摘要
人类自从农业文明进入工业文明之后,生产力成几何级数增长,天然的好奇心以及满足自身各类需求的驱动力推动着人类社会向前发展。当城市化发展成为人类社会主要的发展方式并在可预见的未来仍将维持这一发展方式的情况下,时代向我们提出了一个新的命题——可持续发展。
在可持续发展的背景下,以建设低碳经济为核心发展低碳城市、绿色城市等一系列概念被世界各国提出并积极实践,尽管世界各国都对全球温室气体排放负有共同的责任,但是在无法绝对公平的国际社会秩序中碳减排成为了制约发展中国家自我发展的约束,并成为了与发达国家贫富差距越拉越大的一个重要原因。
改革开放以来的中国经济与社会发生了翻天覆地的变化,人民生活水平逐年提高,国家经济实力逐渐增强。在经济全球化的背景下,伴随经济实力的增强,中国的国际地位日渐提高,同时所承担的国际责任也越大,在温室气体减排领域做出了卓绝的努力,并承诺到2020年将国内单位GDP碳排放降低到比2005年低40%45%。
面临国内巨大的人口就业压力,保持经济持续稳定的增长是我国的首要任务。在碳减排和经济发展的平衡问题上不能为了降低温室气体排放而降低经济增长速度,也不能为了经济增长而牺牲环境并不顾自身在国际社会中的影响和形象。因此选择一条可持续的、以低碳经济为核心的、建设低碳城市为手段的社会发展道路是考虑当下国际、国内环境和自身基础实力做出的正确决定。也正因为在这样的大背景下,在传统碳排放研究陷入某种固定模式而无重大创新的情况下,本研究采取一种新的研究方法,通过更加全面的碳排放核算来研究中国隐含碳排放及其对中国低碳城市建设的影响。
本文基本思路如下：第一、对碳排放、隐含碳排放、低碳城市化、城市低碳化等一系列重要概念进行重新定义；第二、利用隐含碳核算方法,根据掌握的投入产出表数据,利用I-O模型进行中国隐含碳排放量的初步核算；第三、利用Kaya'恒等式、以及LMDI分解方法对驱动中国隐含碳排放变化的因素进行分解；第四、根据分析结论,结合理论分析中国低碳城市建设的支撑要素及框架选择并提出政策建议。
本研究共分为六大部分,其基本结构及内容如下：
第一章为导论部分,该部分就本研究的选题意义、目的、将使用的研究方法、研究内容等进行了详细的叙述,同时回顾并梳理了近几十年来关于碳排放、隐含碳排放、可持续发展、低碳经济研究领域的诸多研究成果,为之后的研究打好基础。
第二章内容为低碳城市建设理论基础。本章主要从前人的经典著作、理论出发探寻支撑今日之低碳城市建设的有力证据,从不同的学科领域找到中国建设低碳城市、发展低碳经济、走可持续发展之路的可能性和必要性。这些理论包括：低碳经济理论、产业生态化理论、人口理论、建筑理论、文化理论等。
第三章主要内容为中国隐含碳排放进行实证分析。首先,对研究隐含碳排放之I-O模型进行了介绍,并根据中国国内的情况进行了模型构建。根据2007年投入产出表数据进行了中国隐含碳排放的核算,认为以2007年核算结果来看在各个产业部门中建筑业的隐含碳排放最高,服务性行业(合并后)作为产业链终端,其隐含碳排放在所有部门中排行第三,是产业碳减排应重点关注的部门。该部分还比较了各部门隐含碳排放占比与各产业产出占比,认为建筑业是碳排放最不经济的部门,而第三产业尽管隐含碳排放占比高但是其产出占比也很高,因此是碳排放较经济的部门。
第四章主要内容为对中国隐含碳排放变动的影响因素进行分解研究以期发现推动中国隐含碳排放的主要因素,并有针对性的给出意见。利用Kaya'恒等式、LMDI分解方法在计算1990-2007年有投入产出表数据的年份的隐含碳排放量、碳排放变动量及各因素的驱动贡献率的基础上分析了影响中国隐含碳排放变动的主要因素,这些因素分为两个层次8个因素：生产层面的经济规模效应、产业结构效应、经济效率效应、生产方式进步效应和生活层面的人口规模效应、人口结构效应、生活水平效应、生活方式进步效应,其中生产方式进步与生活方式进步是在两个层面上驱动中国隐含碳排放变动的主要因素。
第五章根据前述低碳城市建设理论基础以及实证分析提出中国建设低碳城市需要注意的五大支撑要素：低碳产业支撑、低碳人口支撑、低碳设施支撑、低碳文化支撑与低碳制度支撑。其中低碳产业与低碳人口支撑是经济基础与必要条件、低碳设施设施支撑是低碳城市与低碳经济的外在表现与物质基础、文化支撑是软性隐形机制、制度支撑是“支撑的支撑”,是一切低碳城市建设与实践活动的指导与约束。此外,通过详细比较“低碳城市化”与“城市低碳化”两个概念的异同,认为中国目前建设低碳城市走可持续发展道路需要实事求是地选择旧城以“城市低碳化”改造与重建为主和新城注重“低碳城市化”规划与设计为主相结合的发展模式。
第六章为总结全文的基础上得出结论、提出政策建议以及总结本研究中的不足之处,同时对于未来在该领域的研究作出展望。
纵观整个研究,在夯实理论的基础上采取了比较有说服力的数据分析方法,从理论和实证两个方面分析和说明了中国目前隐含碳排放的情况,同时就中国低碳城市建设走可持续发展道路与隐含碳排放之间的关系做了一定的说明,认为中国在全球化的大时代中和进入后经济危机时代的背景下建设低碳城市走可持续发展道路,除了延续节能减排、调整产业结构的思路之外,应该加大对低碳城市建设隐含碳排放的监测与核算,以期更加全面的认识中国在走可持续发展道路中和低碳城市建设中的真实碳排放情况,同时增加低碳城市建设的制度供给以保证低碳城市建设各个方面有条不紊的进行,既要避免制度缺位也要避免制度重叠,让制度发挥最大效用。此外,重视低碳文化建设对低碳城市建设的重要性,发掘传统优秀文化,整合现代流行文化,借鉴世界各国先进文化,为中国建设低碳城市所用,用文化的力量影响城市人口,培育城市低碳人口进而影响生产过程和生活过程低碳行为,并最终达到城市低耗能、低碳排放的可持续发展目标。
Mankind productivity has been through geometrical growth since human society came into the industrial civilization from the agricultural civilization. Natural curiosity and their various needs driving forward the development of human society. When the Urbanization become the main mode of development of human society and this development mode will remain the case in the foreseeable future, Our great era present us with a new proposition-Sustainable Development.
