摘要
人口老龄化已经成为当今世界的主要趋势,中国也正面临人口老龄化的挑战。不同年龄阶段的人口其经济行为具有很强的异质性,对经济的影响也不尽相同。人口老龄化趋势的加强,必然会通过一系列的变量最终对国内生产总值带来影响。因此,在此背景下,研究人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系显得尤为重要。
中国是当今世界第一人口大国,人口与国内生产总值相关关系的问题对中国未来的发展有着至关重要的影响。20世纪70年代中国实行了与人口和经济增长相关的两项至关重要的政策：与人口相关的计划生育政策,与经济增长相关的改革开放政策。计划生育政策使新生儿数量急剧下降；改革开放促进中国经济持续快速上涨,于此同时人们的生活水平与医疗条件的提高和改善,使寿命逐渐延长。这两项政策在国内生产总值增长的同时,却带来了人口老龄化的出现。
进行本研究可以推进人口老龄化与经济增长相关理论的认识；深入且全面的了解我国人口老龄化的状况；从实证角度,利用1982-2010年中国时间序列数据和2010年中国31个地区的截面数据对人口老龄化与国内生产总值关系进行分析；为制定相关的人口和经济增长政策提供考量。
宏观经济学用来衡量国内生产总值的主要变量为储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买。首先通过分析人口老龄化与国内生产总值,判断人口老龄化与国内生产总值的相关关系。然后分别研究人口老龄化与储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买的相关关系,可以进一步判断人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系,为将来制定相应政策提供依据。
本研究微观与宏观数据相结合使用,使数据分析与估计更加准确适用。基于理论研究和文献,描述我国储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买的特征。运用比较前沿的研究方法,即处理滞后变量内生性的System-GMM方法,使用Stata11.0软件,对人口老龄化与储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买的关系进行估计。运用Eviews6.0与Stata11.0软件对人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系进行时间序列和截面数据的检验。从而保证研究的科学性与可信性。
本研究依次经过以下四步骤：首先,对人口老龄化与经济增长的相关理论和文献进行整理,为后续研究提供理论支持和模型支助。其次,对我国现阶段的人口状况给予充分介绍,从人口年龄结构转变状况、出生率、死亡率和自然增长率转变状况、人口抚养比转变状况、老年人口增长率状况、总和生育率状况、老年人口性别比、人口老龄化地区差异和人口年龄中位数这八个方面对中国人口状况予以分析。第三,实证分析人口老龄化与国内生产总值的相关关系,广义矩估计法分析人口老龄化与储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买四方面的相关关系。对人口老龄化与中国国内生产总值的关系给予全面阐释。最后。基于前述分析,提出人口老龄化背景下实现经济增长的对策建议和启示。
具体而言,本研究分为九章内容：
第一章,导论。是进行研究设计和构建文章框架部分。介绍文章的选题背景,阐述进行本研究的目的和必要性；然后阐述本文的研究目标和文章结构,构建文章的分析框架；接着介绍本研究使用的研究思路和研究方法,设计技术路线；最后阐述文章可能的创新与存在的不足之处。
第二章,相关理论研究与文献综述。首先对基础理论进行阐述,阐述经济增长与人口研究的相关理论。接着进行本研究的相关理论综述,重点阐述引入人口因素,尤其是引入人口老龄化因素后,经济增长模型的变化。然后从人口老龄化的消极影响和积极影响两方面,进行人口老龄化与国内生产总值的文献综述。
第三章,中国人口老龄化的状况分析。首先介绍人口老龄化相关的基本概念。然后对中国的人口老龄化状况进行描述。进而构建人口老龄化对经济社会发展影响的评价体系。接着基于第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查数据,运用CPPS软件对中国人口老龄化的状况进行预测,预测中国人口2010-2050年的发展趋势。
第四章,人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系。首先应用1982-2010年中国人口老龄化和国内生产总值的数据,运用单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型、信息标准差扰动影响分析和方差分解法进行时间序列分析,突出时间差异,检验人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系。然后应用2010年中国31个地区的省际截面数据,运用异方差检验、多元线性回归分析和多重共线性检验方法进行截面数据分析,突出空间差异,检验人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系。
第五章,人口老龄化与储蓄的关系。首先介绍人口老龄化与储蓄的研究背景,对系统GMM估计原理进行阐述。接着构建人口老龄化与储蓄的系统GMM变量和模型,并进行估计。得出结论,老年抚养比与居民储蓄率呈现正相关关系,老年人口增长率与居民储蓄率呈现负相关关系。
第六章,人口老龄化与消费的关系。首先进行人口老龄化与消费的现状分析,对相关文献进行阐述。接着根据人口老龄化与消费的特点选择变量,构建系统GMM模型。得出结论,老年抚养比和老年人口增长率与消费呈现负相关关系。然后利用灰色关联度分析法,进行人口老龄化对消费结构影响的分析。得出结论,人口老龄化对消费品的需求和产业结构造成很大程度的影响。
第七章,人口老龄化与净出口的关系。首先阐述研究背景与文献情况。基于背景和文献,选择相关变量,构建人口老龄化与净出口的系统GMM广义矩估计模型,模型包含时间哑变量。得到结论,老年抚养比与净出口呈现正相关关系,老年人口增长率与净出口呈现负负相关关系。
第八章,人口老龄化与政府购买的关系。首先对人口老龄化与政府购买总值的关系进行估计。根据人口老龄化与政府购买的特征,选择分析变量,构建分析模型。得出结论,老年抚养比与政府购买呈现正相关关系,老年人口增长率与政府购买呈现负相关关系。然后对人口老龄化与医疗卫生支出的关系进行估计。根据人口老龄化与医疗卫生支出的特征,选择分析变量,构建分析模型。得出结论,老年抚养比与医疗卫生支出呈现正相关关系,老年人口增长率与医疗卫生支出呈现负相关关系。
第九章,对策建议与启示。首先基于相关关系检验和估计的结果,提出合理可行的对策建议,为制定相关政策提供科学的考量。然后总结人口老龄化与国内生产总值关系的启示,正确认识和科学判断人口老龄化与国内生产总值的关系。最后阐述本文的未来研究方向。
本研究有以下创新之处：较早的利用数据探讨中国人口老龄化与国内生产总值的相关关系。基于宏观经济学的观点,以支出法表示的国内生产总值包含四个方面：储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买。分别探讨人口老龄化与这四个方面的相关关系。构建储蓄、消费、净出口和政府购买四条传导机制。运用处理面板数据的系统GMM广义矩估计方法。采用系统GMM广义矩估计克服了运用横截面和面板数据的OLS方法、固定效应分析等的不足之处,可以避免内生性对模型的影响。对结果进行了Hansen检验和序列相关检验,从而保证结论的可靠性。另外,较早的进行人口老龄化与政府购买的关系研究。首先进行人口老龄化与政府购买总值的关系探讨,在此基础上,进一步研究人口老龄化与政府医疗卫生支出值的关系。
