摘要
近年来,随着人们对公路建设工程引发的环境和安全等问题的关注,工程中因各种不确定因素引起的风险正日益受到重视,相关的工程风险分析和风险管理也正在成为一项新兴的技术和行业,并逐渐应用于工程实际当中。
云南省地处我国西南,自然环境与社会经济环境复杂而又独特,随着国家西部建设事业的推进,云南省山区高速公路建设发展迅猛。然而近年修建云南元(元江)磨(磨黑)高速公路、楚(楚雄)大(大理)高速公路、水(水富)麻(麻柳湾)高速公路的实践表明,云南公路建设的外围大环境差(包括气候变化大、地质构造复杂、地形条件险峻、生态环境脆弱、经济落后、人文环境差异等)是不争的事实,这些外在条件决定了云南省高速公路建设中必然存在巨大的潜在风险。因此,有必要在云南省公路建设、管理部门引入工程建设风险评价与管理体系,以使广大风险管理人员能统观全局,科学管理,实现风险效益的最优化。
本文以云南省山区高速公路工程为背景,对山区高速公路工程风险分析及风险决策领域的热点和难点进行了研究,主要工作内容如下:
(1)通过大量的资料查阅,初步分析了云南山区高速公路规划、设计、施工和运营各阶段的主要风险,说明了论文研究内容的必要性。
(2)根据云南省山区高速公路建设的特点,按工程建设的不同阶段和工程建设的不同结构类型,提出了适用的风险辨识和分析方法。在此基础上,以云南水麻高速公路工程为例,对该线路施工过程中的主要风险因素进行了统计,论证了该工程的主要风险事故及可能的风险源。
(3)针对云南高速公路建设项目特点,建议采用层次分析法作为云南山区高速公路工程建设风险评价方法;提出了云南省公路工程建设风险接受准则;针对性地提出了风险的控制措施与对策;以云南水麻高速公路第11标段建设工程为例,对工程可能的风险进行识别,并采用层次分析等风险评价方法进行分析,得到该标段风险权重值,并依据云南山区高速公路工程建设风险接受准则确定风险综合评价等级。
(4)从危险性和易损性评价角度出发,建立了云南省高速公路岩堆边坡风险评价体系,并以在建的云南水麻高速公路14标K68+890～+990滑坡岩堆边坡为例,进行了滑坡风险评价,结果表明此边坡的风险等级为Ⅲ级。
(5)解释了风险决策的重要意义,指出在工程方案决策时,应考虑方案的风险,介绍了风险决策的方法和一般步骤,并结合风险控制措施讨论了高速公路建设的风险控制效益。以云南水麻高速公路第6标段建设工程石桥隧道的方案风险决策为例,从成本风险、工期风险、环境风险三个方面,对隧道建设方案和明挖路堑方案进行分析比较,得出路堑方案的决策值为0.71,隧道方案的决策值为0.62,并建议优先选择隧道方案。实践表明,引入工程风险决策机制对相关部门科学决策、实现风险效益最优化有重要意义。
研究结果表明,开展云南省公路工程风险评价及风险决策理论方法研究,对在建公路工程进行风险评价和风险决策,将有助于对云南省高速公路建设工程进行有效的风险管理,有助于减少工程灾害造成的生命财产损失、节约防灾减灾工程费用。
In recent years,People more and more care about the environment changes and engineering safety caused by the highway engineering. Risks in engineering caused by many uncertainty factors which are got highly recognition. The correlative engineering risk analysis and risk management is becoming a new technique and a new trade,and this technique is gradually used in engineering praetice.
Yunnan province is located in southwest China. There are very complicated natural environment and socio-economic environment. With implementation of the western development strategy, the mountainous expressway construction of Yunnan develops rapidly. From the projects which were constructed several years ago, such as yuanjiang-mohei expressway, chuxiong-dali expressway, shuifu-maliuwan expressway, the expressway construction of Yunnan is faced with many difficulties, especially large climate variation, complex geologic structure, steep geographic condition, fragile eco-environment, under-developed social economy, distinct humanistic environment, etc.. These mean huge engineering risks. So, it is very necessary to apply engineering risk evaluation and management to expressway projects of Yunnan.
In this paper, the key and difficult questions in engineering risk evaluation and risk decision area are studied. The shuifu-maliuwan expressway project in Yunnan as the engineering example is detailed studied. The main contents researched in this paper are as follows:
(1)Based on a lot of data, the main risks in stages of programme, design, construction and operation of the mountainous expressway project in Yunnan are exemplified and analyzed;
(2)Based on the charactristics of the mountainous expressway construction in Yunnan, the risk identification and analysis method is introduced, according to different construction stages and structural types. And then, taking the shuifu-maliuwan expressway project in Yunnan as an example, the paper statistics the main risk factors, and demonstrates the main risk accidents and the possible risk sources.
(3)Based on the charactristics of the mountainous expressway construction in Yunnan, anaiytic hierarchy process(AHP) is suggested to apply as appropriate engineering risk evaluation method; Engineering risk acceptance criteria, risk control measure and countermeasure for expressway projects in Yunnan are introducted. And then, taking the No.11 contract section of shuifu-maliuwan expressway project in Yunnan as an example, the risk weight is calculated, and the risk level is determined on the basis of the possible engineering risk identification and analysis.
(4)Landslide risk evaluation method of the mountainous expressway construction in Yunnan, is proposed, from two aspects( hazard and vulnerability). And then, taking the No.14 contract section of shuifu-maliuwan expressway project in Yunnan as an example, the landslide risk value is calculated, and the risk level isⅢ.
(5)This paper eaplains the significance of risk decision-making, and introduces the method and process of risk decision-making, and discusses the effectiveness of risk control.And then, taking the No.6 contract section of shuifu-maliuwan expressway project in Yunnan as an example, the paper analyzes comparatively two engineering programs- tunnel and cutting, from the cost risk, project period risk and environment risk. According to the results, the decision-making value of cutting is 0.71, and the decision-making value of tunnel is 0.62. It is clear that tunnel program should been given exclusive priority.
To sum up, the study results about engineering risk evaluation and risk decision of the mountainous expressway projects of Yunnan will help people to apply risk management method to expressway construction, to reduce engineering accidents and save cost.
引文
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