摘要
随着能源需求快速增加,大庆、胜利等老油区的石油资源日益减少,我国石油勘探、开发重点逐步转向塔里木、准噶尔、鄂尔多斯等新发现油田。同时,油田勘探开发难度越来越高,油田勘探开发成本不断上升,投资风险日益加大,于是油田开采企业越来越重视投资回报率,希望从经济效益角度评价过去的投资效益,以及制定下一步的投资计划。然而现有文献主要以老油田为研究对象,无法有效解决新油田的投资效益评价和决策问题。与老油田相比,在投资决策上新油田具有以下特点：
(1)新油田往往地质认识不充分,历史样本数据少,无法用传统的方法较准确预测勘探投资、开发投资与新增储量和新井产量之间的关系。(2)新油田地面工程建设和管道建设投资大,而该项投资属于基础投资,不能直接对储量和产量产生影响。(3)新油田往往边探边采,可能没有达到规定的“储采比”要求时就已经开发,所以不能和老油田一样满足“长期稳定开采”的储采比约束,需要引入“采收接替率约束”。
为此,本论文针对新油田的特点,构造新油田勘探投资、开发投资、管线建设投资效果的评价方法,建立勘探、开发、运输通道建设投资优化模型与算法,从而制定新油田投资的时间、金额、区域和产能等相关计划,为我国新油田的投资决策提供理论支撑。本文在研究过程中,始终以鄂尔多斯盆地南部边缘某新油田的5个区块为实例,说明油田投资效益评价与决策优化的应用过程,并取得了令人满意的结果。
全文的研究内容、研究方法及相应的成果简述如下：
首先,结合我国新油田勘探、开发和投资决策的现状与难题,说明本文的选题背景,研究的现实与理论意义,并提出本文的研究目标、内容与创新点。
其次,作者回顾了油田投资效益评价与决策优化理论的相关研究现状,并分析了现有研究应用于新油田时面临的问题和困难。
第三,引入了基于DEA的新油田勘探开发投资评价模型,建立了新油田勘探开发投资效益评价指标体系,综合研究使用了投入导向的CCR模型、BCC模型、FG模型、ST模型、规模报酬不变假设下的超效率模型和规模报酬可变假设下的超效率模型,将模型应用于鄂南油区某新油田的投资效益评价。
第四,对具有备选方案的新油田外输管线方案优选问题,引入了结合前景理论的混合型多属性决策方法,依据决策者对各种属性的期望,将混合型决策矩阵转化为关于参考点的损益决策矩阵,并根据备选方案与决策期望的广义加权欧氏距离建立可变模糊识别模型,构造一个包含属性权重向量和隶属度的拉格朗日松弛函数,然后采用交叉循环迭代计算求解,得到各个方案与参照点的最优隶属度和权重向量,最后综合考虑各个方案的累积前景值和隶属度,计算各个方案的综合前景值,并依据综合前景值的大小对方案进行排序,从多条候选方案中优选一条初始外输方案。
第五,对没有备选方案的新油田外输管线布局优化问题,把外输管线路径和泵站转换成一个有向赋权图,通过获取各个泵站之间的线路建设费用、线路运行维护费用、泵站费用、泵站运行维护费用和能耗费用,建立网络优化算法,以求得最优的外输管线方案。
第六,以投资净现值最大化为目标,建立了新油田中长期勘探开发投资优化问题的混合整数规划模型,考虑了投资限额约束、地面工程建设约束、储采比约束、产量衰减等约束,构造了分类估计法预测模型中的两个重要参数(勘探和开发投资系数),并以鄂南油区某油田为例,将有关参数代入模型,编译成lingo程序,求解后得到投资计划的优化结果。。
第七,构造了新油田中长期勘探开发投资优化模型的两个扩展问题,考虑了区块均衡约束、储量接替率约束,扩展后的模型可以较灵活地解决新油田的勘探开发投资计划问题,同样以鄂南油区某油田为例,将有关参数代入模型,编译成lingo程序,求解后得到投资计划的优化结果。
第八,论文还针对长期投资优化模型不能应用于短期计划的特点,设计了短期投资优化模型与算法,同样以鄂南油区某油田为例,将有关参数代入模型,编译成lingo程序,求解后得到投资计划的优化结果。
最后,对全文内容及研究结论进行了总结,并对文中有待进一步深入研究的地方提出日后研究的方向和展望。
With the increasing scarcity of oil resources in Daqing and Shengli Oilfield, the oilfield development projects have been tunring to newly discovered oil fields, such as Tarim oilfield, Junggar oilfield and Ordos's oilfield. Meanwhile, the newly oilfields becomes too difficult to exploit, and the exploration cost increase obviously. Thus, Oil field enterprise has to emphasize economic evaluation to gain more benefits at the expense of less cost. However, the existing research mainly on old oilfields, which could not solve the evaluation of investing benefit and newly oilfields' investment decision-making effectively. For this envrionment, the geological knowledge is not sufficient and less historical data, so the traditional methods can not accurately predict the relationship between exploration investment and development investment, and the reserves and production of new wells. Moreover, the surface project and pipeline construction of new oil fields requires a mass of investments. Finally, the exploration and developing stages have not met the requirements of reserve-production ratio. Therefore, we proposed the concept of reserve replacement ratio constraints. According to the characteristics of new oil fields, the article constructs the evaluation methodology of investment results in new oilfield exploration, development and pipeline construction investment. Then this study establishes exploration, development and pipeline construction investment optimization model to make a plan for new oilfield of time, amount, area and capacity, which will provide theoretical support for the investment decisions of new oilfields. Among the research, we have taken five blocks of south Ordos's oilfield as examples to explain the application process of investment benefit evaluation and decision optimization. The detailed research contents pressents as follows:
Firstly, the study combines exploration and development investment returns evaluation with the current situations and problems of decision-making to illustrate background of selected topic and concluding realistic and theoretical significance of research, and puts forward research goals and innovation point.
