摘要
本论文以消费者感知效用为主线,以推理行为理论为核心,对电子商务环境下的消费者行为进行了研究。
首先以菲什拜因的态度意图理论为基础,通过对消费者隐性成本和需求特点的分析,结合技术接纳模型和技术创新扩散理论,认为消费者的感知风险,感知可用性和感知易用性对消费者网上购物态度产生影响,同时考虑消费者的创新特性对消费者意图的直接影响和通过影响消费者态度进而对消费者意图的间接影响,建立了一个设想的从态度到意图以至做出购买决策的消费者行为态度模型。通过可信度分析和假设检验,确定了电子商务环境下的消费者行为态度模型。
接着以著名的巴斯扩散模型为基础,对电子商务环境下的消费者创新扩散行为影响因素进行了分析,针对Bass 扩散模型的特点以及应用领域,按照电子商务环境下的消费者创新扩散特点,对消费者的扩散行为进行了适当的假设,从电子商务环境下的消费者态度特性角度出发,把消费者分为三种不同类型的消费者,创新者、模仿者和滞后者,根据三种不同态度类型的消费者受大众传媒、商品或者服务的价格,以及人际关系的影响程度不同,设计了消费者创新扩散行为的模拟结构和流程,利用Agentsheets 模拟软件,对电子商务环境下的消费者创新扩散行为进行模拟。Bass 扩散模型只考虑了单代产品与服务的扩散与管理,因此紧接着从多代产品扩散和个体消费者角度建立了升级换代型产品的选择模型,结合技术产品升级替代模型和重复购买模型的特点,从多代产品之间的技术替代和重复购买方面研究消费者选择行为。针对升级换代型产品的特点,从行为经济学的有限理性消费者假设出发,建立了升级换代型产品的消费者选择logit 模型。考虑到个人计算机应用的普遍性,以个人计算机为升级换代型产品为代表设计问卷,利用收集到的数据资料,采用统计分析方法,对模型进行了拟合优度检验以及参数估计。并以重复购买个人计算机的消费者为例,基于市场可供选择的计算机产品限制,计算了重复购买各计算机产品代的概率,并对结果进行了分析和解释。
消费者在选择商品与服务时,面临各种偏好冲突。在对电子商务环境下的消费者偏好冲突特点进行分析后,在对消费者偏好进行假设的基础上,分析了偏好冲突模型建立时可能存在的误差问题,为了尽可能减少模型误差,基于相依排列期望效用理论,
The paper focuses on the consumer's perceived utility and the theory of reasonned action, and research has been done on the consumer behavior in the electronic business environment.
Firstly, based on Fishbein's attitude intention theory, after the hidden cost and demand characteristics of the consumers having been analyzed, combined with the technology adoption model and innovation diffusion theory, it has been taken into account that the consumers perceived risks, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use have effect on the consumers attitude .What’s more, personal innovation does not only influence the consumers intention but also influences the consumers intention by way of consumers attitude , a hypothesized model has been set up which is from attitude to intention and intention is related to decision. After reliability analysis and hypothesis test having been tested, the consumer behavior attitude model in the e-commerce environment has been established.
Then in the light of the most famous Bass diffusion model, after having been discussed about the influence factors of consumer innovation behavior diffusion in the e-commerce environment, based on the Bass model restriction and application, according to the diffusion characteristics in the electronic commerce environment, after the rational suppose of the consumer innovation diffusion behavior having been made, three types of consumers originated from consumers attitude characteristics have appeared: innovations , imitations and laggards. The simulation structure and procedure of the diffusion behavior of consumers has been designed based on three different attitude characteristics because three types of consumers are influenced by the media, the products or services price and people around consumers differently. The consumer innovation diffusion behavior in the e-commerce environment has been simulated by means of the simulation software of Agentsheets.
Owing to the Bass model only aims to one single product diffusion and management, and then the choice model of multi-generation product has been set up in the light of
multi-generation product diffusion and an individual consumer, combined with the product substitute model of technological products and the repeated purchase model, consumer selection behavior has been studied in the light of the substitution of multi-generation products and repeated purchase. According to the characteristic of the technology product and the behavior economics suppose of the bounded rational consumers, it has been set up about the logit model of consumers choice probability. Because of the wide application of the personal computer, personal computer is regarded as a representative of the multi-generation products and a questionnaire has been designed. The collected data has been taken to examine the fit degree of the model and the estimation of the model parameter. It has been taken an example for an individual consumer who will buy the personal computer repeatedly, and the repeated purchase probability of personal computer in the markets available . What’s more, the result of the model has been analyzed and explained. Preference conflicts appears when faced with the selection of products and services. After the preference conflict of the consumers having been analyzed in the e-commerce environment, and the existing possible error to the preference conflict model has been discussed. According to the suppose of the consumers preferences, it has been set up a model based on the rank dependent expected utility theory to reduce model error that is about consumer's preference conflict in the limited resource and restricted conditions. By means of the data which has been acquired on the condition that consumers make decisions in different scales and probability in the course of an online investigation, it has been estimated about the preference parameter of the model and it has been put forward that the method has been adopted to minimize the parameter estimation error. And still then integration the consumer behavior research results of marketing research, sociology, psychology with economics synthetically, consumer behavior qualitative simulation has been studied. In psychology’s opinion, consumer behavior is that cognition causes the brand comparison and purchase decision. In sociology’s opinion, consumer behavior is an activity which is related to social networks. In economics opinion, consumer behavior is wholly relational or bounded relational based on the comparison the price and information search cost. After the analysis of e-commerce consumer behavior
characteristics in the electronic commerce environment, integrated the consumer behavior efforts with different fields and combined the qualitative simulation theory with the quantitative process simulation theory, according to the different attitude characteristics of consumers who are innovations, imitations and laggards, the corresponding simulation decision rule has been designed, and the qualitative simulation system has been established that is about the consumer behavior in the e-commerce environment. Finally, based on the different consumer demand characteristics in the different life cycle of the consumers in the e-commerce environment, according to the consumer different preference and consumer demand which is regarded as the direction, consumer demand proxy system has been established based on Agents. It has been adopted in the system about the information filter technology mixed with the consumer profiling, non-linear regression negotiation strategy and the comparative tactics of neighbor suggestion and the recommendation method based on threshold value of utility. It has been designed about the workflow of demand proxy agent which is integrated the consumer profiling, negotiation, optimization with recommendation. Based on the ZEUS Agent development platform, it has been realized which is referred to the basic function of the implementation system.
引文
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