Under the background of Sustainable Development, a series of concepts as low-carbon city, green city etc. with core of low-carbon economy have been proposed and actively practiced by the governments of the world. Although countries in the world have a shared responsibility of the global greenhouse gas emissions, Carbon reduction duty has become a constraint of the developing countries for their self-development and this is also a important reason why the rich and poor gap between developing countries and developed countries is widen in such an international social order which can't be absolutely fair.
Since the reform and opening up policy has been carried out in1980s China's economy, society and any other aspects has undergone enormous changes people's living standards improve year by year and the nation's economic strength is greatly increased. Under the background of globalization, accompany with the economy strength level up, China's international status has gradually improved, take more international responsibility as made extraordinary efforts in greenhouse gas emission reduction and promised to reduce the carbon emission per GDP in2020by40%-45%lower than in2005.
Face with a huge domestic population and employment pressure, to maintain a steady economic growth is the primary task of China. In the balance of carbon emission reduction and economic development issue China is difficult to choose. Therefore, choose a sustainable way that take low-carbon economy as the core and low-carbon city as the mean to stimulate social development is a correct decision based on the current international and domestic environment and China's own fundamental strength. Without significant innovation in traditional carbon emissions research into a fixed pattern, we adopt a new research method in this study by Comprehensive calculation of carbon emission than the traditional one to study embodied carbon emissions in China and its impact on China's low-carbon city construction.
The basic ideas of this paper are as follows:1.Redefine a series of important concepts as Carbon Emission, Embodied Carbon Emission, Low-Carbon Urbanization, Urban Carbon Reduction etc.2.Use a new method to calculate the embodied carbon emission based on I-O model with Input-output table data.3. Decompose the factors driving the embodied carbon change in China with Kaya identical equation and LMDI decomposition method.4. Propose some advices according to the conclusion combined with theoretical analysis of China's low-carbon city construction support elements and framework.
This study is divided into six chapters; the basic structure and content are as follows:
Chapter1is the introduction. In this chapter, the significance of this research, the purpose of this research, methods will be used are described in detail, Reviewed and combed many research results in recent decades about carbon emission, embodied carbon emission, sustainable development, and low-carbon economy to lay a solid foundation for the following research.
