摘要
本文在相关文献的基础上,结合中国引资的实际情况,从东道国政府的引资策略,分权下的地方竞争以及产业网络等角度分析FDI在我国的技术溢出效应生成的影响因素和机理。
目前,虽然理论上大家一致认可FDI具有技术溢出效应,是国际间技术扩散的有效途径。这也是世界各国对外资实施慷慨的激励政策的主要理论依据。但不幸的是,学者们对不同国家的实证研究的结果却不如理论所述的那般完美。为此,本文首先对FDI有关理论和实证研究的分歧及进展的相关文献进行了简单有序的梳理。
为了给本文后面分析的展开提供一个现实基础和实证基础,我们随后粗略地介绍了中国引进FDI的基本情况,并运用1990-2005年的相关数据的时间序列进行了回归检验,得出结论:中国目前的技术进步主要还是有赖于国内的研发投入;人力资本存量对FDI的技术溢出效应的形成有显著的促进作用。但是值得注意的是,FDI对中国技术水平的拉动作用主要体现在它的直接效应而非间接效应上,即我国全要素生产率变化更多是因为外企自身具有的生产率优势而直接在量上的提高,而不是因技术溢出带来的内生技术能力的提高。
以此为基础,文章在多人合作博弈的框架下,分析了东道国政府的引资策略变化与跨国公司FDI的策略反应及FDI技术溢出效应之间的关系。我们的分析指出,东道国政府通过引入跨国公司进入本国,虽然能提高本国的市场价值,但即使外企与内企之间存在技术差距,在技术吸收门槛效应存在的情况下,东道国也并不能享受到显著的FDI技术溢出效应。显然技术溢出的前提是要有先进技术的进入,获取技术溢出的基础是要本国落后企业能够以低成本来消化和吸收这种先进技术。为了更好地实现以市场换技术战略,尽量扩大FDI的技术溢出效应,东道国政府对技术进步进行旁支付奖励是非常必要的。我们认为,东道国政府可以通过制定采用非线性定价的优惠措施来制定不同的优惠组合和引入多个竞争者,提高跨国公司技术转移速度和水平;而对本国企业的技术吸收成本的降低来看,国家应当以降低企业获取高素质的人力资本的成本为主,这种提高人力资本存量的投入从更长远的意义上比对单个企业的补贴更能满足东道国发展技术的愿望。
本文还利用制度经济学和新政治经济学,结合博弈论的分析方法来解释中国地方之间在引资方面所存在的激烈的竞争以及这种竞争的后果。简单地说这种竞争是源于中国中央与地方之间独特的政治经济关系。就吸引外资而言,直接参与到引资活动中的并不是中央政府而是各地方政府,FDI在解决投资、就业和增长的直观作用极大地迎合地方政府及其官员发展地方经济和追求政绩的需求。对FDI的竞争产生的结果是:为吸引外资而出台的各种竞争性优惠举措不仅会降低自己的利得,强化了跨国公司的谈判势力,还为跨国公司跨期套利提供了机会;地方上对外资数量的片面偏好掩盖了外资质量上的不足;中央期望的FDI技术溢出目标为地方上的资金、就业和GDP等数量目标所替代;地方经济的长期需要因地方官员对短期政绩的追求而被忽视。这些结果都在一定程度上缓解跨国公司须凭其技术优势进入的压力。换而言之,技术目标因地方竞争而被淡化。
网络这一概念为大家所熟知,但是产业网络和社会网络与FDI的技术溢出效应之间的关系这一点并未受到应有的重视。实际上,跨国公司的FDI行为本身就是其生产网络、供销网络乃至资源网络的一个拓展过程。如果从网络的观点来看,无论是FDI的水平溢出和还是垂直溢出都是通过各种连接发生的活动,也就是说,技术溢出本质上是一种网络结构中的技术流动。我们发现不同的跨国公司的产业网络结构特征及其与国内相关企业的产业网络联系的紧密程度对FDI技术溢出大小都有显著的影响;而跨国公司的技术网络及跨国公司员工的社会网络对他们的锁定效应往往会导致这些人力资本更多是在跨国公司之间流动,因此东道国企业要想获得这种基于人力资本流动而产生的技术溢出效应还要付出更多的努力。
总而言之,FDI技术溢出效应的生成取决于两方面的力量:先进技术的有效进入和有效吸收。恰当地运用FDI技术激励政策,努力提高各地的区位优势是加速跨国公司技术转移和深化的有效途径,加强产业网络的融合和建设,提高人力资本的质量和流动性是不断提升吸收能力的核心。两方面有机的结合起来就能为跨国公司在我国的技术转移和溢出形成推动力量和消化平台。
This paper attempts to address factors influencing the forthcoming of technology spillovers from FDI in the lights of government’s strategical choices of FDI attraction policy, regional competition under decentralization and industrial network.
