摘要
商业银行是我国金融体系的重要组成部分,在我国经济运行和社会发展中发挥着不可或缺的作用。因此,如何客观、公正的评价商业银行的运行效率以及分析效率的影响因素,提出可行的政策建议已成为学界和业界共同关心的重要课题。
对商业银行效率进行测度,并研究其影响因素,既可为商业银行调整资源配置和经营管理策略提供经验数据,也可为监管机构实行有针对性的监管措施提供理论依据,这对于我国银行业的转型发展和金融安全稳定都具有重要的现实意义。
从国内外研究情况来看,关于银行效率的研究较多,也取得了一定的研究成果,但缺乏对我国商业银行效率的全面评价,主要存在研究方法的单一及理论分析的不足等问题,特别是对我国商业银行股份制改造成功上市后的效率表现及2008年金融危机对我国银行效率的影响还没有深入的分析。因此本文将注重从三个方面来对我国商业银行的效率及其影响因素进行研究：①注重全面考察我国商业银行效率的现实问题。针对现有大部分文献只是从一个方面或者一个视角来测度银行效率的情况,本文注重对我国商业银行效率进行全方面的考察。即选择对能够代表我国商业银行整体实力和水平的5家国有银行和9家全国性股份制商业银行2004年至2011年的效率表现进行评价,这个研究区间基本涵盖了2003年以来我国商业银行的市场化改革、引进战略投资者、公司治理结构建设、股份制改造上市及2008年全球金融危机对我国商业银行的影响等历次重要事件,能够较为公允、合理的对银行效率进行评价。②注重多种研究方法的综合运用。本文对不同范畴的银行效率进行测度时,分别采用了非参数法和参数方法,两种方法的综合运用可避免研究方法的单一性,提高效率测度的公允性。再者,在银行效率影响因素实证研究中,运用DEA-Tobit模型和动态面板GMM估计模型分别对影响银行技术效率、成本效率和利润效率的因素进行分析,丰富了银行效率影响因素的研究方法。③注重效率理论的梳理与归纳。本文对效率理论的内涵、起源、发展以及各个流派的思想进行系统的梳理和归纳,在此基础上进一步总结银行效率测度理论和效率影响因素的相关理论,这不仅为后面的效率测度和分析打下坚实的理论基础,而且弥补了以往研究对银行效率理论分析的不足。
按照上述的研究思路,本文的结构框架安排如下。
第一章为绪论。本章首先介绍了本文的研究背景,从理论和实践两方面说明了本文的研究意义,归纳了本文的研究思路及文章结构,总结了本文使用的研究方法,并指出了本文的可能创新之处。
第二章为国内外银行效率研究的文献综述。本章主要回顾了银行效率研究及效率影响因素研究的相关国内外文献,按照时间演变顺序与研究方法的不同,对国内外相关学者的研究成果进行了阐述。最后,对国内外文献进行了评析,并指出了国内外银行效率相关研究的不足之处。
第三章为商业银行效率理论与研究方法。本章对效率的定义、内涵、效率理论的发展和演变,以及效率理论的流派观点都进行了系统的梳理和归纳,并阐述了商业银行效率的内涵,在此基础上对商业银行效率进行了界定与分类；接着按时间先后顺序介绍了效率测度理论的发展演变,并重点总结了商业银行效率的研究方法,比较分析了各研究方法的应用范围和适用条件,概括了效率测度中投入产出指标的选择问题。最后对银行效率影响因素的相关理论进行了归纳总结。
第四章为基于非参数方法的我国商业银行效率测度。本章选择非参数法中的DEA法来测度我国商业银行的技术效率和Malmquist全要素生产率。本章首先根据商业银行的行业特点设定DEA效率评价模型,并选择人力资本、固定资产和营业支出作为投入指标,非利息收入和扣除不良贷款的总贷款为产出指标；接着从静态的角度对银行的技术效率及其分解效率进行测度,并分析银行效率的变化趋势以及各个银行之间、国有银行和股份制银行之间的效率差异；最后从动态的角度对银行的Malmquist指数及其分解进行测度,并分析了我国商业银行Ma1mquist全要素生产率的变动趋势。
第五章为基于参数方法的我国商业银行效率测度。本章运用参数法中的SFA法来构建超越对数函数的Battese和Coelli(1995)银行效率评价模型,来验证我国商业银行成本效率和利润效率的现实情况。本章基于考察银行成本控制能力和利润创造能力的考虑,选择劳动力、实务资本和可贷资金为投入指标,利息收入和非利息收入为产出指标,对银行效率进行测度。接着对成本效率和利润效率的变化态势进行分析,对比分析股份制银行和国有银行的效率差距,并分析造成成本效率和利润效率在不同时间变动的深层次原因。
第六章为我国商业银行效率影响因素的实证研究。本章是对影响我国商业银行效率的因素进行分析与检验。本章从实证的角度对影响我国商业银行技术效率、成本效率和利润效率的因素进行研究,即分别运用DEA-Tobit模型和动态面板GMM估计模型对上述问题进行回归分析,来检验影响我国商业银行效率的因素。
第七章为本文的总结。本章归纳总结了银行效率测度的结果以及银行效率的影响因素,形成了严谨、统一的研究结论；并有针对性的提出了提高我国商业银行效率的可行性措施。最后指出了本文研究的不足,并提出了未来研究的方向。
根据上述的研究思路及文章结构安排,经过相应的效率测度和实证分析,本文得出以下的基本研究结论。
(1)2004年以来,我国商业银行的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率总体较高,各自的效率均值几乎都处于0.9以上,年均效率呈现波动变化趋势但幅度不大；股份制银行的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率总体上都高于国有银行；2008年的金融危机对我国商业银行的规模效率没有影响,但对纯技术效率的提高有明显的促进作用,从而带动了技术效率水平的提升。
