摘要
哈罗德模型对于宏观经济学的发展起到了关键作用,哈罗德模型中的两个基本问题,“非平衡经济增长”问题与“刃峰均衡”问题,更是引发了经济学家的思考,至今仍在讨论。现代宏观经济学许多发轫之作都是建立在破解哈罗德模型的两个难题、解释哈罗德模型中一些经济现象的基础上,其中最著名的工作是索洛模型。其原因是,哈罗德模型中的两个难题描述了宏观经济系统中一些无法回避的基本特征,例如,“非平衡经济增长”问题揭示了产品市场或者资本市场的稳定状态与劳动力市场的稳定状态之间的不一致性,“刃峰均衡”问题揭示了宏观经济系统的不稳定性。虽然经济学家已经尝试了各种工作对于哈罗德模型中的两个基本问题进行破解,但是他们或者改变了哈罗德模型的基本假设与结构,或者不能完全破解哈罗德模型的两个问题,使得破解工作留下了不足。
本文的主要工作是在坚持凯恩斯-哈罗德假设的前提下,即坚持价格进行粘性调整,产量由需求一方来决定的假设,针对哈罗德模型两个难题进行现代表述以及破解工作,并且建立一个能够反映中国现实经济的完整的哈罗德模型。在破解“非平衡经济增长”问题方面,本文细致的刻画了劳动力市场上的动态变化,引入了就业率与投资率之间的关系,发现它们是可以同时达到稳定状态的,这样就消除了它们之间的不一致性,此时,经济达到了“平衡增长路径”。另外,本文引入了价格和工资的动态方程,并把它们作为稳定机制引入宏观经济系统之中,增强了宏观经济系统的稳定性,破解了“刃峰均衡”问题。值得注意的是,本文所使用的行为方程都是有微观基础的。
通过考察现实经济现象可以发现,发展中国家相比发达国家来说,更加符合哈罗德模型所描述的经济特征。发展中国家的基本经济特征可以被总结为二元机经济。在二元经济中,现代的生产部门与落后的生产部门是并存的。在劳动力由落后部门向先进部门转移的过程中,对先进部门形成了无限制的劳动供给。发展中国家进入赶超过程,开始经济起飞的初始条件都是与这个基本特征紧密相关的。在二元经济存在的时间内,市场必定是不出清的。在市场非出清的条件下,价格是粘性调整的,而不是灵活调整。因此,以市场出清为基础的经济学理论显然忽略了发展中国家经济的这些特点。但是这却是凯恩斯-哈罗德模型的基本假设,所以这正是哈罗德模型更加能够反映发展中国家的经济现实的原因。
本文针对发展中国家的经济特征,尤其是中国的经济特征,建立一个的哈罗德模型,用以解释其经济发展规律,预测其经济发展趋势。具体来说,本文主要分析内需结构的演变规律,其中还包括从功能性收入分配的角度来考察工资性收入占国民收入比例的演变规律。可以想象,由于经济体内存在无限的劳动力供给,那么工资率将会维持在较低水平,此时经济发展的主要成果由利润所得,其表现形式就是工资性收入占国民收入的比例不断下降,由于工资性收入是支撑消费的主要力量,这也必将导致消费占GDP的比重不断下降,而投资占GDP的比例不断上升。从现实经济来看,就是中国当代经济正在面临的收入分配恶化,消费不足,投资过剩等经济特点。随着经济的发展,剩余劳动力消失,工资率对劳动力市场上的供求关系恢复敏感性,工资性收入占国民收入的比例就会上升,收入分配差距就会减少,消费占GDP的比例就会随之上升,投资占GDP的比例也会逐步下降。通过模型的模拟分析,证实如上结论,即一个哈罗德模型不但解释了需求的结构性变化,也从功能性收入分配的角度解释了Kuznets曲线。总结来说,就是随着经济的发展,工资性收入占国民收入的比例以及消费占GDP的比例会出现先下降后上升的现象,呈现正U型,投资占GDP的比例会出现先上升后下降的现象,呈现倒U型。
Harrod model plays a key role in the developing process of macroeconomics. Up to now, economists ponder over and discuss two basic puzzles in Harrod Model, namely Unbalanced Economic Growth puzzle and Knife Edge problem. Plenty of original benchmark models in modern macroeconomics are built to solve these two puzzles in Harrod model or to describe some phenomena in Harrod model, in which the most famous work is Solow Model. The reason is that some unavoidable basic features are presented in Harrod model. For an example, Unbalanced Economic Growth puzzle discloses the inconsistency between the steady state in commodity market or capital market and labor market while Knife Edge problem discloses the instability in macroeconomic system. Although economists have tried many kinds of methods to solve the basic puzzles in Harrod model, they either changed the foundamental assumption or structures of Harrod model or cannot solve these two basic puzzles completely, which leave much room for further exploration.
