中国银行业市场结构与绩效实证研究
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摘要
当今世界,经济全球化和金融一体化迅速发展,金融作为现代经济的核心,对经济的贡献越来越大,而银行作为金融体系的核心,是国家宏观调控的重要中介,对实现国民经济持续快速健康发展发挥着越来越重要的作用。银行业竞争与垄断的程度影响着银行业的绩效、服务产品的质量和创新的程度。因此,研究中国银行业市场结构和经济绩效对实现银行业的有效竞争,提高我国银行业的国际竞争力,促进经济发展,具有十分重要的意义,这已成为学术界和实务界高度关注的问题。
     本文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,分析了银行业的市场结构判断标准,通过实证分析,计算了银行业的市场份额、市场集中率、赫芬达尔指数,并分析了银行的绩效及其研究方法,计算了商业银行的收益率、纯技术效率值、技术效率值、规模效率值、配置效率值和综合效率值;同时采用经济计量的研究方法,选取我国市场份额最大的14家商业银行作为本文实证研究的样本,采用时间序列与横截面相结合的方法,运用经济计量相关估计方法,对1999-2008年间中国银行业的绩效和市场结构进行回归分析。另外,结合了DEA这一新的研究方法,对商业银行的效率进行了深入分析;当然,本文的政策建议部分侧重于规范分析方法,提出改善银行业市场结构与提高绩效的政府产业组织政策。
     具体来说,本文的研究工作主要体现在以下几个方面:一是对中国银行业市场结构进行分析。介绍了关于银行业市场结构的理论模型和银行业市场结构变迁的三个阶段历程,分析了中国银行业的市场份额,发现国有商业银行仍居于主要地位,从产业经济的角度分析了银行业的市场集中度,通过数据计算CR4和HHI指数,发现中国银行业市场近年来的集中度依然较高,垄断格局并没有发生实质性的改变,仍是由四大国有商业银行控制着整个市场。但从动态发展来看,在市场化进程中新生成的商业银行对这种高度集中的格局产生了一些冲击,使我国银行业竞争程度有所加强,我国银行业的市场结构开始由极高寡占型转变为高集中寡占型,从寡头垄断、高度集中转变为垄断竞争、适当集中。还分析了银行业的产品差异化,发现我国银行业产品差别化较小。分析了商业银行的规模经济性,发现我国商业银行表现为整体规模经济,但国有商业银行和股份制商业银行在规模经济状态和发展趋势方面表现出一定的差异,国有商业银行规模经济状态差于股份制商业银行。分析了商业银行进入与退出壁垒,并认为政策法律性壁垒是中国银行业主要的进入壁垒。另外通过研究发现,我国银行业形成寡头垄断的市场结构的原因表现为:行政垄断因素、产权制度因素、银行属性因素和政府发展因素,而主要原因在于我国转轨过程中存在的独特的行政垄断。
     二是对中国银行业市场绩效进行分析。首先,分析了国外通常采用的绩效指标——商业银行的资产收益率和资本收益率,发现我国商业银行的利润率水平仍然偏低,但从动态来看,我国商业银行的利润率水平呈先降后升的变化趋势,并且国有商业银行、股份制商业银行的利润率水平出现明显的分化。其次,用DEA方法测算了中国商业银行1999-2008年的综合效率以及具体的配置效率、技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率的变化,发现从动态的角度来看,中国商业银行的综合效率逐步提高,股份制商业银行的效率水平整体上明显优于国有商业银行。再次,分析了国有商业银行的绩效低下的原因,主要为寡头垄断的市场结构、规模不经济、自身的经营管理和外部环境因素。
     三是对中国银行业市场结构与绩效关系进行实证检验。采用时间序列与横截面相结合的方法,抽取1999-2008年的面板数据,选取商业银行的经营绩效,即资产收益率(ROA)、资本收益率(ROE)、DEA效率值(EF)为被解释变量,市场份额、市场集中率、赫芬达尔指数、GDP增长率、资本与资产比值等为解释变量,采用经济计量相关估计方法,对中国银行业市场结构与绩效关系进行回归,结果显示,市场集中度与绩效有负相关关系,即市场集中度越小,绩效会越高;国内生产总值增长率与银行绩效正相关,资本资产比率与资产收益率正相关、与资本收益率负相关。
     四是提出发挥市场结构对绩效的积极促进作用,政府的四方面政策:放松政府规制,降低进退壁垒;扶持发展中小型股份制商业银行,扩大规模经营;完善四大国有商业银行的治理机制,改进管理水平;完善规制法律法规体系,提高整体行业绩效。
     同以往的文献相比较,本文有以下几点创新之处:一是指标新,运用DEA方法测度效率值对银行绩效进行评价时,需要事先确定合理的投入和产出变量,这是正确评价银行效率的重要前提条件。但到目前为止,理论界对银行的产出变量的定义仍存在较大的分歧,本文在借鉴国内外现有成果的基础上,结合我国银行业务的特点,将银行的产出变量定义为贷款额、利润额和存款额。在计算银行综合效率时必须知道投入的价格,本文选取银行营业费用指标作为劳动力价格,即总劳动报酬支出;选取各年的一年期贷款利率作为资本的价格。二是变量新,对银行绩效的测度,一般采用利润率指标,包括资本收益率和资产收益率,并在回归中以此作为因变量,本文又增加运用DEA方法测算的、作为绩效考核指标的效率值也作为因变量,以全面考察银行的经营绩效,并以市场份额、行业集中率、赫芬达尔指数为自变量,并选取国民生产总值增长率和资本对资产的比率为控制变量,采用计量经济相关估计方法,对中国商业银行的绩效和市场结构进行回归分析。三是观点新。本文运用计量经济方法回归分析,发现银行业赫芬达尔指数与银行效率显著负相关,银行业市场集中度越高,银行的效率越低,希望结论能为提高银行业绩效提供一个新的思路。
