摘要
在电力系统深刻变革的背景下，传统的只注重设备自身的维修模式已经不能满足智能电网高级资产管理对资产全面优化的要求。电力设备维修的根本目的是降低系统风险，为用户提供经济可靠的电能供应。因此维修决策不应只决定于设备本身的状态，还应考虑设备失效对系统可靠性的影响。目前的现状由于缺乏基于状态监测量的系统风险评估模型，维修决策优化只能在设备层和系统层分别进行，未能建立统一的优化模型，维修资源得不到合理分配。
本论文改进了基于状态监测量的设备可修复故障率模型并提出了基于状态监测量的设备老化不可用率模型，并在此基础上，提出了将设备状态和系统风险相结合的统一维修决策思想。不但具备状态维修方法利用状态监测技术准确掌握设备健康状况的优点，而且还能够直接评估设备状态变化对系统可靠性的影响，使得可以实施从设备层到系统层的全面维修优化决策。对各种不同的维修主题进行了研究探讨，包括待修设备集选择、维修日程规划、设备老化更新策略、维修中的经济性分析、总体维修决策和电力市场机制下的维修策略。研究对象包括发电、输电、变电系统中的不同设备，针对这些设备在系统中的不同特点，提出了相应的维修策略和计算方法。
对发电机的维修策略进行了探讨，研究了在电力市场环境下各发电厂商与ISO协调的机组维修日程规划问题，提出了基于竞价的发电机组多目标优化维修策略。针对现有机组维修时段竞价策略有可能导致发电厂商恶意竞价的问题，提出了对维修时段竞价过程的约束机制，规范了发电厂商的竞价行为。利用NSGA-II算法直接求解发电机维修多目标优化问题，避免了将多目标模型转换为单目标模型的缺点，并利用求解出的非劣解集建立了确定最终维修方案的投票策略。机组维修优化过程保证了维修方案的经济性，系统的可靠性，和发电厂商之间竞争的公平性。
对架空线维修决策进行了研究，改进了基于状态监测的三参数指数故障率模型的评估方法，建立了线路状态监测量与系统风险之间的定量联系。解决了定量评估架空线维修效果的问题，提出了架空线维修的可靠性效益指标和维修费效用指标，根据架空线的维修费效用指标对线路进行排序，使单位费用提升可靠性高的线路优先得到维修，单位费用提升可靠性低的线路后维修，并在每一步维修决策过程中校核维修费预算，以最经济最可靠的方式来安排架空线维修。
对变压器老化更新问题进行了研究，利用变压器状态监测量与变压器的绝缘年龄之间的数学关系建立了基于状态监测量的变压器老化失效不可用率模型，这样就可以利用状态监测量直接定量评估变压器老化对系统风险的影响。基于计算变压器老化失效引起的期望损失费用和推迟变压器更新获得的收益，确定最佳退役年龄。这种方法能够控制变压器由于老化对系统造成的风险影响，避免在系统中重要位置的老化变压器过晚退役对系统造成的风险和在系统中不重要位置的老化变压器过早退役造成资产浪费。
对断路器的维修策略进行了研究，提出了一种断路器状态评估方法，这种方法利用断路器操动机构二次侧分合闸线圈中电流、电压曲线以及辅助开关的动作时间来评估断路器的状态，并利用非参数核密度估计方法计算出断路器状态的概率分布，更加全面地反映了断路器的实际状态。利用基于状态监测量的断路器状态的概率分布，计算出断路器状态异常的概率，把断路器的异常概率与断路器对变电站风险的影响相结合，提出了断路器维修决策方法，在兼顾断路器状态和变电站风险的情况下确定经济可靠的维修方式。
The traditional maintenance methods that concentrate on equipment itself butignore impacts of equipment failure on system cannot meet the requirements ofadvanced asset management in smart grids. The fundamental target of maintenance is toreduce system risks and increase reliability and economy of power supply. Themaintenance strategy of equipment should be determined by not only its own conditionbut also the effect of its failure on system risk. At the present, system reliabilityassessment does not use equipment condition monitoring data but only uses the averagefailure rate of equipment, and condition monitoring based maintenance and reliabilitycentered maintenance are implemented separately.
To overcome the barrier, the thesis presents a repairable failure rate model basedon condition monitoring data and an ageing failure unavailability model based oncondition monitoring data. The maintenance strategy of combining equipment conditionmonitoring and system risk evaluation is proposed using the two models. With such amaintenance strategy, both equipment condition and system risk can be considered in aunified maintenance process. Various different topics have been investigated includingselection of maintenance candidate set, maintenance scheduling, replacement of ageingequipment, economic analysis in maintenance, overall maintenance procedure andmaintenance strategy under power market environment. Maintenances of different typesof equipment in generation, transmission and substation have been studied, and thecorresponding maintenance strategies and calculation methods have been are proposed.
The maintenance scheduling method of generators is studied under the powermarket environment. A multi-objective maintenance optimization model based onbidding is proposed. A constraint mechanism to regulate possible abnormal behaviors ofgenerator companies is presented. The NSGA-II algorithm is utilized to solve thegenerator maintenance multi-objective model. This algorithm can avoid the drawback oftransforming a multi-objective to a single-objective in conventional methods. Aresulting non-inferior solution set is used to build the voting strategy for determining thefinal maintenance scheme, which can guarantee the economy of maintenance solutions,system reliability and fairness among generator companies.
The maintenance strategy of overhead lines is studied. A new failure rate modelbased on condition monitoring data is presented to establish the quantified relationship between condition monitoring data and system risk. The quantitative maintenanceeffectiveness can be determined. The Maintenance Reliability Benefit Index and theMaintenance Cost Utility Index are proposed. The maintenance ranking order is createdusing a benefit/cost ratio index. An overhead line whose maintenance can improvesystem reliability more will be automatically maintained before a line whosemaintenance can improve system reliability less. The maintenance budget constraint canbe incorporated into the process of an economic and reliable maintenance scheme.
The replacement strategy of ageing transformers is studied. The unavailability oftransformer ageing failure is calculated using the relationship between conditionmonitoring data and insulation age so that the system risk can be evaluated bymonitored measurements. The expected damage cost due to ageing failures and thebenefit due to delaying the replacement of transformer are evaluated respectively todetermine the best replacement timing. The proposed method can control the systemrisk due to transformer ageing failures, which avoids either too late retirement ofequipment at important locations or too early retirement of equipment at unimportantlocations.
The maintenance of circuit breakers is studied. An evaluation method of circuitbreaker condition is proposed using the information on mechanical parts and secondarycircuits which can be identified by analyzing the waveforms of trip-and close-coilcurrent, waveforms of contact voltage transition, operation times of different auxiliarycontacts, and trip and close initiation time. A non-parametric kernel density evaluationmethod is used to assess the probability distribution of a breaker condition index. Thenthe probability of a circuit breaker operating in the abnormal condition can be assessed.With the abnormal probability and the system risk of substation, the maintenancestrategy of circuit breakers with economy and reliability is presented.
引文
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