摘要
2007年正当人们逐渐淡忘1997年东南亚金融危机的时候,经济、金融都高度发达的美国发生了次贷危机,弹指十年间,金融危机两次袭击了世界,两次金融危机都给危机国及相关的国家和地区乃至整个世界的经济、金融带来了重创,尽管两次金融危机产生的原因纷繁复杂,但是有一点是可以肯定的,那就是两次危机都是与金融资源的开发、配置与利用不当有关,尤其是发生在美国的次贷危机更为明显。
随着经济金融全球化、经济金融化进程的加剧,金融越来越成为现代经济的基础和核心,越来越成为现代经济增长的源泉和保障,越来越成为现代经济战争的手段和工具,从而,金融的资源属性进一步突显。然而,当代主流经济学对金融资源却只是只言片语,更谈不上系统研究。本文试图运用当代主流经济学的分析方法来对金融资源加以研究,是把金融资源理论正式纳入当代主流经济学研究视野的一次尝试,因此,具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。
本文在深入理解金融资源内涵以及金融资源量化与评价的基础上,分别从理论上和经验上探讨了金融资源与经济的相互关系,得到的主要结论如下:
(1)可以从10个方面来深入理解金融资源的内涵,从而为金融资源理论的进一步研究打下坚实的基础,可以采用模糊层次综合评价法和因子分析综合评价法来对各国金融资源进行量化与评价,但是,因子分析综合评价法的评价结果更为客观。
(2)金融资源具有内生性和外生性的双重属性,这是本文中金融资源微观理论分析和宏观理论分析的前提条件。对于特定的经济发展水平或者特定的经济发展阶段,存在金融资源开发、配置和利用的帕累托最优状态,金融资源开发、配置和利用状况的持续帕累托改进,就是金融发展。
(3)从资金流动的路径来看,金融资源配置的参与者由实体部门(家庭、企业、政府)和金融组织体系(金融机构和金融市场)构成,他们的经济行为共同决定了金融资源的配置,进而决定了一般资源的跨期配置。家庭、企业和政府分别作为资金需求者和资金供给者在做出金融决策时,在满足一定的条件下,资金需求量和资金供给量达到最优。在理想条件下的完美市场中,资源配置达到了帕累托最优状态,在现实经济的非完美市场中,市场存在部分失灵。金融中介机构与金融市场一起,构成一个不可分割的有机整体,在改善资源的有效配置、提高经济主体的福利水平等方面共同发挥着重要作用。
(4)无论是长期还是短期,金融资源都是非中性的,即金融资源能够对经济增长产生影响。在长期,随着金融资源配置效率的不断提高,金融资源能够促进长期的经济增长,主要途径有:促进储蓄率的提高、促进储蓄向投资的转化、促进资本边际生产率的提高、促进技术进步或者知识水平的提升、直接促进产出水平的提高;而在短期,金融资源对经济波动存在双重影响,即一方面能够引起或者加剧经济波动,另一方面能够在熨平经济波动中发挥重要作用。
(5)基于因子分析法的金融资源量化与评价的实证分析得到的结果基本上与各国实际的金融运行情况相吻合,并且,具体的成因也可以在各国的经济金融运行过程中找到可能的解释,因此,因子分析法为量化与评价各国金融资源提供了客观的依据;在中国货币供应量的影响因素中基础货币的影响较大,中国货币供应量的变化有87.31%是由于基础货币变化的结果,这意味着中央银行可以通过货币政策工具来控制基础货币从而有效地控制货币供应量,这也说明货币供应量以外生性为主;在表示金融资源状况或者金融发展水平的几个主要指标中,绝大多数都是随着人均收入水平的提高而提高,并且与人均GDP相关性都较大,人均收入水平越高,相关性也越大,各个收入组国家都表现出了金融发展与经济增长的相互促进关系,其中,中低收入组国家和中高收入组国家更为明显。
本文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面:
(1)本文构建了运用主流经济学的分析方法来研究金融资源理论的整体框架,这是把金融资源理论正式纳入当代主流经济学研究视野的一次尝试,同时也是对金融资源理论的继承和发扬、扩展和深化,从而为金融资源理论的进一步研究打下了坚实的基础。
(2)本文运用因子分析综合评价法对金融资源的量化与评价做出了尝试和探讨,并做了大量的实证分析。
(3)本文在论述过程中,对于一些细节问题也有诸多创新之处,如对金融资源10大内涵的论述、金融资源内生性和外生性的分析、资金需求者分析和资金供给者分析、金融资源促进经济增长的各个途径分析等都具有一定的创新性。
本文在金融资源理论与经验研究的过程中,尽管存在一些创新之处,但是,也存在着一些不足,有待于在今后的研究中进一步完善。
In 2007, just as people have gradually forgotten Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997, the sub-prime crisis occurred in United States in which the economy and finance are highly developed. In ten years, the financial crisis has attacked the world twice and the two financial crises have brought heavy losses for the economy and finance of the countries in crisis, related countries and regions, and even the whole world. Although the causes of the two financial crises were complicated, but one thing is sure, that is, two crises are all related to the improper development, allocation and utilization of financial resource, especially, the sub-prime crisis that occurred in United States is more obvious. With the deepening of economy and finance globalizing, the process of economy financing, the finance has more and more become the foundation and core of modern economy, has more and more become the source and safeguard of modern economic growth, has more and more become the method and tool of modern economic war. Thus, the resource attribute of finance is further highlighted. However, the contemporary mainstream economics has only few words for financial resource, let alone studied systematically. This dissertation attempts to use the analysis method of contemporary mainstream economics to study financial resource, which is an attempt of putting financial resource theory into the contemporary mainstream economics research vision formally, therefore, of great theoretical and practical significance.