The main work of this paper is to reexpress and sovle these two basic puzzles in Harrod model, and then build a complete Harrod model to reflect China economy under Keynesian-Harrodian assumptions which are price is sticky and output is decided by demand side. For solving Unbalanced Economic Growth puzzle, dynamics in labor market are descriped detailedly in this paper. After the relationship between employment rate and investment rate are introduced to our model, we can find that they can reach the steady state at the same time. Therefore, the inconsistency between employment rate and investment rate is eliminated. As a result, the economy is in a balanced growth path. Additionally, as the stability mechanism, price function and wage function are introduced into our model in this paper to enhance the stability of macroeconomic system. Therefore, Knife Edge problem can be solved. It is worthy to note that all behaviour functions used by our paper have microfoundations.
In view of economic reality, we can find that developing countries are more suitable to Harrod model, compared with developed countries. The main economic feature of developing countries is concluded as dual economy in which the modern department and backward department coexist. During the process of labor transision from backward department to modern department, labor supply is unlimited for modern department. The initial conditions for the fact that the economy in developing countries is catching up with and even surpassing that in developed countries have some relationship with this main feature. When dual economy exists, markets are not clearing. If markets are not clearing, price will be sticky, rather than fully elastic. Therefore, it is easy to know that those economic theories based on clearing markets neglect the main feature of developing countries. However, this is Keynesian-Harrodian assumption, which is the reason why developing countries are more suitable to Harrod model than developed countries.
In the view of economic features of developing countries, especially those in China, a Harrod model is built in this paper to explain the law of economic development and forecast the trend of economic development. Specificly speaking, the law of structures of domestic demand evolution is analyzed in this paper, in eluding the law of wage share in national income evolution from the view of functional income distribution. It can be imagined that wage rate stay in the low level because of the umlimited labor supply in economy. At this time, the achievement of economic development is transformed to profit. The manifestation is that wage share declines. Because wage income is the main power for consumption, consumption share in GDP will decline, too. Meanwhile, investment share in GDP will rise. In view of economic reality, these phenomena are the problems faced by China, such as the worsening income distribution, consumption insufficiency and surplus investment. As the economy develops, surplus labor supply will disappear, and wage rate will be sensitive to change in demand or supply in labor market. As a result, wage share will rise, income distribution will be improved, consumption share in GDP will also rise and investment share in GDP will decline step by step. All the above conclusions can be proved by our model in this paper. That is to say, Harrod model not only explain the structure development of demand but also reexplain Kuznets Curve from the perspective of functional income distribution. All in all, as the economy develops, wage share in national income and consumption share in GDP will decline and then rise, which is a U shape, while investment share in GDP will rise and then decline, which is a inverted U shape.
引文
2参见Freedman(1953)对于实证分析的介绍。
3林毅夫(2001)提出的经济学规范研究方法包含的一个主要方面就是逻辑推理和经验事实的一致性,所以也属于逻辑实证主义。
4参看哈罗德(1973)《动态经济学》第一章标题：“需要有一个动态经济学”。
5这8项分别为：“(1)乡镇企业就业人员；(2)私营企业就业人员；(3)城镇个体劳动者；(4)离休、退休、退职人员；(5)再就业的离、退休人员；(6)民办教师；(7)在城镇单位中工作的外方及港、澳、台人员；(8)其他按有关规定不列入职工统计范围的人员”,引自中国统计年鉴,2008版。
6例如,黄范章认为哈罗德“早自三十年代起就追随凯恩斯”,引自《动态经济学》中“评哈罗德的《动态经济学》”第i页,商务印书馆,2003年。
7例如,Harrod(1960)认为自己模型在思想上来源于凯恩斯主义经济学："The Keynesian origin of this idea is obvious." cited from "Second Essay in Dynamic Theory" in the Economic Journal in 1960.
8多马称之为投资的二重性。见黄范章,1980：评哈罗德的《动态经济学》,世界经济,第6期。
9指新古典经济学尤其是索洛模型。
10哈罗德著,黄范章译,1973：《动态经济学》,商务印书馆,2003年版,第2页。
11哈罗德著,黄范章译,1973：《动态经济学》,商务印书馆,2003年版,第16页。
12哈罗德著,黄范章译,1973：《动态经济学》,商务印书馆,2003年版,第16页,第三章标题。
13与龚刚(2009)基本相同。
14 Kaldor(1961)通过对发达国家自工业化开始的数据考察,得出如下关于经济增长的基本事实。1)总产量和劳动生产力的持续增长,而且其增长率无下降的趋势；2)人均资本的持续增长；3)平稳的资本回报率,且大于长期利率；4)资本与产量比长期内处于平稳；5)利润在收入中所占比例和投资在总产量中所占比例居有高度相关,且资本报酬和劳动力报酬在总收入中所占比例长期平稳。Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995)进行了相似的研究,并得出了除第三点之外大致相同的结果。
15哈罗德著,黄范章译,1973：《动态经济学》,商务印书馆,2003年版,第5页。
16指Yoshidar 1999)的模型中包含了需求因素,即含有设备利用率等经济学概念。
17U'(1)=θ
21这个问题的完整证明由Arrow, Debreu(1954)给出。
22可以参看Nell(1980)
23参看Calvo(1983),一部分卖家把价格调整到最优价格,而另一部分卖家维持原有价格。
24例如龚刚(2007,2008)
25 Gould(1969)对这类调整模式的具体形式进行过讨论,详见Gould, J.P., "The use of Endogenous Variables in Dynamic Models of Investment", Quarterly Journal of Economic, November 1969, pp.580-599.