(2)我国商业银行的全要素生产率在2004-2011年间不断得到改善,大部分年份呈增长趋势,年均Malmquist指数增长6.2%,其中技术进步增长5.2%,效率变化指数增长1.2%,这些数据结果表明我国商业银行全要素生产率的提高主要依靠的是技术进步的推动作用,效率改善的贡献相对次之。国有银行和股份制银行相比,2008年以前国有银行的全要素生产率要低于股份制银行,但2008年后国有银行的全要素生产率总体上超越股份制银行,而这主要依靠的是其效率改善的支撑作用。
(3)2004年以来,我国商业银行的成本效率和利润效率总体上是增加的,这说明近年来银行的一系列改革有力的促进了银行成本控制能力和利润创造能力的提高。而2008年的全球金融危机严重的影响了我国商业银行的成本效率和利润效率,造成二者效率值的大幅度降低。通过成本效率和利润效率的变化趋势来看,两者存在明显的顺周期性特征,这说明我国商业银行的经营管理和业务结构受经济环境和宏观政策的影响较大,银行的成本控制能力和利润创造能力易受宏观经济环境的制约。股份制银行的成本效率和利润效率都远高于国有银行,但股份制银行彼此之间的效率差距及变动趋势相差较大。我国商业银行的成本效率略高于利润效率,这说明银行成本的控制能力强于利润的创造能力；但通过两者效率的变动趋势来看,本文认为利润效率能较好的反映我国商业银行的实际情况。
(4)我国商业银行的技术效率主要受银行自身因素的影响,与行业因素和宏观经济因素没有相关关系。具体来说,资产收益率、存贷比和金融创新度与技术效率呈显著正相关关系；资产费用率、不良贷款率和银行规模与技术效率呈显著负相关关系；产权结构与技术效率不存在显著的相关关系,这说明在目前情况下,我国商业银行改革已经进入深化期,产权已不再是影响银行效率的重要因素了。而成本效率和利润效率不仅受到资产收益率、不良贷款率和银行规模等银行自身特征因素的影响,更主要受到银行业市场结构和宏观经济环境的影响。良好的经济增长形势、公平的市场竞争环境、协调的资本市场和货币市场关系等都能促进商业银行成本效率和利润效率的提高。
本文的可能创新之处在于：
(1)在效率理论分析上,本文对效率理论的内涵、起源、发展以及各个流派的思想都进行了系统的梳理和归纳,在此基础上进一步总结了银行效率测度理论和效率影响因素的相关理论,弥补了以往研究对银行效率相关理论分析的不足。
(2)在研究视角上,本文运用非参数方法中的DEA法从静态和动态的角度分别对我国商业银行的技术效率和Malmquist全要素生产率进行了测度,静态和动态相结合的视角有利于探究银行效率的变动趋势和效率变动的源泉,而类似采用DEA法同时从静态和动态对银行效率进行测度的文献相对较少,且分析较为浅薄。
(3)在研究方法上,本文选择非参数方法和参数方法分别设定DEA效率评价模型和超越对数函数的SFA模型来对我国商业银行效率进行测度,避免了采用一种研究方法的单一性,参数法和非参数法的综合运用也为后续开展银行效率研究提供了方法上的参考。再者,本文采用DEA-Tobit模型和动态面板GMM估计模型对影响我国商业银行效率的因素进行研究和分析,规避了传统的最小二乘法估计和其他回归分析研究中存在的不足,使参数的估计值更加稳健、可靠,更符合实际情况。
(4)在研究结论上,本文通过对我国商业银行成本效率和利润效率的测度,发现成本效率和利润效率的变动趋势具有明显的顺周期性特征,并且股份制银行对经济周期的反应要强于国有银行,这说明股份制银行的市场化程度要高于国有银行,其受外部宏观经济环境的影响更大。类似结论在国内银行效率研究中很少有学者提出。
Commercial banks are the significant elements of the financial system and play a fundamental role to the economic and social development. The study, therefore, on the efficiency of commercial banks, the analyses of factors influencing the efficiency, as well as feasible recommendations on the efficiency have already been among primary topics in the academics and industrial world.
The present researches on the measurement and the influential factors of commercial bank's efficiency would not only provide commercial banks with empirical data for allocation of resources and management strategies, but also provide regulatory authorities with the theoretical basis. It has significant meaning to the restructuring, development and stabilization of banking industry in China.