     论文对我国银行业的市场结构与绩效进行了全面、系统的研究,期望本文能够有助于丰富和发展我国银行业的理论体系,拓宽和完善我国银行业理论的研究领域,并为我国银行业改革和金融政策的制定提供重要的参考意见。
Nowadays, with the rapid development of economic globalization and financial integration, as the core of modern economy, finance contributes to the economy more and more increasingly. As the core of finance, banks are the important agents of national macro-control, and the important means to achieve rapid and sustained and healthy development of national economy. The degree of competition between banks and monopoly affects on banks'performance, service quality and innovation. Therefore, the study on market structure and performance of banks in China has great significance to achieve effective competition in banking, improve the international competitiveness of banks and promote economic development. This has become a question of highly concen from academic and practice fields.
     In this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis are combined. It makes analyses criteria of market structure of banks, and it calculates market share, market concentration ratio and Herfindahl Index through empirical analysis. It analyzes the performance of banks and its research methods and calculates the rate of profit, economic efficiency, technology efficiency, allocative efficiency, pure technology efficiency and scale efficiency of commercial banks. At the same time, it uses econometric methods, selecting China's 14 commercial banks owning the largest market share as empirical research samples. Using the method of time series and cross section combined, and with Econometrics method, it carries on regression analysis of the relationship between the market structure and the performance from 1999 to 2008. In addition, it combines the new research methods of DEA, and analyses the efficiency of commercial banks in-depth. Of course, policy recommendations in this paper focus on the specification method, and at last it gives government's industrial organization policies to improving the structure and performance of banks.