The paper first presents a simple and orderly literatural review on both throretical and empirical development related to FDI studies. In theory, the exisitence of technology spillovers from FDI is guaranteed, which also provides theoretical support for countries to employ generous incentive policies to attract FDI. Unfortunately,empirical studies in different countries didn’t suggest such perfect results—spillovers are not always positive.
Then the paper makes a brief introduction to the history of FDI attraction in China and an empical study with use of time series data over the period of 1990-2005. The results show that: in China, at present, domestic R&D input is the main source of technology progress; FDI plays an important role in total factor productivity growth, but it occurs mostly through the direct effect that results from FDI enterprises’higher productivity owing to their advantages, rather through the indirect spillover effect that may increase the ability of endogenous technology. Yet stock of human capital can promote the spillovers of FDI.
Based on the empirical results above, the paper investigates the influence of government’s FDI strategies on the strategical responses and spillover effect of FDI enterprises (or MNEs) in a coorperative games framework. We find that MNEs accepted by host government can improve domestic market values, but with the presence of absorptive shredhold, it is not so naturally easy for domestic firms to benefit technology spillovers from FDI. In such a circumstance, at least two choices are left to host government: offering certain side payment (or so called non-linear pricing plans) whicht may encourage firms (foreign or domestic) to engage in more technological activities, alternatively or simultaneoustly , attracting more than one MNEs into one project which may effectively enhance competition between them and weaken their power in negociation, which will also force them to employ or make greater efforts to achieve more advanced technology to maintain their advantages, hereby increase potential the spillover effect
We notice that in China there is severe competition between local governments, especially in FDI attraction. Analysing in the approaches of institutional economics and new political economics, we argue that the rigional competition arises from the unique interaction between politics and economy. As far as FDI attraction concerned, it is local governments who are involved in FDI attraction games. With high belief of its positive impact on capital inflows, employment and GDPgrowth, FDI successfuly meet the local governments’needs in the short run, which is reflected by the fact that local governments have been competing with each other to provide foreign investors generously with special incentives. consequentaly, the quantity of FDI stands out its quality; the technological spillover effect anticipated by central government sacrifices to local employment or GDP growth targets; local long-run interests are neglected by local officials with their promising bureaucratic seek. After all technology spillovers from FDI and technology progress are an implicit and long-run process. Then who benefits most? MNEs.
Network is a popular concepct, but industrial and social networks are seldom taken into consideration with the effect of technology spillovers from FDI. In fact, FDI carried out by MNEs is a exploring process of their original networks of production, marketing and even resources. Technology spillovers from FDI in nature is a kind of technology flow in such a network structure.Our study shows that different industrial network structures where MNEs lie in have distinct influence on spillover effect of FDI, but the locking effect of MNEs technology network and the social network of their employers keep human capital against immigrating beyond the ring of MNEs.
In brief, the forthcoming technology spillovers from FDI count on two fundermental aspects: effective entrance (or transfer) of advanced technology and effective absorption of it. We believe that (1) appropriate FDI incentive policies and regional advanatage expansion are desirable ways to accelerate and deepen technology transfer ;(2) establishment of hamonous industrial network , higher quality and liquidity of human capital are the best choices that will improve the absorptive capacity in host country. Vigorous combination of the two aspects will generate driving forces and absorptive platform for more siganificant technology transfers and spillovers from FDI.
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