Secondly, this study summerizes current research situation relevant research status of oilfield investment evaluation and decision-making, and analyzes the problems when the research applied to the new oilfields.
Thirdly, introduced use DEA model to calculate the efficiency of exploration and development investment and design a more suitable system of integrated traditional input-oriented CCR models, BCC models, FG models, ST models and the Super-efficiency DEA model under the assumption variable returns to scale and constant returns to scale, then using the model to evaluate the efficiency of the oilfield investment returns.
Fourthly, Introduces hybrid multi-attribute decision making combining prospect theory for the problem of new oil outside pipeline solution optimization which has viable alternatives. According to expectations of decision makers for each attributes, the hybrid decision matrixs have been converting to loss decision matrix based on the reference point. With the alternative and decision expected weighted Euclidean distances, the Variable fuzzy recognition model are founded, then contains attributes weighting vector and membership degree is constructed. A cross-iteration solving approach has proposed to obtain the optimal weight vector and membership. Finally, considering the cumulative prospect value and membership of each program, calculate the value of the cumulative prospect value of the various options for sequence and selection making.
Fifthly, the problem of new oilfield outside pipeline layout optimization which has no alternative, converted outside pipelines and pumping stations into a weighed direct graph establish a network optimization algorithm for optimal solutions of outside pipelines program, through the construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, the cost of pumping stations, operation and maintenance costs and energy costs between each pumping station.
Sixthly, in order to maximize the net present value of investment for the purpose, a mixed integer programming model about medium and long term investment in exploration and development was established. Investment limit constraints, ground engineering construction constraints, reserve-production ratio constraint, output attenuation constraint and two important parameters using classification estimation were considered. In the end we take an oilfield in the southern Ordos as an example and plug the relevant parameters into the model, and then we can get the optimal results for the investment plan through Lingo.
Seventh, two expanded problem about new oilfields'long-term investment optimization model has been constructed. Taking the block equilibrium constraints and reserve replacement rate constraints into account, the expanded model can be a flexible solution for the new oilfields' exploration and development investment planning problem. We take an oilfield in the southern Ordos as an example and plug the relevant parameters into the model, and then we can get the optimal results for the investment plan through Lingo.
Eighth, this paper design a short-term investment optimization model and algorithms as the long-term model does not fit the short-term problem. We also take an oilfield in the southern Ordos as an example and plug the relevant parameters into the model, and then we can get the optimal results for the investment plan through Lingo.
Finally, the article makes a summary on the research contents and conclusions. Moreover, the places worthy of deep-going study are given directions and prospects in the future research.
引文
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