摘要
根据中国加入WTO的有关承诺,我国石油市场和金融市场将逐步实现对外开放,我国石油安全本质上已经从“生产-供应”模式转变成“贸易-金融”模式,石油金融发展已成为现阶段我国市场经济改革的核心。石油金融发展的进程对于石油产业可持续发展和国家的石油安全具有重要的现实意义。本文以系统论的思想初步构建了一个石油金融系统的研究框架,并在这个研究框架之下,对我国石油金融系统的发展进行深入的研究,从传统的石油金融和现代石油金融石油两方面分析我国石油金融的现状,并通过与国际石油金融的对比中分析我国石油金融发展过程中存在的问题,结合我国石油经济与金融市场的实际情况对问题形成的根本原因进行定性分析。2004年8月25日,我国上海燃料油期货的推出是我国石油金融发展过程中的一个里程碑,文章以我国燃料油期货推出以来的市场表现为例,选择上海燃料油期货价格、华南燃料油现货价格、以新加波燃料油现货价格来表示的国际燃料油现货价格和NYMEX原油现货价格来表示的国际原油现货价格等四个变量构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用格兰杰因果检验、协整检验和脉冲响应函数等方法,研究我国燃料油期货从上市以来三年多的市场表现,对我国燃料油期货市场的价格发现功能和避险功能等方面进行深入的实证研究,并将实证研究结果与NYMEX原油期货市场的市场功能进行对比,用计量经济学方法实证了定性分析的结论。最后围绕如何加速我国石油金融发展进程的具体措施提出降低我国石油市场垄断程度以形成竞争格局;丰富和完善我国石油金融发展的途径;加强我国石油金融发展过程中的制度建设等政策建议,旨在推进我国石油金融发展,确保我国石油金融体系的资源配置功能得以发挥。
According to the promises of acceding to WTO, financial market and petroleum market of our country should be open to the world. Petroleum safety of China has essentially changed from“Production-Supply”mode into“Trade-Finance”mode. Therefore, the problem of petroleum market finance has become the core of the reform of market economy at present. The course of petroleum market finance has very realistic and important sense for the continuable development of petroleum industry and petroleum safety of our country. This paper primarily established a research frame based on system theory. And then, Under this frame, this paper expatiated on the process of petroleum market finance of our country, analyzed petroleum finance status of our country from the analyzation of traditional petroleum finance and modern petroleum finance, and qualitatively analyzed the problems in the process of petroleum market finance of our country through the contrast on the domestic and matured foreign petroleum finance process, and penetrated with the causation of the problems of our petroleum finance based on the practice of our petroleum market. On August 25, 2004, Shanghai fuel petroleum future came into the market, and it was a landmark in process of petroleum market finance of our country. So, this paper selected four variables of the closing price of Shanghai fuel petroleum future, the spot price of Huanan fuel petroleum, Singapore fuel petroleum price of PLATT’S as international spot price of fuel petroleum and NYMEX spot price of crude oil as international crude petroleum price. And set up a vector autoregression(VAR) model. And then did researches on the market operation of ShangHai fuel petroleum future, based on the vector autoregression(VAR) model, using Granger causality test, co-integration test and impulse response function to positively study on functions of the market. And then, this paper compared the results of the positive research of Shanghai fuel petroleum future market with the functions of NYMEX crude petroleum future market, and proved the results of qualitative research by positive research. At last, this paper tabled proposals on bringing in market competition, improving methods of petroleum market finance and upgrading mechanism in the process of petroleum market finance, surrounding the problem of how to accelerate the petroleum market finance, to promote steadily development of petroleum market, and enhance petroleum market safety of our country.
引文
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