     Specifically, this paper is mainly reflected in the following areas. Firstly, it analyzes market structure of China's banks. It introduces the theory model of market structure and the three stages of market structure of banks. It analyses market share in China's banks, and it is found that state-owned banks still live in the main. From the industrial economy point of view, it analyzes market concentration of banks. Calculating by CR4 and HHI index, we find that the degree of concentration is still high in bank market in China in recent years, monopoly never changes substantively, and the entire market is still controlled by the four state-owned commercial banks. But with the dynamic and developed perspective, the new commercial banks generated in the market process have some impact on the pattern with a high concentration ratio, and the impact has strengthened competition in the banking sector. Market structure of China's banks begins to shift from the high oligopoly to high concentration oligopoly, from the oligopoly to monopolistic competition, from high concentration to appropriate concentration. It also analyses product differentiation of banks, and it is found that product differentiation is smaller in China's banks. It analyses economies of scale of commercial banks and found that the overall economy is economy of scale of commercial banks in China. But the state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks show some differences in the economy state and development trends, state-owned commercial banks are worse than joint-stock commercial banks in economies of scale. It analyses entry and exit barriers to the commercial banks and it is found that policy barriers and legal barriers are the major barriers. Another study find the reason of oligopoly market structure of banks in China, including administrative monopoly, the property rights system, the bank's property and the government development. The main reason is the existence of the administrative monopoly through transition process.
     Secondly, it analyses the performance of China's banks. It analyzes the performance index which is used usually in abroad, Return On Asset (ROA) and Return On Equity (ROE), and it is found that the rate of profit is still low in China, but with the dynamic perspective, the rate of profit of commercial banks in China presents the variation tendency of rising after lowering, and the obvious division appears at the rate of profit among state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks. With the DEA method, it calculates the overall efficiency of commercial banks in China from 1999 to 2008, and the specific allocative efficiency, technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency change. It is fond that the overall efficiency of commercial banks is improved progressively, and the efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks is overall superior to state-owned commercial banks. It analyzes the reasons for the low performance of state-owned commercial banks, mainly oligopolistic market structure, diseconomies of scale, its management and external environmental factors.
     Thirdly, it examines the empirical relationship of market structure and performance of China's banks. It uses the method of time series and cross section combined together, collects panel data from 1999 to 2008, selects the performance of commercial banks, namely, ROA, ROE and DEA efficiency value as the explained variable, and selects market concentration ratio, HHI index, GDP growth rate and capital and assets ratio as the explanatory variable. With Econometrics method, it carries on regression analysis of the relationship between the market structure and the performance from 1999 to 2008. The results show that the degree of market concentration and performance are negatively correlated, that is, the smaller the degree of market concentration, the higher the performance will be, GDP growth rate and performance are positively correlated, capital asset ratio and ROA are positively correlated and capital asset ratio and ROE are negatively correlated.
     Fourthly, it proposes the four industrial organization policies. They are relaxing government regulation and lowering barriers to entry and exit, supporting small and medium sized joint-stock commercial banks and expanding scale of operation and reforming regulatory system, improving governance and management of the four major state-owned banks, improving the laws and regulations, and at last improving overall performance.
     Compared with the previous literature, this paper has the following innovations. First, the new index, while appraising to the performance of banks with DEA to estimate efficiency value, we need to confirm rational input and output variable in advance, and it is important precondition to evaluate the efficiency of banks correctly. But up till now, the definition of output variable to banks still has greater difference in academic fields. In this paper, drawing lessons from domestic and international existing achievement and combining the characteristic of banks, it defines the output variable of banks as loan, profit and deposit We must know the input price while calculating the comprehensive efficiency of banks. In this paper, it selects bank operating expenses index as total labor compensation expense, i.e. isprice of labor; it selects one-year lending rate as the price of capital, i.e. interest rates. Second, the new variable, Return On Asset (ROA) and Return On Equity (ROE) is used usually in abroad as performance index, and in the regression as the dependent variable. This paper adds DEA efficiency value which is the performance index as dependent variable in order to investigate the management performance of banks overall. In this paper, with Econometrics method, it selects market concentration ratio, HHI index, GDP growth rate and capital and assets ratio as the explanatory variable and carries on regression analysis to the market structure and the performance. Third, the new idea, it uses regression analysis of econometric methods, and it is found that Herfindahl Index of banks and bank efficiency are negatively correlated. The higher the market concentration is, the lower the efficiency of banks is. I hope that the conclusion provides a new way of thinking for improvement of banks'performance.
     I hope that this paper studied market structure and performance of banks comprehensively and systematicly, and can help enrich and develop the theory of China's banking system, expand and improve our banking field, and provide important reference views for China's banking reform and financial policies.
引文
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