This dissertation discussed inter-relationship of financial resource and the economy from the theoretical and the empirical respectively, based on the in-depth understanding of financial resource connotation and the quantification and evaluation of financial resource. The main conclusions were obtained as follows:
(1) The connotation of financial resource can be understood thoroughly from ten aspects, thus lays a solid foundation for the further study of financial resource theory. The fuzzy level comprehensive evaluation method and the factor analysis comprehensive evaluation method can be used to quantify and evaluate financial resource of various countries, but the evaluation results of the factor analysis comprehensive evaluation method are more objective.
(2) Financial resource has dual attribute: endogenous attribute and exogenous attribute, which is the prerequisite for microscopic theory analysis and the macroscopic theory analysis of the financial resource in this dissertation. For a particular level of economic development or a particular stage of economic development, there exists Pareto optimal state of financial resource development, allocation and utilization; continuous Pareto improvement of financial resource development, allocation and utilization is just the financial development.
(3) From the path of capital flows, the participants of financial resource allocation consist of the real sector (household, enterprise and government) and the financial organization system (financial institutions and financial market). Their economic behaviors codetermine financial resource allocation, and then determine the inter- temporal allocation of general resource.When household, enterprise and government, served as capital demanders and capital providers respectively, make the financial decisions, capital demand and capital supply can achieve the optimal under certain conditions. In the perfect market under ideal conditions, resource allocation can achieve Pareto optimal state; in the non-perfect market of real economy, the part market failure exists. Financial intermediaries and financial markets constitute an indivisible organic whole, which play an important role in improving the efficient allocation of resource, enhancing the welfare level of economic participants and so on.
(4) Regardless of the long-term or the short-term, financial resource is non-neutral, that is, financial resource can have an impact on economic growth. In the long-term, with the increasing improvement of financial resource allocation efficiency, financial resource can promote long-term economic growth. The main ways include: promoting the increase of savings rates, promoting the transformation of savings to investment, promoting the improvement of marginal productivity of capital, promoting technological progress or the upgrade of knowledge level, and direct promoting the enhancement of output level; while in the short-term, financial resource have dual impact on economic fluctuation, that is, on the one hand, can cause or exacerbate economic fluctuation, on the other hand, can play an important role in pressing economic fluctuation.
(5) The results from empirical analysis of financial resource quantifying and evaluating based on factor analysis method are basically consistent with actual finance operational aspect of every country, and the concrete causes can also be found in economy and finance operational process of every country. Therefore, the factor analysis method provides the objective basis for quantifying and evaluating financial resource of every country. In the influencial factors of money supply of China, base money’s influence is bigger. 87.31% of the changes of money supply of China is as a result of base money changes, which means that the Central Bank can control the base money through monetary policy tools, thereby effectively control the money supply, which also shows that the money supply primarily have exogenous attribute. In several major indicators that express the state of financial resource or the level of financial development, a large majority improves along with the improvement of GNI per capita, and has bigger correlation with GDP per capita, the higher GNI per capita, the bigger the correlation is. The countries in every income group have shown the mutual promotion relations between financial development and economic growth, especially, the countries in middle-low income group and the countries in middle-high income group become more obvious.
The main innovations of this dissertation are listed in the following:
(1) This dissertation constructed the overall framework which studied financial resource theory using the mainstream economic analysis method, which is an attempt of putting financial resource theory into the contemporary mainstream economics research vision formally, simultaneously was also the inheriting and carrying forward, expansion and deepening for financial resource theory, thus laid a solid foundation for the further research of financial resource theory.
(2) This dissertation made the attempt and the discussion for the quantification and evaluation of the financial resource using the factor analysis comprehensive evaluation method and made a lot of empirical analysis.
(3) During the discussing, this dissertation also has many innovations for some details, for example, the discussion for the ten connotations of financial resource, the analysis for endogenous attribute and exogenous attribute of financial resource, the analysis for capital demander and capital providers and the analysis for the various ways by which finance promote economic growth and so on, all have certain innovation.
During the theoretical and empirical research on finance resource, although there are some innovations in this dissertation, but there are also a number of insufficiency, which has to be further improved in the future study.
引文
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