摘要
大型购物中心一直以来都是人员与财富集中的区域,一旦失火,很可能造成大量的财产损失与人员伤亡。当前火灾风险评估方法要么是基于定性描述或半定量打分形式,要么是侧重于随机性模型一方面,要么是单从确定性模型一方面入手解决火灾风险问题。很少将确定性模型与随机性模型统一进行考虑,故需要将火灾动力学与统计概率规律结合起来,实现对建筑火灾风险定量评估。本文正是基于此观点,将围绕确定性模型与随机性模型展开研究,建立大型购物中心这一典型建筑的火灾风险评价模式。
本论文阐述的定量火灾风险评价模式分为两部分:第一部分为性能化防火分析,在确定保护目标的前提上,从建筑结构形式,设计火源,防排烟原理,人员安全疏散以及火灾条件下建筑结构耐火防护等角度阐述如何辨识,分析,评价以及控制火灾危险源,同时制定设计方案以及确定在该火灾场景下火灾事件发生顺序。第二部分为基于性能化防火分析结论的风险分析,依据第一部分结论与所收集的消防系统可靠性的火灾统计数据来构建火灾风险事件树,从而确定由于消防系统不可靠性所导致的火灾风险。结合相关风险评价准则,区分可接受火灾场景与不可接受火灾场景。调整性能化设计方案,以期在消防系统布局上最大程度降低火灾风险,如果某些火灾场景的风险仍不可接受,利用事故树评价不同消防系统失效对顶上事件影响大小并分析其失效原因,采取有效措施以期将整体风险降低到可接受水平。
最后,以某大型购物中心为例,根据论文总结的评价模式对该购物中心进行定量火灾风险分析,实现消防系统有效性与经济性的统一。
The large shopping complex has been always considered as the concentration cite of property and life occupant. Once catch fire, it’s very likely to threaten the life of the occupant and the property. The current solutions of fire risk assessment are mainly executed by qualitative description, semi-quantitative scoring etc. The whole methodology is either probabilistic model or deterministic model. It’s seldom analyzed by the combination of them to solve the fire risk problems. Thus, it’s required to solve the building fire risk problem by combining the fire dynamics and the discipline of statistics probability urgently. Based on this perspective, this thesis described how to realize the integration of the two models and how to build the quantitative fire risk assessment model on the large shopping complex.
The quantitative fire risk model is consisted of two parts: the first part is referred as performance-based analysis, which is illustrated how to identify, analyze, evaluate and control the fire hazard as well as providing the performance-based solution and determining the occurring sequence of fire events. The second part is referred as risk analysis reformed on the discipline of statistics probability, which is summarized how to combine the conclusion of the first model with the existing collected fire statistical data to set up the fire risk event tree, in order that determining the fire scenarios due to the unreliability of the fire protection systems. Thus compare to the related fire risk acceptable guidelines to distinguish the accepted fire scenarios to the unaccepted ones. Refine the performance-based strategy in order to reduce the fire risk as low as reasonably practicable in the design stage. If any scenario is unacceptable either, utilizing the fault tree to analyze and evaluate the importance of the fire protection system and summarize the reasons which can result in the unreliability and ineffective, make the decision to reduce the whole fire risk to the acceptable level.
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