摘要
20世纪80年代开始的以最低资本要求为基础的微观审慎监管,曾经是金融业监管的主要手段,并且被世界各国所接受。但是金融危机却没有彻底消失,而是愈演愈烈。这使得人们开始怀疑微观审慎是否真正能够预防和抵御金融风险,因为以外部监管和直接监管为主的微观监管方式缺乏真实的信息和有效的工具,不能抵御蛰伏在系统内部的系统性金融风险。次贷危机以后,世界金融监管格局正在经历前所未有的变化,并且涉及理论、实践和政策等各个方面,宏观审慎开始得到人们的重视,我国也将构建“逆周期宏观审慎制度框架”纳入“十二五”规划建议。如何在更广阔的宏观视角下建立金融监管体系已经成为当前学术界、经济金融界共同关注的焦点。因此,构建合理的宏观审慎监管框架,对防范和化解金融风险的冲击具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
风险的基本含义是未来结果的不确定性。从引发金融风险的内在原因以及规避方式的角度,我们可以将风险划分为系统性金融风险和非系统性金融风险。微观审慎监管的逻辑是应对非系统性金融风险,但是由于合成谬误的存在,单个金融机构的最优策略和理性行为并不一定能够产生最佳的社会共同结果,甚至可能会推动经济走向极端。相比之下,以系统性金融风险为监管视野核心的宏观审慎,可以有效的应对具有传染性和风险溢出性的系统性金融风险。一般认为宏观审慎监管有两个“维度”：一是跨机构维度,旨在关注特定时间点的跨行业风险；二是时间维度,旨在分析风险的未来走势。宏观审慎从整体金融体系入手,考虑市场参与者之间的相互关联,关注系统性金融风险的积聚程度和实体经济与虚拟经济之间的传导。宏观审慎和微观审慎既有区别也有联系,单独采取任何一种监管方式都难以确保整个金融体系的稳定,只有有效的将二者结合起来,才能实现真正高效率的监管。2009年以来,美国、欧盟等西方各国在金融危机爆发后所进行的金融监管变革都取得了阶段性的突破,开始给予宏观审慎足够的重视,并且成功构建了宏观审慎监管的框架。这给予我国很大启示,包括加快研究进程,及时开展相关工作；宏观审慎监管框架的构建必须结合实际；加强协调、明确职责,防止政策目标与监管脱节。
系统性金融风险的生成机理和度量一直是学术界讨论的热点与难点。虽然现实中不可能存在一个完整的指标体系能够准确预警甚至是衡量系统性金融风险,但是这并不妨碍我们借助必要的技术手段度量中国系统性金融风险。不过国外很多先进模型在中国都无法应用,只有因子分析法比较适合。因子分析所构建的指标体系包括宏观经济环境、金融体系稳定性、政府债务风险、外资和汇率冲击风险以及金融机构管理质量。从实证结果可以看出,除2003年和2004年我国系统性金融风险并未充分暴露外,其他年份系统性金融风险状况均不容乐观。特别是从05年开始,风险呈现逐渐加大趋势,并在09年时达到最高点。总之,金融形势十分严峻,虽然说该状况在一定程度上是受国际金融危机的影响,但是实施宏观审慎监管仍然刻不容缓。通过分析因子得分的系数,可以发现改善宏观经济环境、金融体系稳定性和外资、汇率冲击风险,比改善政府债务风险和金融机构管理质量更能有效地降低系统性金融风险,这也正是宏观审慎监管的关键所在。
由于我国有过一段长期的计划经济,市场经济的发展并不成熟,而且鉴于我国社会主义初级阶段的特殊国情,金融市场的发展并不充分,我国的金融整体监管以国家行政控制为主,监管理念滞后。我们需要从根本理念上做出改变,这样才能更有效地应对系统性金融风险,具体包括：确立关注整体风险而非“分割”监管的理念；着重优化系统性金融风险的外部性；基于风险管理而不是基于固定的规则框架；金融机构的监测数据不等同于系统性金融风险水平。当前实施宏观审慎在市场参与者、市场监管者、市场制度和宏观审慎本身的复杂性上仍然面临很多问题。宏观审慎监管的重点包括合理的宏观调控、金融体制改革和结合我国特殊国情。在监管框架的构建上,国务院可以设立宏观审慎监管委员会,其地位为国务院直属正部级特设机构,履行相应的职责。完善宏观审慎监管框架的具体任务安排主要包括：开发有效的宏观审慎监管工具；加强金融基础设施,建立和完善系统性金融风险预警机制；进一步完善发展中国资本市场,防止资产泡沫膨胀；扩大监管范围,强化对系统重要性金融机构和金融创新的监管；加强政策配合和部门协调,寻求金融稳定；加强国际交流和国际间合作。
The minimum capital requirement for micro-prudential supervision since1980s was once the dominant view of the financial sector regulators, accepted by the countries. Instead of completely disappearing, financial crisis is growing, which makes people feel puzzled about the ability to finance micro-prudential supervision to prevent and resist financial risks. Lacking of real information and effective tools, the micro-regulatory approach based on external regulation and the direct supervision can not resist the systemic financial risks dormant within the system. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the world's financial regulatory structure is undergoing unprecedented changes, which involved all aspects of the theory, practice, policy and etc. Macro-prudential comes to be the focus of public; China will also put building "counter-cyclical macro-prudential institutional framework" into the "12th Five-Year Plan" recommendations. How to construct the financial regulatory system in a broader macroeconomic perspective has become the spotlight of academia and economy and financial sector. Therefore, constructing a reasonable macro-prudential framework has great theoretical and practical significance to guard-and defuse the impact of financial risks.
