摘要
近二三十年以来,许多国家或地区的资产市场如股票市场、房地产市场等发展迅猛,市场规模日益扩大,对国民经济的影响也日益显著。20世纪80年代日本股市、房市泡沫破灭以及2008年美国房地产市场萎靡引发的金融海啸,对本国及全球经济都造成了较深远的影响,使得各国货币当局在关注传统货币政策传导渠道如利率渠道、信贷渠道、汇率渠道之外,也日益重视货币政策资产价格传导渠道对货币政策传导效应的影响。
由于各国研究者从各自不同的时空背景出发,以及按照不同的假设和前提对货币政策的资产价格传导效应进行研究,使得研究的结论和提出的政策建议并不完全相同,甚至是截然相反的观点。为此,在目前资产市场快速发展的大背景下,结合我国国情,对货币政策的资产价格传导渠道及传导效应进行研究具有很强的时代背景。
对于我国来说,房地产市场无疑是对国民经济影响最大、与人民生活最息息相关的资产市场。自1998年实施住房商品化改革后,在各项相关政策的扶持之下,我国房地产市场也呈现出迅猛发展的势头,尤其是2000年之后,房地产交易额年均增速达27%,房地产投资年均增速达25%。在许多地区,房地产业已成为当地经济发展的支柱性产业。然而,在房地产市场快速发展的同时,房地产价格出现了暴涨现象,这给社会经济发展带来较大的负面影响。尽管自2003年以来,中央出台了一系列紧缩性的货币政策,对房地产市场进行了调控,但房地产价格仍然高位运行,甚至货币政策一旦略有放松,便出现报复性的上涨现象,使得货币政策的有效性受到了质疑。
基于上述考虑,本文以我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应作为研究内容,重点分析货币政策如何影响房地产价格,房地产价格波动又如何影响投资、消费等,具有一定的理论与现实意义。这既可以丰富我国货币政策传导效应的理论内容,也可以为我国房地产市场持续繁荣、国民经济稳定发展提供一些政策建议。为有效探讨我国货币政策房地产价格传导效应所涉及的相关问题,本文分三大部分进行论述。
首先是提出问题。介绍本文的研究背景、研究意义以及中外研究现状,进而提出本文所要研究的重点以及要解决的相关问题。
接着是分析问题。第一步是对我国货币政策的房地产价格传导渠道以及其中各个环节的传导效应进行理论分析,主要是分析货币政策如何影响房地产价格以及房地产价格价格波动如何影响投资、消费等；第二步是在理论分析的基础上通过构建模型,对货币政策房地产价格传导效应进行实证分析,并对东中西部地区的传导差异进行实证比较；第三步是将实证分析(包括区域效应实证)的结果与理论传导效应进行比对,寻找我国货币政策房地产价格传导渠道存在的障碍因素,并就其形成原因进行深入分析。
最后是解决问题,针对上述分析结果,对运用和完善我国货币政策的房地产价格传导渠道方面提出一些政策建议。
全文共分八章,主要内容安排如下：
第一章是导论。本章主要介绍本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究现状、研究方法以及创新点与不足。
第二章是文献述评。本章主要梳理总结国内外相关研究文献,对货币政策资产价格传导效应的一般理论以及我国房地产价格传导效应的实证研究进行梳理和述评,归纳比较现有研究文献在理论研究和实证研究方面的最新状况、总结其各自的特点,并在此基础上进一步明确本文所要解决的问题以及研究的重点内容。
第三章是我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应理论分析。本章主要是从理论角度分析房地产价格传导效应：第一个环节,我国货币政策对房地产市场价格的传导；第二个环节,房地产价格波动对投资、消费、进出口的影响。
第四章是我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应实证分析。本章主要是利用1998年3月-2011年12月份的月度数据,通过构建模型,运用时间序列分析方法,对我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应进行实证分析。
第五章是我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应区域比较。本章主要是从区域的角度分析我国货币政策房地产价格传导效应在东中西部地区表现出的实际差异。
第六章是我国货币政策房地产价格传导渠道的障碍因素。本章重点分析传导渠道在哪些方面存在障碍因素,并解释出现传导不畅现象的原因。
第七章是政策建议。本章结合三、四、五、六章的理论分析和实证结论以及我国的国情,对运用和完善我国货币政策房地产价格传导渠道方面提供一些政策建议。
第八章是全文总结。
Since last two or three decades, stock, real estate and other asset markets have developed rapidly in many countries and regions. The increased sizes of the markets have a strengthened influence on national economy. The bubble burst of the stock and real estate markets in Japan in1980s, together with the financial tsunami caused by American real estate market in2008make the national currency authorities worldwide not only to concern on the traditional monetary policy transmission channels such as interest rate channel, credit channel and exchange rate channel, but also pay more attention to the influence that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy asset prices to the effect of the monetary policy transmission.
Currently, due to these researches and debates which are following their different hypothesis and premises, and providing policy recommendations that are not identical and sometimes incorporate with totally different views from different space-time background in different countries, all of these result in so many surprising research achievements of this filed. Therefore, with current rapid development of the capital markets, it has a strong significance of times background to study the transmission mechanism of China's currency policy asset prices and its conductive effect.