但是,由于对研究内容的把握情况、数据资料搜集情况和本人的研究能力等原因,文章存在以下不足之处：数据资料的不健全,本文仅对中国31个行政区的人口老龄化与国内生产总值状况进行分析,未包含香港、澳门和台湾地区。在做广义矩估计时,选取了一定数量的控制变量,以使模型估计更准确。但是在控制变量选取时,虽然尽可能将重要的控制变量放到模型中,也未能做到选取的全面性,可能会遗漏一些控制变量。这虽然对研究结果不会带来很大影响,但也是应该改进的地方。目前的社会状况,对养老保障体系提出更高要求；4-2-1家庭数目的增多,对社会福利和保障提出了更高的要求。这些变化都应该在研究范围之列,但本文未对此作进一步的研究。
The population aging has become the major trends in the world today; China is facing the challenge of population aging. The economic behavior of different age stages has a strong heterogeneity; the impacts on the economy are not the same. The strengthening of the trend of population aging is bound by a series of variables, and ultimately can affect the gross domestic product. Therefore, in this context, to study the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product is particularly important.
China is the world's most populous country, the relationship between population and gross domestic product has a crucial impact on China's future development. In the1970s, China has implemented a two crucial policies related to population and economic growth: family planning policy; reform and opening up policy. The family planning policy sharply declined the number of newborns; reform and opening up policy rapidly promote China's economy. At the same time, the improvement of the people's living standards and medical conditions make the people live longer than before. But these two policies have brought the emergence of an aging population.
This study can advance the understanding of the theory of the population aging and economic growth; deep and comprehensive understanding of the situation of China's aging population; from an empirical point of view, using time series data and the2010cross-sectional data on31regions, analyzes the relationship between population aging and gross domestic product; considerations for the development of population aging and economic growth policies.
The main variables of macroeconomics used to measure gross domestic product are consumption, saving, net exports and government purchase. First, determine the relationship of population aging and gross domestic product through the analysis of the population aging and gross domestic product value. Then studies the relationship between population aging and consumption, saving, net exports and government purchase respectively, it can further determine the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product, and provide the basis for the future development of appropriate policies.
In this study, analysis result and estimation are more accurately by using micro and macro data. Based on the theoretical research and documentation, describes the saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase feature of China. Uses relatively cutting-edge research methods, processing endogenous lagged variable system-GMM, and uses stata11.0software to estimate the relationship between population aging and saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Uses Eviews6.0software to test the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product through time-series and cross-sectional data. Therefore ensures the scientific credibility of the research.
