摘要
随着科学技术的迅猛发展,世界农业也因此得到迅速的发展,从农药化肥的发明使用到转基因食品的出现,生物技术极大地改变了人们的生活,也为农业的增产增收做出了重大贡献。但随着农村剩余劳动力的快速增长,农业经济低效运行,农村经济活力不足,农业生产和经济发展中的资源不合理利用现象依然存在,农业环境呈现日益恶化的倾向。这些问题迫使人们不得不重新审视和调整人与自然的关系、农业的发展方向和方式,农业可持续发展也成为许多生态学者们关注的研究对象。
能值分析理论是美国著名生态学家Odum为首创立的,是目前系统生态学和生态经济学发展的新成果,克服了传统生态系统分析方法(能量分析法)的不足,把不同种类、不可比较的能量转换成同一标准的能值,能定量分析生态经济系统的结构和功能,评价与分析系统的可持续发展能力,为生态系统可持续发展开辟了一条新的研究途径。
论文应用能值分析理论,以湖南省农业生态系统为研究对象,在对该系统自然资源、经济和社会等各方面的资料进行调查、测定、计算、收集的基础上分析了其投入产出状况、运行效率和环境负荷,比较了系统内不同地区的发展水平差异,对省内各州市的绿色GDP进行的核算与重新排名,揭示了湖南省农业生态系统能值演替规律和基本趋势,并用能值可持续发展指数与数据包络方法对系统的可持续发展状况进行了综合评价。
经过理论与实证分析,本文得到以下主要研究结论：①湖南省是一个农业人口大省,湖南农业仍处于主要以大量劳力能值来维持的传统农业阶段,系统能值投资率虽处于全国中等偏上水平,但整体上对环境资源的利用效率较低,农业生态经济系统还不发达。②湖南农业的主导产业是种植业和畜牧业,林业和渔业的比重很小,在种植中,谷物和油料等作物仍然处于主导地位,其它等还没有形成优势产业,总体来讲,产业回报率不高,农产品附加值低,产业竞争力不强。③环境资源承受的压力较大,但与发达国家比还是有一定的增长空间。④湖南省省农业生态系统经过10年的演变与发展,湖南农业生态系统的投入产出水平有了较大幅度的提高,主要原因是湖南农业生态系统能值投入结构与能值产出结构均发生了重大变化。⑤湖南省不同农业生态类型区的能值流量差异大,因此能值投入与产出指标也呈现较大差异性。⑥传统农业生态经济系统GDP的核算方法存在着一定的弊端,如果用能值理论进行绿色GDP核算,更能反映农业生态系统要持续性。计算出来的湖南各地区的绿色GDP排名与按传统的GDP核算的结果排名也不完全一样。⑦湖南省农业生态系统总体可持续发展水平不高,主要是由于较高的环境负载率和较低的净能值产出率所致。要改变这一局面,一方面可通过加大农业科技要素投入力度,提高农业机械化,产业化的水平,提高净能值产出率；另一方面,要控制人口增长,控制土地资源的减少,想办法转移农村剩余劳动力,以降低环境负载率。⑧湖南农业生态系统可持续发展水平呈现非均衡性,本文通过能值可持续发展指数、绿色GDP及用DEA模型等对系统各州市的可持续发展水平进行了综合评价并排名,结果是：可持续发展水平综合得分最高的前三位为株洲、常德和郴州,其他依次为：长沙、岳阳、永州、张家界、衡阳、怀化、湘潭、湘西自治洲、益阳、邵阳、和娄底。
本文提出了促进湖南农业可持续发展的对策及建议：①优化系统辅助能值投入结构,提高农业生态系统运行效率；②控制农村人口数量,提高农村人口素质,培育新型农民；③加快农村城镇化进程,转移农村剩余劳动力,减轻环境压力；④调整产业与产品结构,促进农业生态经济效益上新台阶；⑤因势利导,对不同农业生态系统类型实行差别化的农业产业政策；⑥提高农业资源利用率,加强生态环境建设,促进可持续发展。
With the rapid development of science and technology, the world agriculture has been developed.From the invention of pesticides and fertilizers to the emergence of genetically modified foods, biotechnology is changing people's lives and also plays a key role on agricultural output.But with the rapid increase in rural, inefficient operation of the agricultural economy, lacks of vitality of the rural economy, and the irrational using of agricultural resources, the phenomenon of agricultural pollution and the worsening situation exists to varying degrees in many regions of China.These problems force people to have to re-examine and adjust the relationship between man and nature,and the directions and ways of agricultural development.The sustainable development of agricultural is the object of study which concerned by the ecology, economics scholars.