Though the studies and researches on bank efficiency have made rich achievements at home and abroad, the lack of comprehensive evaluation of Chinese commercial bank efficiency, the insufficient of research methods and lacks of theoretical analysis are main deficiencies. Especially, the analyses and researches on commercial bank's efficiency after the joint-stock reform and how the financial crisis in2008affects the banking efficiency should have been caught more attention. This paper discusses the commercial bank's efficiency and the factors affecting the efficiency from three points. Firstly, five state-owned commercial banks and nine joint-stock banks, which represented the overall level of Chinese commercial banks, were chosen to evaluate the performance of banking efficiency from2004to2011. During that range of time, a series of major reforms and transformations occurred in banking system in China, such as market-oriented reform, joint-stock reform, introduction of strategic investors, construction of Company management, global financial crisis in2008and so on. All these events have significant influence to the banks of China. Second, this paper pays much attention to Comprehensive research methods. The techniques using to analyze the measurement of efficiency include parametric method, non-parametric method, DEA-Tobit Model, Dynamic GMM Estimate, etc. Thirdly, this paper claims importance to the Carding and generalizing of efficiency theory. It generalizes Connotation, Origin, Developing and Various schools of thought of Efficiency Theory, etc.
According to the research ideas, the present dissertation includes the following seven chapters:
The first chapter is to introduce the backgrounds of the research. The significance of the paper is revealed from both theoretical and practical worlds. Also, the structure and methods of the thesis is introduced, as well as the may-called innovation.
The second chapter is the literature reviews, including the researches on bank efficiency and related factors at home and aboard divided by different time periods and diversified methodologies. Also the defects of these studies are pointed out in this part.
The third chapter discusses the theories and the methodologies of banking efficiency. The author defines efficiency, describes the development of the efficiency theory, and summarizes the relevant researches. The author finally introduces various methodologies and their own scope of application in the last part.
