摘要
BT模式是由BT承办方进行投融资、建设和移交,BT主办方进行回购并支付回购价款的一种项目融资建设模式。目前,城市轨道交通BT项目的回购定价存在很多争议,争议的实质是双方对城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价款的调整权利有争议,并认为承担的风险不能真实反映在回购总价款上。本研究基于风险分担的视角研究城市轨道交通BT项目的回购定价,提出了定性加定量的研究框架,解决了城市轨道交通BT项目的回购定价问题。
目前在BT项目回购定价的回购基价调整研究中,很多学者探讨了影响回购定价的主要因素,但只是对个别影响因素进行了简单介绍;在BT项目回购定价的投资回报率研究中定性研究较多,缺乏对与BT承办方承担风险相对应的投资回报率的定量研究。本研究基于风险分担视角,对影响城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价款的风险因素进行系统性研究,利用风险分析理论中的工作结构分解法、德尔菲法和因果图法等识别了影响城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价款的风险因素;采用调查问卷法、综合评价法和聚类分析法,分析出了影响城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价款的关键风险因素;在建立了风险分担影响因素的理论模型和城市轨道交通BT项目的风险分配框架后,在其指引下并以“效率优先”为准则对关键风险因素进行了风险分担,得到了关键风险分配矩阵。对应BT主办方承担的风险因素,剖析了BT主办方承担的7种关键风险因素对回购基价的影响机理,构建了城市轨道交通BT项目回购基价调整的模型,并以算例证明了影响回购基价的机理和因素。对应BT承办方承担的风险因素,剖析了BT承办方承担的9种风险因素对投资回报率的影响机理,并基于蒙特卡洛模拟的VaR模型和BT承办人承担的影响城市轨道交通BT项目回购总价款的9种关键风险因素,提出并建立了城市轨道交通BT项目投资回报率定量模型,其中,可以通过城市轨道交通BT项目风险收益的度量模型模拟计算工程风险费用,进一步解决了城市轨道交通BT项目回购定价中的投资回报问题。最后,以深圳地铁5号线BT项目为案例进行实证研究。在案例中对所研究的关键风险的分担、回购基价的调整、投资回报等进行了详细分析。
BT mode is a financing mode for construction project in which the BT organizer carries out financing, construction and transfer, and then the BT host repurchases the project and pays for it. At present, there are many disputes on the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. The substance of the dispute is that the two parties of BT project in urban rail traffic cannot make agreement on the adjustment right over the repurchase price and reckon that the risk beard could not reflected from the repurchase price. Based on the perspective of risk-sharing, proposed framework for quantitative research qualitative increase, the study works over the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic which resolves the problems in it.
Nowadays, in the study of the adjustment of repurchase base price for BT project, many scholars discuss about the main factors that influence the repurchase pricing; however, they only give simple introduction of some specific influence factors. The study on return on investment is mainly qualitative research, lacking quantitative research in the return on investment that accords to the risk borne by the BT organizer. Based on the perspective of risk-sharing, the paper carries out systematic study on the risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. It utilizes Work Breakdown Structure method, Delphi method and cause and effect diagram in risk analysis theory to identify the risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic; adopts questionnaire, comprehensive evaluation method and cluster analysis to analyze the key risk factors that influence the repurchase pricing for BT project in urban rail traffic. After establishing the theory mode for risk sharing and the frame for allocation of risk in BT project in urban rail traffic, with its guidance and "Efficiency first" as a criterion, the paper distributes the risk to the key risk factors and arrives to the matrix for risk allocation. Corresponding to the risk factors that BT host bears, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of 7 key risk factors affecting on repurchase base price, establishes the mode for adjustment of the repurchase base price for BT project in urban rail traffic and prove the mechanism and factors that influence the repurchase price with cases. Corresponding to the risk factors that BT host bears, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of 9 risk factors the BT host bears affecting on the return on investment. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation VaR (Value at Risk) model and 9 risk factors the BT host bears affecting on the return on investment, the paper establishes quantitative mode for return on investment in BT project in urban rail traffic. The risk cost in the project can be calculated simulatively with measurement mode for risk benefit in BT project in urban rail traffic and this can resolve further the issues of return on investment in the repurchase pricing in BT project in urban rail traffic. Lastly, analyze the BT project-No.5 subway in Shenzhen. In the case, the paper analyzes the share of key risks, the adjustment of base repurchase price and return on investment in detail.
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