This study passes through the following four steps:First, organizes theory and literature on the population aging, and provides theoretical support for further study and model support. Secondly, gives full description of China's current population situation. From the change in the transition of the age structure; the change in the birth rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate; the change in the population dependency ratio; the old population growth rate situation; the total fertility status; the old population sex ratio; the old population regional differences, and the median age to analyze the situation of China's population. Third, the empirical analysis the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product value, GMM estimation method analysis the relationship between the population aging and saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Give a comprehensive interpretation of the relationship between the China's gross domestic product and the population aging. Finally, Based on the foregoing analysis, gives the suggestions to achieve economic growth in the context of population aging.
Specifically, this study is divided into nine chapters:
Chapter Ⅰ, Introduction. Research design and frame parts. Introduces the background, the purpose and necessity of this study; then describes the research objectives of this article and article structure, building the analytical framework of the article; then introduces research ideas and research methods used in this study, designing the technology roadmap; finally, elaborate the innovations and the existing inadequacies of the article.
Chapter Ⅱ, related theoretical research and literature review. First, the basic theory expounded on the theory of economic growth and population studies. Followed by the related theoretical overview of the research focuses on the introduction of demographic factors, especially after the introduction of population aging factors, changes in economic growth model. Then from positive and negative impact of population aging, gives the literature review of the population aging and gross domestic product.
Chapter Ⅲ, the analysis of China's population aging situation. First introduces the basic concepts related to the population aging. Then describes the status of China's population aging. And then construct the evaluation system of the impact of population aging on economic and social development. Then, based on the fifth census and the sixth census data, using the CPPS software predicts the situation of China's population aging, forecasts the development trend of the Chinese population in2010-2050.
Chapter Ⅳ, the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product. First applying1982-2010China's population aging and gross domestic product data, using the unit root test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, error correction model, the standard deviation disturbance impact analysis and variance decomposition method does the time series analysis, highlights the time difference, to test the relationship between population aging and gross domestic product. Applying the inter-provincial cross-section data of31provinces in China in2010, using the different variance test, multiple linear regression analysis of and multicollinearity test methods, analyzes the cross-sectional data, highlights the spatial difference, to test the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product.
Chapter Ⅴ, the relationship between the population aging and saving. First, elaborates the principle of the system GMM estimation, analyzes the background of the population aging and saving. Then builds the system GMM variable and the estimated model of the population aging and saving. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and household saving rate; and there is negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the household saving rate.
Chapter Ⅵ, the relationship between population aging and consumption. First analyzes the status of the population aging and consumption, and elaborates the relevant literature. Then according to the characteristics of the population aging and consumption to select variables, builds the system GMM model. Concludes that there is a negative correlation between the population aging and economic growth. Then using the gray correlation degree analysis analyzes the population aging and the consumption structure. Concludes that different age structure gives different effects on the demand and industrial structure.
Chapter Ⅶ, the relationship between the population aging and net exports. First elaborates the research background and the literature, selects relevant variables to construct the system GMM estimation model of the population aging and net exports, the model contains time dummy variables. In conclusion, there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the net exports, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the net exports.
Chapter VIII, the relationship between the population aging and the government purchase. First, estimates the relationship between the population aging and the gross government purchase value. According to the characteristics of the population aging and the government purchase choices variables and builds the analysis model. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the gross government purchase value, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the gross government purchase value. Then estimates the relationship between the population aging and health care spending. According to the characteristics of the population aging and health care spending, selects the variables and constructs analysis model. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the health care spending, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the health care spending.
Chapter IX, suggestions and revelations. First based on the correlation test and estimation, gives reasonable and feasible suggestions for the relevant policies. Then summarizes the revelation of the population aging and gross domestic product relationship, correctly understanding and scientifically judging the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product. Finally, elaborate the future research directions of this article.
This study shows the following innovations:earlier use the data to explore the relationship of population aging and gross domestic product. On the macroeconomics point of view, GDP represented by the expenditure includes four areas:saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Discusses the relationship between population aging and the four aspects respectively. Build four conduction mechanism of saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Uses the system GMM Estimation treats the panel data. The system GMM estimation overcomes the shortcomings of the OLS and fixed effects analysis, and avoids endogenous model. Hansen test and serial correlation test ensures the reliability of the conclusions. In addition, an earlier study of the relationship between an population aging and government purchases. First, explore the population aging and the government purchase in gross value, on this basis, further study the relationship between population aging and government health spending value.
However, due to grasp of the situation, the data collection, and private ability, the article has the following inadequacies:the data is not perfect, this article only gives the population aging and gross domestic product analysis of China's31administrative districts, not includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions. Doing the GMM Estimation, selects a certain number of control variables, in order to make the model more accurate estimates. However, the control variables selected, although as far as possible the important control variables into the model, but also unable to achieve comprehensive selection. Although this will not have significant impact on the results of the study, but also should be improved. Current social conditions, higher demands on the old-age security system;4-2-1number of families increased, a higher demand for social welfare and security. These changes should be listed in the scope of the study, but this study does not make a further study.
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