摘要
本论文在调查和采集郑州市普通商品住宅价格以及相关地理要素的基础上,采用文献研究与理论分析相结合以及实证研究的方法,以商品住宅楼盘均价为研究对象,利用ArcGIS软件为基础平台,辅以统计分析软件、关系数据库软件、GeoDA、SPSS等软件对郑州市住宅房地产价格进行了探索性的空间数据分析,对郑州市商品住宅价格的时空分布规律进行了研究；对郑州市房价的空间影响因子进行了宏观分析,对影响楼盘价格的外部因素建立了特征价格模型,进一步量化了外部因素的影响程度；同时,由于商品住宅价格符合计量经济学中时间序列的有关特征,通过分析,建立了郑州市商品住宅价格的时间序列分析和预测模型,并利用所收集到的有关价格数据进行了验证,证明了本预测模型的正确性。
On the basis of the investigation and acquisition of ordinary commercial housing prices in Zhengzhou and related geographical factors, the thesis makes the exploratory spatial data analysis on commercial housing price; studies the spatial-temporal distribution of commercial housing prices, and makes the macro analysis and study of influencing factors on the housing prices in Zhengzhou, adopting the method which combines the Literature study, theoretical analysis and empirical research, using ArcGIS software-based platform, combined with statistical analysis software, relational database software, GeoDA, SPSS software. The thesis studies the commercial residential real estate prices, establishes the hedonic price mode on the external factors affecting real estate prices, and further quantifies the extent of the impact of external factors. Meanwhile, as the commercial housing price accords with the relevant characteristics of the econometric time series, the thesis establishes the time series analysis and a prediction model of the commodity houses price in Zhengzhou, verifies the collected price data, and then proves the correctness of the prediction model through analysis.
引文
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