Chapter2is about the theoretical basis of the low-carbon urban development. In this chapter we try to explore the strong evidence in former classical theories to support today's low-carbon urban construction, to find the possibility and necessity of constructing the low-carbon city, developing the low-carbon economy and taking the road of sustainable development in China from a variety of disciplines. These theories include:low-carbon economy theory, ecological industry theory, demographic theory, culture theory and architectural theory.
Chapter3introduced the I-O model which is the main tool in study of the embodied carbon emission, and set a specific model based on China's domestic situation. We calculated the embodied carbon emission in China based the input-output table data2007, and the conclusion is that based on the2007calculation the construction industry is the highest embodied carbon emission industry, and as the terminal of the industry chain the embodied carbon emission of service industry (merged) ranked the third place in all sectors. Besides, we also compared the proportion of each sector's embodied carbon emission and the proportion of each sector's output, and concluded that the construction industry is the most diseconomy one, although the service industry's embodied carbon emission proportion is high, its output is also very considerable. Finally we calculated the embodied carbon emissions for Sichuan Province in2007and the conclusion is basically the same with the national situation.
In Chapter4we used Kaya equation and LMDI decomposition method to study the factors that affect the embodied carbon emission change in China with input-output table data available from1990to2007. We divided those factors into two level8effects:The economies of scale effect, the industrial structure effect, the economic efficiency effect, effect of progress of production methods in the production level and population scale effect, population structure effect, living standard effect, effect of progress of lifestyle in the life aspect. Finally, we conclude as follow:The effect of production progress and lifestyle progress are the main factors to drive the change of the embodied carbon emissions in China on their own level.
On the base of the previous analyze, we proposed five supporting elements need to pay attention to which support the construction of a low-carbon city in China in Chapter5. These are:industry support, population support, facilities support, culture support and Institutional support. Among those support factors the industry support is the most basic one; Population support the necessary condition and facilities are the outward manifestation and material basis; The Cultural Support is a soft and invisible mechanism; institutional support is the ultimate support factor of all, it provide guidance and constraints to all low-carbon city construction activities, as well as certain rights given to the city constructors and inhabitants. In the rest of this part we compared "low-carbon urbanization" and "Urban de-carbonization" in detail which may have the same meaning in Chinese words and usually be misunderstood from one to another, and finally we conclude that for the sake of the inner and outer consequences China should choose the combine pattern with two patterns mentioned above.
Chapter6concluded the paper on the basis of conclusion, made policy recommendations, summarized the inadequacies of the study, and anticipated the outlook for future research in the field simultaneously.
In summary, we used a more convincing data analysis method after the Rigorous theoretical study to illustrate the embodied carbon emission status in China theoretically and empirically. A description of the relationship between China's low-carbon urban construction path of sustainable development and the embodied carbon emission was given at the same time, and there is a conclusion that besides the continuation of energy conservation and adjust the old industrial structure to be low-carbon there are a lot of other things to do such as embodied carbon emission monitor and calculation to get fully information about the carbon emission in urban area and provide more relational institutions to cover all aspects of the low-carbon city construction issues without any institution waste. Finally, we believe that culture can be more important in the low-carbon city construction process and it's better for us to absorb the advanced culture from other nations and dig out the outstanding culture of our own nation, pass the cultural essence to the population affect their living and productivity behavior, and eventually reach the low-energy consume and low-carbon emission goals of the sustainable development of the cities.
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5 冯相昭,邹骥.中国C02排放趋势的经济分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3)：43-47
8 Ang J. B. CO2 Emissions, Research and Technology Transfer in China[J]. Ecological Economics,2009 (10):2658-2665
1 牛叔文,丁永霞,李怡欣,罗光华,牛云翥.能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——.基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(5)：12-19
2 王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J],经济研究,2010(2)：123-136
3 林伯强,蒋竺均.中国C02的环境库兹涅兹曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009(4)：27-36
4 张增凯,郭菊娥,安尼瓦尔·阿木提.基于隐含碳排放的碳减排目标研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011(12)：4751
5 陈红敏.包含工业生产过程碳排放的产业部门隐含碳研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009(3)：25-31
1 姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松.中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素[J].生态学报,2011(19)：36-41
2 戴小文.中国隐含碳碳排放驱动因素分析[J].财经科学,2013(2)：101-112
1 齐哗,李惠民,徐 明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-13.
