摘要
我国是一个农业大国,农业生产是人民生活的重要保障。化肥作为重要的农业生产资料,在保障农业可持续发展与粮食安全方面起着举足轻重的作用。随着我国化肥管理体制从严格的计划管理转变为市场化管理,化肥市场竞争日益激烈。我国化肥行业亟需引入现代化的管理思想,以提高整个行业的竞争力。
供应链管理是近年来学术界和企业界共同关注的热点问题。而目前从供应链管理的角度对化肥的生产、流通与消费展开系统研究的成果还相对较少。化肥企业则日益认识到,以供应链形式参与竞争的必要性。面对激烈的市场竞争,化肥供应链对于环境的适应性显得尤为重要。本文针对当前的研究现状,综合运用物流系统论、供应链管理思想、可拓理论、复杂系统思想、复杂适应系统理论、运筹学等理论及管理思想,展开了对于化肥供应链及其适应性的研究。本文的主要研究内容及成果包括：
(1)明确提出了化肥供应链的概念。本文在对农业供应链研究现状进行分析的基础上,提出实施化肥供应链运作模式不仅是围绕供应链中核心企业以实现整体利益最大化或增值为目标,同时也要保障农民生产活动的顺利展开,依据这独特特性明确了化肥供应链的概念。提出化肥供应链是为保障农民生产活动的顺利开展,围绕某一核心企业,由原材料供应商开始,将化肥从生产商、批发商、零售商直至递交给农户手中的由若干链段组成的功能性网链结构模式。
(2)对我国化肥供应链进行了系统研究。提出随着我国流通管理体制的演变,化肥供应链管理模式由推动型供应链变为推一拉混合型供应链；目前化肥供应链主要流通渠道有供销社农资系统、农技系统、化肥企业、民营及个体经营者；化肥供应链具有层级深、结构发散、活动强度具有季节性、空间不平衡性及信息化水平较低等特性。
(3)建立了化肥供应链复杂适应系统模型。以供应链管理理论为业务基础,以化肥与农业经济相关理论为现实依据,以复杂适应系统理论为系统指导思想,构建了以化肥生产商主体类、化肥销售商主体类、用户主体类为主的,涵盖了原材料供应商主体类、服务提供商主体类、政府主体类和环境主体类在内的化肥供应链复杂适应系统模型。
(4)对化肥供应链的适应性展开了分析。适应性是化肥供应链主体的最基本特性,也是化肥供应链复杂性的根源。本文认为化肥供应链主体适应性的作用主要在于：完善主体自身结构、有效控制化肥供应链的初值敏感性、促进化肥供应链有序结构的形成；化肥供应链主体对于环境的适应性强弱主要受四个因素影响：主体对环境的感知能力、主体规则集容量、主体规则组合能力以及主体间流的畅通程度等,具体体现在市场环境适应性、管理环境适应性、物流环境适应性和信息环境适应性等四个方面；主体适应性的根源来自于化肥供应链的开放性、规模性、层次性、自组织性、不确定性以及非对称性；而主体的适应性结果则造就了化肥供应链的涌现现象。
(5)构建了化肥供应链适应性复合评价模型。在科学性、单调性、非相关性、可行性、普适性等原则的指导下,从市场环境适应性、管理环境适应性、物流环境适应性以及信息环境适应性等四个方面入手,建立了化肥供应链适应性评价指标体系。结合具体研究对象,构建了基于C2R模型、C2GS2模型、邓氏灰色关联分析模型的化肥供应链适应性复合评价模型。
(6)进行了化肥供应链适应性评价实证研究。针对化肥供应链A的市场环境适应性评价展开了实证研究,并在此基础上,提出保持较稳定的投入要素比例,维持较为均衡的产出要素规模,是提高化肥供应链适应性的改进方向之一。
通过以上研究工作,为企业微观调整、政府宏观调控以提升化肥供应链适应性提供了参考依据。
China is a large agricultural country and agriculture production is very important for it to guarantee the people's lives. As an important agricultural productive material, fertilizer plays a significant role in guarantee agriculture sustainable development and food safety. With the management system of fertilizer changes from strict planned management system to market-oriented management system, fertilizer market becomes increasingly competitive. Fertilizer industry in China needs urgently the introduction of modern management thoughts to improve the competitiveness of the industry.