The basic meaning of risk is the uncertainty of future results. From the point of view of the root causes that lead to financial risks and risk-averse, risk can be divided into systemic financial risks and non-systemic financial risk. The logic of micro-prudential supervision is dealing with systemic financial risk. But due to the presence of the fallacy of composition, the optimal strategy and the rational behavior of individual financial institutions are not necessarily able to produce the best social results, and even may promote economic to e extreme. In contrast, the macro-prudential regulatory which treat systemic financial risk as the perspective core, can effectively response to infectious and overflow of the systemic financial risk. Generally speaking, Macro-prudential supervision has two "dimensions":First, the inter-agency dimension, which aims to address the cross-sector risk at specific time point; Second, the time dimension, which aims to analyze the risk of future trend. Macro-prudential start from the whole financial system, consider the linkages between market and market participants, concerned about the accumulation level of systemic financial risk and the conduction between the real economy and virtual economy. Differences and relations exist in macro-prudential and micro-prudential. Taking any kind of regulation respectively alone is difficult to ensure the stability of the entire financial system, only effectively combining both can the truly high efficient regulation is realized. Since2009, the U.S., EU and other Western countries all have made the breakthrough stage of financial regulatory revolutions after the financial crisis, they start giving the macro-prudent enough attention, and have successfully constructed the framework of the macro-prudential supervision. This gives our country a great revelation, included speeding up the research process in a timely manner to carry out related work; combing with the actual situation in macro-prudential framework construction; strengthening coordination and clearing responsibilities to prevent the policy objectives and regulatory become divorced.
The mechanism of formation and measurement of the systemic financial risks has always been a hot topic and difficulty of academia. Although in reality there can not be a complete indicator system to accurately warning or even measure systemic financial risk, but this does not prevent us using necessary technical means to measure the systemic financial risk. However, many foreign advanced models can not be applied in China, only the factor analysis method is more suitable. The index system which built by the factor analysis, including the macroeconomic environment, financial system stability, the risk of government debt, the risk of foreign investment and exchange rate impact, and the quality of management of financial institutions. As seen from the empirical results, only in2003and2004, systemic financial risks in China did not fully exposed, the status of other years are not optimistic. From2005, the risk have been showing the increased trend gradually, and reached its highest point in2009. In short, the financial situation is very grim, although in certain extent the situation is effected by the international financial crisis, but the implementation of macro-prudential supervision is still urgent. By analyzing the coefficient of factor score, it can be found that improving the macroeconomic environment, stabilizing the financial system and controlling foreign exchange rate impact of risk have more effectiveness on reducing the risk of systemic financial, which compare to better government debt risk and improve the quality of management of financial institutions, and that is the key of macro-prudential supervision.
As our country got a long-term period of planned economy, the development of market economy is not mature, and given the special circumstances of the primary stage of socialism in China, the development of financial markets is not sufficient, the overall financial supervision focus on state administrative control, the concept of supervision lag seriously. We need to make a change in the fundamental concept, so as to respond to systemic financial risks more effectively, which including:establishing the concept of supervision concerned with the overall risk rather than "split"; extremely optimizing the external nature of the systemic financial risks; being based on risk management rather than being based on fixed rules of framework; monitoring data of financial institutions is not equivalent to the level of systemic financial risk. The current implementation of the macro-prudential still faces many problems:market participants, market regulators, and the complexity of market system itself. The importance of macro-prudential supervision includes sound macroeconomic regulation and control, the reformation of financial system and combing with our special conditions. On building of the regulatory framework, the State Council need to set up a macro-prudential committee, which position is ministerial level, directly under the State Council, carrying out corresponding duties and specific tasks. Arrangements that perfect the macro-prudential supervision framework include:inventing effective macro-prudential supervision tools; strengthening the financial infrastructure, and improving early warning mechanism of systemic financial risk; further regularize China's capital market in order to prevent asset bubble; expanding the scope of regulation and strengthening the supervision of important systemically financial institutions and financial innovation; enhancing policy coordination and sectoral coordination to realize financial stability; increasing international communication and international cooperation.
引文
9巴塞尔银行监管委员会,《流动性风险计量、标准与监测的国际协议(征求意见稿)》
11 Jeannette Muller. Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion Journal of Financial Services Research 2006, (29):37-60.
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