1 刘洪康,吴忠观.人口理论[M].西南财经大学出版社.成都1991：272-273
1 Ang B.W. Decomposition Analysis for Policy markring in Energy Which is the Preferred Method?[J]. Energy Policy.2004.(6)
2 Frank Ackerman, Masanobu Ishikawa, Mikio Suga. The carbon content of Japan-US trade[J]. Energy Policy 2007(35):4455-4462
2 Schaeffer, R, Sa c, AL. The Embodiment of Carbon As sociated with Brazilian Imports and Exports[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,1996,37, (6-8):955-960.
21 Ahmad, N, Wyckoff, AW. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods[R]. STI Working Paper DSTI/DOC, vol.15. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),Paris, France.2003
3 张增凯,郭菊娥,安尼瓦尔·阿木提.基于隐含碳排放的碳减排目标研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011(12)：47-51
4 陈红敏.包含工业生产过程碳排放的产业部门隐含碳研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009(3)：25-31
1 陈红敏.包含工业生产过程碳排放的产业部门隐含碳研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境.2009,3(19)27
1 胡兆光,段炜,肖潇,田建伟.基于ARE模型推导中国2010年投入产出表[J].能源技术经济,2011,(11).
1 Gale A. Boyd, Donald A. Hanson, Thomas Sterner. Decomposition of changes in energy intensity:A comparison of the Divisia index and other methods [J].Energy Economics.1988,4(10):309-312
2 Sun J W. Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity:A complete decomposition model [J]. Energy Economics,1998,1(20):85-100
3 Ang B W, Choi K. Decomposition of aggregate energy and gas emission intensities for industry.a refined divisia index method [J]. Energy,1997,3(18):59-74
1 王锋,吴丽华,杨超.中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究[J],经济研究,2010(2)：123-136
2 Ang B. W., Zhang F. Q., Choi K. Factori zing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators Through Decomposition[J], Energy,1998(6) 489-495
3 Zhang M., Mu H., Ning Y., Song Y. Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emission Over 1991-2006 in China[J]. Ecological Economics,2009(7):2122-2128.
4 Liu L., Fan Y., Wu G., Wei Y. Using LMDI Method to Analyze the Change of China's Industrial CO2 Emissions from Final Fuel Use:An Empirical Analysis[J]. Energy Policy,35(11):5892-5900.
5 宋德勇,卢忠宝.中国碳排放影响因素分解及其周期性波动研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009(3)：93-108
6 徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004J.中国人口·资源与环境,2006(6)78-85
7 冯相昭,邹骥.中国C02排放趋势的经济分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3)：43-47
8 Ang J. B. CO2 Emissions, Research and Technology Transfer in China[J]. Ecological Economics,2009 (10):2658-2665
9 姚亮,刘晶茹,王如松.中国居民消费隐含的碳排放量变化的驱动因素[J].生态学报,2011(19)：36-41
1 戴小文.中国隐含碳碳排放驱动因素分析[J].财经科学,2013(2)：101-112
1 胡兆光,段 炜,肖 潇,田建伟.基于ARE模型推导中国2010年投入产出表[J].能源技术经济,2011(11)：8-14
1 龙惟定,白 玮,梁浩,范蕊,张改景.低碳城市的城市形态和能源愿景[J].建筑科学.2010(2)：13-18
1 Great er London Authority. Action Today t o Protect Tomorrow:The Mayor's Climate Change Action Plan. February 2007. [EB/OL][2008-5-28]. http://www.london.gov. Uk/mayor/environment/climate-change/docs/ccap_fullreport.pdf
2 Great er London Authority. Action Today t o Protect Tomorrow:The Mayor's Climate Change Action Plan. February 2007. [EB/OL][2008-5-28]. http://www.london.gov. Uk/mayor/environment/climate-change/docs/ccap_fullreport.pdf
1 Hong, J. The effect of unit pricing system upon household solid waste management:the Korean experience [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,1999,57:1-10
* 碳中性是指通过各种削减或者吸收措施,实现当年二氧化碳净排放为零
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[22]刘洪康,吴忠观.人口理论[M].西南财经大学出版社.成都1991：272-273
[23]张增凯,郭菊娥,安尼瓦尔·阿木提.基于隐含碳排放的碳减排目标研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011(12)：47-51
[24]胡兆光,段炜,肖潇,田建伟.基于AR.E模型推导中国2010年投入产出表[J].能源技术经济,2011,(11)
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[26]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006(6)78-85
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[28]胡兆光,段炜,肖 潇,田建伟.基于ARE模型推导中国2010年投入产出表[J].能源技术经济,2011(11)：8-14
[29]龙惟定,白玮,梁浩,范蕊,张改景.低碳城市的城市形态和能源愿景[J].建筑科学.2010(2)：13-18