摘要
随着人类活动对环境的影响,人口、资源与环境问题日益突出,由此引起的土地利用变化备受人们关注。我国是人口大国,人多地少的矛盾特别突出,并已成为经济发展的瓶颈。因此,如何利用数学模型来定量研究区域土地利用的时空变化,对土地利用格局进行分析,发现土地利用格局变化的驱动因素,以便正确认识和处理经济发展与耕地保护的关系,促进区域土地资源可持续利用就显得尤为重要。
基于RS、GIS技术及土地利用变化的分析方法,本文对一个较大的县级市在14年内土地利用的变化情况进行了研究,分析出影响土地利用变化的驱动力。其研究的主要内容及结论如下:
1.采用遥感及GIS技术,获取平度市土地利用的现状及动态变化信息。通过遥感图像的目视解译、专题地图的数字化、属性数据的输入、成果图的输出、空间数据拓扑关系的建立、矢量数据的修改编辑等工作,建立了平度市土地利用现状数据库。通过GIG对土地利用图的空间分析,结合统计资料,将属性数据和空间数据链接,建立起区域土地利用动态变化数据库。
2.利用多种模型与指数分析了平度市1990～2004年土地利用的时空演变特征。采用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用程度时空演变模型、土地利用类型转换矩阵模型等研究了该市土地利用的时间演变特征。选取景观多样性指数、优势度指数、均匀度指数以及破碎度指数等景观指数,分析研究平度市土地利用景观格局的空间演变过程。研究结果表明:耕地、林地、其它农业用地和未利用土地和面积总量减少,园地和独立工矿与城乡居住用地面积总量增加;景观格局的多样性指数增加、均匀度指数增加而优势度指数下降。
3.基于典型相关分析方法对平度市土地利用格局的形成及演变的驱动力进行了研究。借助统计软件STATISTICA的典型相关分析方法,选取与自然和经济相关的变量,探求平度市土地利用格局及格局变化的驱动因素,分析结果表明:经济发展是平度市土地利用格局形成及演变的主要因素。
4.应用马尔科夫链模型对平度市的土地利用未来变化进行了预测。预测结果显示:耕地面积比例逐渐减少,独立工矿与居住建设用地比例继续增加。这种趋势与现实中的经济发展要求是吻合的。
As the human activity has more effect on environment, the problem of population, resources and environment becomes more and more serious, and the change of land use caused by that is being given more attention. China is a country with a large population, the contradiction between population and land area is to be dissolved urgently, and which has become the bottle neck of economic development. So it is important to evaluate the spatio-temporal change of land use by mathematic model, to analyze the land use pattern, to find the driving factors of land use change, then we can accurately understand and handle the relationship of economic development and preservation of tillable land, and promote the regional land source to be utilizing sustainable.
Based on data obtaining function of RS, data analysis function of GIS and the analysis method of land use change, this paper analyses the land use change of a bigger county in 14 years, and presents the various driving force affecting land use change. The study process, analysis methods and the main conclusions are as following:
1. Applying RS data and GIS technique, we obtain the actual information of land use, and the vector database is formed by contact interpretation of RS image, digital of special map, input of attribute data, output of outcome map, establishing of topological relationship of spatial data and the editing of vector data, etc. The land use dynamic change databases have been set up by spatial analysis of land use map, combination of statistic data and linking of attribute data and spatial data.
2. The spatio-temporal change characteristics of land use of Pingdu County during 1990～2004 have been researched by some models and index. Some mathematic models are used to analyze the spatio-temporal change of land use of this County, such as land use dynamic degree model, land use spatio-temporal evolution model and land use transferring matrix model. The spatio-temporal change characteristics of land use of Pingdu County during 1990～2004 have been researched by many models and indexes. Many index have been chosen to analyze the spatial change and its evolution of landscape pattern, such as landscape diversity index, dominant index, evenness index and fragment index. The analysis result shows that the area of tillable land, woodland, other agriculture land and unused land have been decreased; the area of garden land, residential land and industrial land have been increased, the landscape diversity index and evenness index have increased, and the dominant index has decreased.
3. Based on canonical correlative analysis method, the land use pattern and driving force of land use pattern change of Pingdu County have been researched. Applying the canonical correlative analysis model of statistical software—STATISTICA, selecting some variants related to nature and economics, and to pursue the driving forces of present land use pattern and the change of land use pattern. The results indicate that it is mainly the economic development that caused the change of land use pattern.
4. Prediction of the land use structure of Pingdu County has been carried out with the Markov chain model. The prediction shows that the ratio of tillable land is gradually decreasing, and the ratio of the residential land and industrial land is increasing. The results coincide with the economic development's demands.
引文
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