The emergy analysis theory that founded by the famous American ecologist Odum is the new results of the development of systems ecology and ecological economics,the theory overcomes the defects of the traditional economics which just study the economic value while ignore the value of resources and environment and the the lacks of traditional ecological system analysis method of value measurement,and the theory systematically considers the effects of the factors economic, resource and environment and so on in the ecosystem.Using the emergy analysis theory and method, people can convert different types energy that can not compare to the same standard emergy. It quantitative analyses the structure and function of the agro-ecosystem,it evaluates and analyses system's sustainable development capacity,and it opens up new ways and methods for the study of sustainable development of ecosystems.
This paper applies the emergy analysis theory,it takes Hunan Agricultural ecosystem as the research object,and it analyses Hunan agricultural input and output, operation efficiency and environmental load based on the investigation, determination, calculation, collection of the information of natural resources, economic and social aspects of the system;It compares the system's level of development between different regions;It accounts of the city's sustainable development indicators --- Green GDP and sorts them; It analyses and reveals the emergy of the system's succession law and the basic trend;With the emergy sustainability index and the DEA method,it takes a comprehensive evaluation of the sustainable development status of the system.
The main findings of this paper are as follows:①Hunan Province is an agricultural populous provinces,Hunan agriculture remains at the traditional agricultural phase which is maintained by a large number of labour emergy, although the emergy input is above the national average, but with the low level of mechanization and the low level using of environmental resources,agricultural ecosystems is relatively underdeveloped.②Hunan leading industries are agriculture and livestock farming, forestry and fisheries account for a very small proportion.In the planting industry, grain and oil crops are still dominant, other industries have not yet become a competitive advantage.From the view of net emergy yield,industry rate of return is not high.The main reasons are the low value-added agricultural products, and the industrial competitiveness is not strong.③From the view of environment load ratio, environmental resources withstand high pressure, but compared with developed countries it still has some room for growth.④After 10 years of Hunan agricultural development,agro-ecosystems of the input-output ratio has greatly improved, because Hunan agricultural ecosystem emergy input structure and the structure of the emergy output have been significantly changed.⑤The emergy flow between different agro-ecological zones of Hunan have considerable differences,and emergy analysis indicators'are quite different,there are obvious regional differences.⑥There are drawbacks and deficiencies for accounting methods of traditional agricultural eco-economic systemGDP,Green GDP reflects the sustainability of agricultural ecosystems better.Using the energy analysis method, this paper calculates the green GDP of the various states in Hunan province,and sorts the per capita green GDP of them,the results are different from the traditional GDP accounting and ranking results.⑦The reason why sustainable development of agro-ecosystem level is not high is that it has higher environmental loading rate but lower net energy yield.⑧the level of sustainable development of Hunan Agricultural eco-system is demonstrated as non-equilibrium, In this paper,the system level of the sustainable is comprehensively evaluated and ranked by the emergy sustainable development indicators, green GDP and DEA models. as a result:the highest scores for the top three sustainable development level is Zhuzhou, Changde and Chenzhou, the other as follows:Changsha and Yueyang, Yongzhou, Zhangjiajie Hengyang, Huaihua Xiangtan, Western self-Chau,Yiyang,Shaoyang, and Loudi.
Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development of Hunan:①We should optimize the input structure of the supporting energy, especially increase the elements of agricultural science and technology input,increase the level of agricultural mechanization,extend the industrial chain and so on,to improve the efficiency of agro-ecosystems;②We should control the number of rural population, improve the quality of rural population, and train new farmers;③We should speed up the urbanization process,transfer rural surplus labor force, and reduce pressure on the environment;④We should adjust industry and product structure and promot agricultural ecological and economic benefits;⑤We should implement differentiated agricultural industrial policy for different types of agro-ecosystems;⑥We should improve the utilization of agricultural resources,strengthen ecological environment construction,to promote sustainable development.
引文
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