摘要
长期以来,我国资源型货物的产地和消耗地存在地域空间的分割,使得大宗货物的运输成为铁路货物运输的重要组成部分,经济全球化的产业分工又使铁路货物运输面临新的问题。自20世纪80年代以后,我国铁路为解决日趋紧张的运量与运能的矛盾,已把发展重载运输作为加速提高输送能力的一个重要手段。目前我国铁路重载运输技术与组织已取得了一系列成果,为了进一步推动和深化发展重载运输,须系统深入地研究和总结铁路重载运输发展的对策及组织技术,以便降低运输成本、提高运输效率和服务质量,增强铁路竞争力,促进铁路运输的发展,为适应可持续发展的综合运输体系建设提供良好的基础。
本论文在铁道部重点项目《重载能力技术研究——大秦线货运组织运力配置辅助决策技术研究》的资助下,通过大量现场调研和数据分析,运用经济学、管理学、运输组织等的理论与方法探索了我国铁路重载运输的发展动因、发展过程中的相关决策问题和相关运输组织问题,以期为我国发展铁路重载运输提供理论依据和方法论,重点为解决铁路重载运输组织问题提供方法和策略。主要研究工作和结论如下：
(1)构建了铁路货运量预测系统动力学模型,并对截止到2017年的铁路货物发送量、周转量等进行了预测分析,模型的最大误差仅为0.7%。预测结果为截止到2017年的铁路货物发送量、周转量年均增长率分别为6.8%、7.9%,铁路运量的品类结构不会发生明显变化,煤等大宗货物仍是主要品类。
(2)从宏观环境、社会福利效应、主要内因三个方面探究重载运输的发展动因。认为宏观环境决定了铁路必须发展重载运输,铁路发展重载运输是一种帕累托改进,铁路发展重载运输的主要内因是当前铁路货物运输供需特征的内在要求与铁路运输发挥自身比较优势的必然结果。
(3)研究了铁路重载运输列车开行决策和运价决策问题。基于经济学理论构建了铁路重载运输规模经济度量模型,认为铁路重载列车开行条件由重载列车和普通列车的规模经济度决定；构建了基于随机货流条件下铁路货物重载列车最优比重模型,得出随机货流条件下重载列车最优比重增加或减少的幅度取决于重载列车和普通列车开行的收益率差和铁路对收益与风险的敏感值；建立了基于Pareto的铁路重载与公路货运最优比价模型,得出我国铁路重载与公路货运最优比价主要由消费者的偏好决定的。
(4)提出了铁路重载运输货流和车流组织策略。主要包括铁路重载运输组织思路、集疏运一体化组织的动因、面向重载运输的货运集中化运作策略、基于SERVQUAL的铁路货物运输服务质量评价方法。认为铁路重载运输组织思路应采用市场化导向、引入电子商务技术、实现集疏运一体化组织、有利于提高运输服务质量。铁路重载运输实施集疏运一体化是铁路重载运输集疏运一体化系统协同的结果。面向重载运输的铁路货运集中化应：以信息技术为主要手段,实现“集中受理,优化装车”；以站点优化为基础；以业务流程重组为条件；以改进集疏运系统为配套措施；以提高企业产品价值为目的。面向重载运输的铁路货运集中化可采用分枢纽及区段、区域、铁路货运企业集中化三阶段运作策略。铁路货物重载运输车流组织应适时根据市场车流特征及需要,组织灵活多样的符合市场需求的列车形式。基于SERVQUAL的铁路货物运输服务质量评价方法评价结果可靠。
(5)基于元胞自动机建立了铁路重载列车运行组织模拟模型,并对某区间铁路重载运输列车的有关特性和不同列车比例、平均速度、密度之间的关系进行模拟,模拟结果表明模型可靠,为当前铁路重载运输组织决策提供了科学依据。
(6)在上述研究的基础上,分析了大秦铁路年运量4亿t重载运输货流和车流组织策略。认为大秦铁路4亿t运输组织采用集疏运一体化的组织,货流、车流组织策略为大力深化货运集中化,建立战略装车点,科学规划货流来源等策略；采用多种形式的货流与车流组织,整列回空组织,合理运用机车车辆。
For a long time, China's geographical division between resource-based region and consumption region makes mass freight transport as an important part of railway freight transport and industrial division of labor resulting from economic globalization brings new challenges to railway freight transport. Since the 1980's, in order to tackle the gradually severe contradiction between traffic and transport capacity, China's railway has emphasized the development of railway heavy haul transport as an important mean to accelerate the improvement of railway capacity. At present, China has made a series of achievements in railway heavy haul transport technology and organization. In order to further promote and deepen the development of heavy haul transport, we should study and summarize the strategies and organization technology in depth so that we can reduce transport costs, improve transport efficiency and service quality, enhance the competitiveness of railways, promote the development of rail transport and therefore help railway heavy haul transport lay a good foundation to meet the sustainable development of the integrated transport system.