26见蒋中一(著),王永宏(译),秦宛顺(校),《动态最优化基础》,2003年,商务印书馆,128页。
27为了保证稳定状态的存在,单位调整成本函数S(·)被假定为S(1)=S'(1)=0,S″(1)>0的形式。
29具体介绍见本章第四节。
30见第八章。
31详细介绍参看龚刚(2007)。
32参看龚刚(2007)。
33参见第六章第二节
38这一个问题将在第九章中详细分析。
39这与龚刚、林毅夫(2007)采用年度数据对本模型进行的估价有所不同。
40鲁克波尔,克莱茨希著,易行健,邓可斌等译,2008：《应用时间序列：计量经济学》,机械工业出版社,第3页。
41因为中国的季节因素和现在通行的方法有着重大的差别
42龚刚、林毅夫(2007)在其利用年度数据的估计中也得到了相似的结论。
43详见图5.3。
44把xt视为外生变量模型的滞后期为5,把xt视为内生变量模型的滞后期为4。
45都是在最大迭代量5000,允许失败2%的情况下,在1000次内迭代到与真实值相差0.00000001之内。并且与直接计算的结果一致。
46“低位估计为1亿-1.5亿人(吴敬琏,2001)；中位估计为2亿(陈剑光,2000)-2.5亿人(张忠法等,2000)；高位估计为4亿-5亿人(温铁军,2001)”,引自王凤云《对目前我国农村剩余劳动力数量的估计》(2002)
47 http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/hgjj/20090805/17006575593.shtml
49数据来自于国家统计局(2008)。这里,我们需要说明两点。第一,数据在1988年突然出现大幅度下降,其原因有待进一步探讨。第二,按照国家统计局的说明,这里的工资总额除去不包含农业收入外,还不包含如下的情形：“(1)乡镇企业就业人员；(2)私营企业就业人员；(3)城镇个体劳动者；(4)离休、退休、退职人员；(5)再就业的离、退休人员；(6)民办教师；(7)在城镇单位中工作的外方及港、澳、台人员；(8)其他按有关规定不列入职工统计范围的人员。”因此,它占各种国民收入的比例都是偏低的。但我们仍然可以看到其不断下降地趋势。
50我国农村基尼系数的数据整理自World Income Inequality Database (WIID数据库),它的网址是：http://www.wider.unu.edu/research/Database/en GB/wiid/.这里需要说明的是：第一,由于2001年的数据缺失,所以基尼系数序列在2001年处有断点,第二,WIID数据库对于中国的农村基尼系数只公布到了2003年。
51《政治经济学及赋税原理》,收录在《李嘉图著作和通信集》第一卷。商务印书馆,1981年版,第7页。
52 Kaldor(1961)总结的经济增长的六个基本特征事实是：1)总产量和劳动生产力的持续增长,而且其增长率无下降的趋势；2)人均资本的持续增长；3)平稳的资本回报率,且大于长期利率；4)资本与产量比长期内处于平稳：5)利润在收入中所占比例和投资在总产量中所占比例居有高度相关,且资本报酬和劳动力报酬在总收入中所占比例长期平稳。6)国别之间的人均产出增长率差异很大。
53这其中包括Denison(1974), Christensen, Cummings和Jorgenson(1980), Jorgenson、 Gollop和Fraumeni(1987), Dougherty(1991), Young(1995), Kyyra 和 Maliranta(2006), Feldstein(2007)等。
54这其中包括Koray(1989), Siddiqui 和 Iqbal(2001), Joseph 和 Dipendra(1999), Stockhammer, Onaran和Ederer(2007)以及Stockhammer(2009)等。
55这其中包括Blanchard和Giavazzi(2003), Kalleberg, Wallace和Raffalovich (1984)以及Henley (1987)。
56这其中包括Diwan(1999)以及Giammarioli, Messina, Steinberger和Strozzi(2002)。
57这其中包括Jaumotte和Tytel 1(2007)以及Lawless和Whelan(2007)。
58一般来说,5%以下的通货膨胀被成为“温和”型,5%-10%被成为快速型,10%以上被称之为恶性通货膨胀。
63以近期为例,按照目前的统计口径,工资份额只有10%多一点；扩大为3倍以后,更加符合实际。
64在(12)式中,变量θt与变量it相乘。
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