The fourth chapter is to measure Chinese commercial banking efficiency basing on the non-parametric method. The author applies DEA of the non-parametric method to measure the technical efficiencies and Malmquist TFP of commercial banks in China.
The fifth chapter is to measure the efficiency of Chinese commercial bank with the parametric method. The researcher uses SFA of the parametric method to build the logarithmic function of Battese and Coelli(1995) bank efficiency valuation model, with the purpose of verifying Chinese commercial banks'cost and profit efficiency.
The sixth chapter is about the empirical study on the relevant factors of banking efficiency, in other words, the author focuses on analyzing and testing related elements of commercial banks' technical efficiency, cost and profit efficiency from the empirical perspective.
The last chapter is the conclusion of the whole paper. The researcher concludes by the study above. Meanwhile, the author gives the feasible suggestions to enhance the efficiency of commercial banks in china, with targeting the defects of the present study and proposing the further direction of the future research.
According to the whole research, and through efficiency measurements and corresponding empirical analysis, we draw the following basic conclusions.
(i)Technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of Chinese commercial banks are relatively high since2004, almost each annual efficiency value is above0.9. The annual efficiency presents a fluctuated trend, but the fluctuation is modest. The technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of joint-stock banks are higher than those of state-owned banks. Although the financial crisis of2008has no effects on the scale efficiency of banks in china, it evidently promotes the improvement of pure technical efficiency, thus a improvement of the technical efficiency.
(ii)The TFP of China's commercial banks has a constant improvement between2004and2011. There was a growing trend in most of those years. The TFP of commercial banks increased by6.2%during8years, among which technical efficiency grew by5.2%, efficiency change index rose by1.2%. This shows that technology plays an important role in improving Chinese commercial banks' efficiency, and the improvement of efficiency has a less effect. Compared to joint-stock banks, state-owned banks had a lower TFP before2008. However, the TFP of state-owned banks was above that of joint-stock banks after2008. It mainly relies on the changes of efficiency of state-owned banks.
(iii)The cost and profit efficiency of Chinese commercial banks have been being increasing since2004, data shows that the series of commercial bank reforms have promoted the ability of cost controlling and profits creating. And, the global financial crisis has a bad influence on the cost and profit efficiency of Chinese commercial banks. Specifically, the pro-cyclical existing in cost and profit efficiency constrained by the economic environment and macro policy have a great effect on Chinese commercial banks' management and business structure. The cost and profit efficiency of joint-stock banks is much higher than that of state-owned banks. However, efficiency and the changing trend of individual banks differ greatly.The cost efficiency is slightly higher than the profit efficiency, etc.
(iv)The technical efficiency is influenced by the banks themselves rather than the banking market structure and macro-economic environment Returns on assets, LDR and financial innovation are significantly positively related to technical efficiency, while Assets rate, non-performing loan ratio and bank size are negatively related to it. But, there is no significant correlation between Ownership structure and technical efficiency. And the cost and profit efficiency mainly depends on market structure and macro-economic factors. The fair market competitive environment, higher market share, easy monetary policy and great capital market could benefit the improvement of cost and profit efficiency.
The paper would be innovative in the following aspects:
(i)Theoretical analysis. This paper has carded and generalized Connotation, Origin, Developing and Various schools of thought of Efficiency Theory. And it also compensates for insufficient theoretical analysis of previous studies on efficiency of Bank.
(ii)Research perspective. This paper applies DEA of non-parametric method from both static and dynamic angle, but existing literature rarely use the same research methods.
(iii)Research methodology. This paper uses DEA efficiency valuation model and SFA model in both non-parametric and parametric methods to measure Chinese commercial banks efficiency. Furthermore, the author applies DEA-Tobit model and dynamic panel GMM estimation model to analyze the relevant factors affecting bank efficiency, and it avoids the probable problems with the least squares regression estimation and other traditional methods.
(iv)Research conclusion. The research concludes that cost and profit efficiency shares the obvious pro-cyclical trend, and joint-stock banks react more sharply to economic cycle than state-owned banks, which indicates that the market-orientation of the former is more deeply than the latter.
引文
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