With the funding of the project "heavy-haul capacity technology research- the research on the auxiliary support technology for freight organization on Daqin railway", and through mass field researches and data analysis, in this article, we use the theories and methods of Economics, Management, Transport Organization to study the motivation of China's railway heavy-haul transport, the related policy issues and organizational issues during its development, with the expectation to explore the theory and method for heavy haul transport development, especially those method or strategies to solve organizational problems of railway heavy haul transport. And the main research work and conclusions are as followings:
(1) Constructed the dynamic model of railway freight transport development which predicted and analyzed the trend of railway freight quantity and freight turnover. And the maximum deviation is 0.699253%. Between 2007 and 2017 the annual average growth rate of freight quantity and freight turnover are 6.8% and 7.9% respectively. The category structure of the railway traffic will not be changed significantly and coal, metal ores, steel and nonferrous metals, petroleum, food, non-metallic ores still take a main role in the future.
(2) Explored the development motivation from three reasons, namely, the Macro-environment of railway heavy haul transport, social welfare effects of railway heavy haul transport, the internal reason of the development. We draw a conclusion:The macro-environment decided the necessity of railway heavy haul development; the development of heavy rail transport is a Pareto improvement; railway heavy haul transport is the inevitable result of the internal requirement of characteristics the current supply and demand of the railway freight and the development of the advantages of railway transport which is regarded as the internal reason for railway heavy haul transport.
(3) Studied the decision-making of the operation of railway heavy haul transport trains and prices. Based on economic theory, we built a railway heavy haul economies of scale measurement model and thought that the operational condition of railway heavy haul trains were decided by economies of scale of railway heavy haul transport and general transport; built the optional percentage of heavy haul trains model of randomized cargo flow conditions and concluded that with randomized cargo flow the optional heavy haul train percentage is dependent on the earning rate difference between heavy haul trains and general trains and railway's sensitivity to cost and risk; Studied the decision-making of the operation of railway heavy haul transport trains and prices. Based on economic theory, we built a railway heavy haul economies of scale measurement model and researched the operational condition of railway heavy haul transport based on economies of scale; researched the optional percentage of heavy haul trains of randomized cargo flow conditions and then obtained the rate of general trains and heavy haul trains under the minimum risk state and maximum risk state respectively; and established model of the optional price ratio of railway and road based on Pareto and concluded that China's the optional price ratio is decided by customers preference.
(4) Studied the organization strategy for cargo flow and wagon flow of heavy haul transport, mainly including the organization idea of railway heavy haul transport, the motivation of integrated organization of collecting and distributing; the operational strategy needed to meet the centralization of freight transport; and the service quality evaluation methods of railway freight transport based on SERVQUAL. We concluded that the heavy rail transport organization should adopt the market-oriented ideas, introduce e-commerce technology to achieve integrated organization which would benefit transport service quality. The implementation of integrate organization of collecting and distributing was the result of its system coordination. Railway freight centralization operation for heavy haul transport included:information technology as the main means to achieve the "centralized receiving and optimize loading", the basis of site optimization, prerequisite of business process reconstruction, improving the integrated system as supporting local acts measures and enhancing the value of enterprise products as the goal. The centralization of rail freight transport for heavy haul transport can adopt the division of terminal, section and region which means the centralization of rail freight companies can be achieved by adopting three-phase operational strategies. The wagon flow organization of railway heavy haul transport should organize various train formation meeting the market demand according to the wagon flow's characteristics and market demand. Therefore service quality evaluation methods of railway freight transport based on SERVQUAL is credible and reliable.
(5) Established cellular automaton model of railway heavy haul transport and simulated the relationship of different train proportion, average speed and density of some interval's heavy haul trains. The results indicated that the model was reliable and could provide justification for current railway heavy haul transport organization.
(6) Based on the above research, we analyzed the goods flow and wagon flow organization strategy for Daqin railway with annual 400 million tons and thought that Daqin railway should adopt the integrated organization of collecting and distributing, deepen the freight centralization with strategies for goods flow and wagon flow, construct strategic loading point, scientifically plan freight resource flow, adopt various organization of wagon flow and goods flow, adjust the organization of empty trains and rationally use rolling stock.
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