the proportion of loans. The empirical results of the time series are thesame with the panel data analysis.
4. We study the effects of excess liquidity on the inflation through the phenomenon of the“Chinese Mystery” which means the divergence between excess liquidity and inflation divergencein China. Through inspection of the “Chinese Mystery” phenomenon, we found that differentinflation metrics will make different conclusions and pursuant to which the CPI measure ofinflation is the direct cause of the phenomenon of “Chinese Mystery”. We build a mathematicalmodel to analyze the relationship between excess liquidity and inflation, and the analysis resultsshow that the root causes of the “Chinese Mystery” is that the money diversion effect ofnon-people's livelihood sector on the people's livelihood sector. We found that the development ofnon-livelihood sector makes the divergence between excess liquidity and CPI. This is anotherinnovation of this paper. Taking into account the CPI does not contain real estate price, weempirically test the effect of excess liquidity on CPI. The empirical results show that real estatevariables strengthen the explanatory power of excess liquidity to CPI and real estate variables andCPI have significant negative relationship which verifies the currency diversion effect of the realestate market.
5. In the future, China must face how to coordinate “growth and inflation”. For this, thispaper presents an innovative point of view. We proved that the liberalization of interest rate andland is the solution to coordinate "growth and inflation" from different perspectives theoretically.And then we advanced the following policy recommendations: continue to promote theliberalization reform of interest rate, allocate the capital elements efficiently, and relieve liquidityexcess by improving the enterprise funds use efficiency; continue to promote the liberalizationreforms of land, and relieve liquidity excess by forming a new growth point and a “currency pool”through land liberalization; implement the “State36”, further widen the entry restrictions and theinvestment channels of non-state-owned enterprises, and ensure the effect of market-orientedreforms.
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