Supply chain management is a hot issue concerned by both the academia and the business circles in recent years. At present, results of systematic research on production, circulation and consumption of fertilizer from the perspective of supply chain management are relatively few. Fertilizer enterprises are increasingly aware of the necessity to be part of the supply chain to compete. Face the fierce market competition, the adaptability to environments of fertilizer supply chain is very important. Aimed at the current research status, this dissertation comprehensivly uses the logistics system theory, supply chain management, extension theory, complex system thinking, complex adaptive system theory and operation research theory to deploy the research on fertilizer supply chain and its adaptability. The main research contents and results of the dissertation are as follows:
ⅠThe concept of fertilizer supply chain is clearly put forward. On the basis of analysis of agricultural supply chain research status, according to the unique features of fertilizer that it is not olny to achieve the overall goal or value-added benefits around the core enterprise in supply chain, but also to guarantee the smooth functioning of agricultural production, this dissertation put forward the concept of fertilizer supply chain. Fertilizer supply chain is a functional network chain structure model consists of several chains around a core enterprise, starting from the raw material suppliers, to manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers until to deliver fertilizer to farmers, to guarantee the smooth functioning of agricultural production activities.
ⅡChina's fertilizer supply chain have been analyzed systemically. With the evolvement of China's circulation management system, fertilizer supply chain management model has changed from pushing supply chain to pushing-pulling supply chain. Currently the main distribution channels of fertilizer supply chain are supply and marketing agricultural system, agricultural technology system, fertilizer enterprises, private and individual business operators. There are such characteristics of fertilizer supply chain as deep levels, emanative structure, seasonal activity intensity, spatial imbalances and the low level of informization.
III Complex system model of fertilizer supply chain is established. On the operation foundation of supply chain management theory, on the realistic basis of fertilizer and agriculture economy theory, under the guidance of complex adaptive system theory, the complex system model of fertilizer supply chain is established, which consists of fertilizer manufacturer agent class, fertilizer sellers agent class, the user agent class, and includes the raw material suppliers agent class, service providers agent class, government agent class and the environment agent class.
ⅣAdaptability of fertilizer supply chain is analyzed. Adaptability is the most basic characteristic of fertilizer supply chain agent, and it's also the source of fertilizer supply chain's complexity. The main functions of fertilizer supply chain agent adaptability are as follows, improving the agent's own structure, controlling the initial sensitivity of fertilizer supply chain effectively, promoting the formation of ordered structures of fertilizer supply chain. The adaptability of fertilizer supply chain to the environment mainly comes from such four influence factors, agent's perception of the environment, the capacity of agent's rules set, the ability of agent's combination of rules and the smooth flow between agents, and reflects on such four aspects, the adaptability to the market environment, the adaptability to the management environment, the adaptability to the logistics environment and the adaptability to the information environment. The root of agent's adaptability is from the openness, scale, hierarchy, self-organization, uncertainty and non-symmetry of fertilizer supply chain, and the results of agent's adaptability lead to the emergence phenomenon of fertilizer supply chain.
V The composite evaluation model of fertilizer supply chain's adaptability is established. Under the guiding principles of scientific, monotone, non-relative, feasible and universal, the evaluation index system of fertilizer supply chain's adaptability is given from such aspects as the adaptability to the market environment, the adaptability to the management environment, the adaptability to the logistics environment and the adaptability to the information environment. Combined with the specific research object, the composite evaluation model of fertilizer supply chain's adaptability is established based on C2R model, C2GS2 model and Deng's grey relational analysis model.
VI Demonstration of fertilizer supply chain's adaptability evaluation is studied. Empirical research on fertilizer supply chain A's adaptability to the market environment is carried out, and on this basis, such a point of view is put forward that to maintain a stable ratio of input factors and to maintain a balanced scale of output factors, is an improving direction to promote the adaptability of fertilizer supply chain.
Through the above research work, this dissertation provides references for enterprises' micro-adjustment and for government's macro regulation to enhance the adaptability of the fertilizer supply chain.
There are 55 figures and 32 tables in this dissertation, and 188 references are refered to.
引文
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