Since the housing commercialization reform in1998, with the support of the related policies, real estate market in China has showing a rapid development momentum. Especially after2000, real estate investment grows at an annual average rate of25%and the real estate transactions grows at an average rate of27%, up from the357.2billion in2000to5911.9billion in2011. In many areas, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the local economic development. However, with the fast development of the real estate market, the housing prices soared simultaneously. This also brought negative influence on society. Although since2003, the central government has issued a series of tighter monetary policy, the housing prices still run in a high level. Even a modest loosening monetary policy will result in a rise in reprisal phenomenon, this makes the validity of monetary policy being questioned.
Base on the above consideration, this paper takes our country's monetary policy real estate price transmission effect as the research content, focus on analysis of how t he monetary policy affect the price of real estate, and how the real estate price affect t he investment,consumption etc, it has certain theoretical and practical significance. It not only can enrich monetary policy transmission effect theory of our country, but als o can provide some policy recommendations on national real estate market healthy de velopment and continuously stabilized economy growth.
In order to achieve the effective discussion on the content of monetary policy real estate price transmission effect; this paper is divided into three parts. At the begin ning,It raises the question, introduce the background of the monetary policy real estat e price transmission effect and research significance as well as the status of Chinese a nd foreign research, consequently, Advance the research significance and the problem s need to be solved of this paper.
Then analyzing the problem.Firstly, it analyzes the mechanism of our country mo netary policy real estate price transmission effect and construes the each link transmis sion effect. Mainly focus on the analysis of how the monetary policy affects the price of real estate, and how the real estate price affects the investment, consumption. Seco ndly, Base on the theoretical analysis, through constructing the model, Construe the e mpirical analysis of the monetary policy-real estate price transmission effect as well as compare and contrast the different conduction among east, central and west regions. Furthermore, through the comparison between empirical analysis results (including t he regional empirical analysis) and theoretical effect, further analysis the existing pro blems in the China's monetary policy-real estate price transmission mechanism and th e formation causes.
Lastly, according to the analysis results above, solve the problem and puts forwa rd some policy suggestions on the application and improve the China's monetary polic y transmission mechanism.
This paper contains eight chapters, main contents as follows:
The first chapter is introduction; it mainly introduces the research background and significance, research situation at home and abroad, research methods and logic, and innovative points and shortages.
The second chapter is the literature review, it mainly reviews related research literature, evaluates the basic theory transfer effect of monetary policy to asset prices and our country's housing price transmission effect, summarizes and compares the existing literature theory, method and data, and sums up the characteristics. Furthermore, this paper clarifies the research points and problems based on these characteristics.
The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of China's monetary policy housing price mechanism from a theoretical perspective. The first part is the transmission of our country's currency policy to housing prices. The second part is the influence of real estate prices on investment and consumption.
The chapter four is the empirical analysis of China's monetary policy housing prices mechanism, based on the latest sample data, it mainly utilizes time series analysis method, VAR model, VEC model, GRANGER model to analyze'our monetary policy transmission effect of house prices.
The chapter five is the comparison of the regional effects caused by China's monetary policy housing prices. From the perspective of regional areas, this chapter analyzes how this monetary policy of transmission mechanism conducted and how to find the regional differences.
The chapter six is the restriction factor analysis of China's monetary policy housing price mechanism. This chapter mainly analyzes the factors that restrict the transmission mechanism and provides the reasons of generating the impeded transmission.
The chapter seven is the policy suggestions. Combined with theoretical and empirical analysis of the chapter three, four, five, six and seven, and China's actual conditions to provide some suggestions to adopt and implement monetary policy, the real estate market regulation policy and its price transmission mechanism.
The chapter eight is the summary of the full paper.
引文
1 Bloomberg资讯、Wind资讯。
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5数据来源：国家统计局。
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Mishkin, F. S. The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in MonetaryPolicy,. NBER Working Paper,2001, (3):58-71.
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35刘明、刘斌.利率调控房价的效应分析[J].上海金融,2005,11：14-16.
36李雅静、杨毅.利率和货币供应量对我国房地产投资的影响[J].西安财经学院学报,2005,(5)：47-51.
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38郭科.我国货币政策影响房地产价格的实证分析[J].济南金融,2006,23(7)：12-16.
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6 Chami, R. Comsimano, T. F., Fullenkamp, C. The Stock Market Channel of Monetary Policy [R]. IMF Working Paper,1999, (22):135-150.
7 Shleifer, M. R., Vishny, A. R. W. The Stock Market and Investment:Is the Market a Sideshow? [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1990, (2):157-202.
8易刚、王召.货币政策与金融资产价格[J].经济研究,2002,(3).
9何国华、黄明皓.开放条件下货币政策的资产价格传导机制研究[J].世界经济究,2009,(2).
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37李雅静、杨毅.利率和货币供应量对我国房地产投资的影响[J].西安财经学院学报,2005,(5)：47-51.
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