摘要
后悔是人们在决策后常常经历的体验,由于它对人类行为具有巨大的影响和导向作用,后悔问题的研究被广泛拓展到众多领域,尤其在具有巨大不确定性的风险决策(如投资等)方面。在现实生活中,由于购房决策的高难度和复杂性,买房成为后悔研究中说明后悔现象的一个典型例子。我国近年来关于购房感受的调查也反复显示,购房者的后悔体验很普遍。但以往研究多数是考察后悔的影响因素问题(what),而对决策后悔是如何形成的(how)则很少探讨。为此,本文以购房决策为例,围绕决策后悔的特征和形成机制问题,进行了五个实证子研究。
第一,为了探讨后悔形成的机制,首先要明确令人后悔的决策结果评价是如何产生的。本文假设引发后悔的参照点并不限于决策者的外部(如未选中的更优方案),还可以来自决策者内部(如预期)。因此,进行了研究一,运用扎根理论,通过跨地区、大规模的虚拟社区中关于购房决策后悔的无干扰研究,从23个城市的623个楼盘中筛选出1106个帖子,构建了决策后悔的多重多维参照点体系,证明了引发购房者后悔的参照点主要有:内心的预期、更优而未选中的备择方案、更优的时机决策方案、更优的数量决策方案。其中,预期和更优的备择方案参照点都具有多维结构。
第二,为了更深刻地解释后悔形成的过程机理,必须把握决策后悔的内容特征与维度,并且要分析后悔感受的必要因素:归因和反事实思维的特点。本文假设后悔并不是单维的,具有多维的结构和多种类型;同样地,反事实思维也有多种类型。为此,进行了研究二,通过分类别、跨地区的32位置业者的访谈研究,建立了购房决策结果相关的归因、反事实思维和后悔的维度结构。根据反事实思维涉及的决策内容特征,它可分为抉择式和机会式两类;而根据想象中所改变的现实之特征,可分为:内指性反事实思维和外指性反事实思维两类。从后悔的内容特征角度看,决策后悔主要可以分为抉择后悔和机会后悔两种模式。从后悔的特征维度来考察,可分为:过程不当性后悔和结果差异性后悔。
在研究二中还发现,后悔的各参照点更可能是通过独立模式,而不是整合模式来影响人们对决策结果的判断,因为购房者有时会同时感到后悔和满意。
第三,由于文献研究表明,后悔同个性特征以及决策策略有密切联系,所以本文设想个体的调节聚焦倾向,以及决策中采用的策略对后悔形成机制有重要的影响作用,为此进行了研究三。通过案例研究方法,发现在面临严重不良决策结果的情境下,如果单独分析调节聚焦倾向或决策策略,则难以发现它们分别对后悔的作用规律。但是如果将个体的调节聚焦倾向和决策策略结合起来考察,则呈现出一种影响后悔的调节性匹配现象。当个体的决策策略支持其调节聚焦倾向则达成了调节性匹配,在遭遇失败的决策结果时,达成匹配的个体比不匹配的个体感到更高的决策正当性,并体验到更低程度的后悔。
第四,在前面三个研究的基础上,本文探讨后悔的形成机制,设想决策结果的负面评价是后悔的诱因,它通过归因和反事实思维的中介作用而产生了后悔。同时,针对研究三未能识别出调节聚焦倾向对后悔的作用规律,本文设想,预防聚焦的个体比促进聚焦的个体更容易感到后悔。为了验证这些问题,本文进行了研究四。通过对我国10个经济发达城市的1069份有效调查问卷,验证了设想的决策后悔形成机制。同时,研究发现不同的决策任务类型(居住或投资)在决策结果评价影响后悔的过程机制中起着调节作用,它导致了决策者对结果关注的焦点、反事实思维的特征和归因的方式产生差异。
研究四也验证了研究二中提出的后悔维度结构,证明了在购房决策的具体背景下,存在着两类后悔:抉择后悔与机会后悔;而每种类型的后悔都具有过程不当性和结果差异性两个维度。
研究四还发现,个体的调节聚焦倾向和联合决策中的冲突对后悔的形成具有重要的影响,并揭示了它们影响后悔的过程机制。预防聚焦的个体比促进聚焦的个体,感知的决策绩效显著地更低,产生的自责和反事实思维则更多,结果是更高的后悔程度。类似地,研究四也表明了联合决策中冲突水平越高,冲突解决策略的非协商性越强,则联合决策者越关注负面结果,感知的决策绩效越低,并产生了更多的自我责任归因和反事实思维,结果是更高程度的后悔。
第五,由于在前面的研究中,没有定量地检验调节性匹配对后悔形成机制的影响效应,因此进行了研究五。通过实验研究,验证了决策策略对后悔有显著的主效应,同时存在调节倾向与决策策略的交互效应:调节性匹配效应。当预防聚焦的个体采用基于理性策略,或促进聚焦的个体采用基于情感策略,就达成了调节性匹配(即个体的决策策略支持了其调节聚焦倾向)。在高冲突的联合决策情境下,预防型聚焦与妥协的冲突管理风格,或促进型聚焦与竞争的冲突管理风格,也形成了调节性匹配。达成调节匹配的个体比不匹配的个体,产生更少的反事实思维和自我责任归因,结果是更低程度的后悔。这就揭示了调节性匹配对后悔形成机制的调节作用。
最后,本文系统地归纳了以上研究的主要结论,分析了本研究的理论进展和现实意义,并指出了研究中存在的局限,同时对进一步研究方向提出了展望和建议。
Regret is commonly experienced by many people.Due to its profound impact and guiding effect on human behavior,regret theory has been applied to a variety of research topics.Characterized by high difficulty and complicated process,housing purchase decision has been used frequently as an illustration in the research of regret. Recent survey also indicated that regret was prevalent among Chinese house buyers. While the mainstream researches in this field focus on the factors that affect regret, little is known about how regret is shaped.This paper is an initial endeavor to fill this gap.From a perspective of housing purchase decision,we set out to explore the characteristics and mechanism of decision regret in five studies.
First,to understand the mechanism of regret,how the regretful evaluation of outcomes is formed should be figured out.In study 1,a survey was conducted on the basis of nation-wide,large scale virtual communities related to regret.By 1106 messages relevant to housing purchase regret screened out from 623 estates in 23 cities,we proposed a multi-dimension construct of reference point that evokes homebuyers' regret.The results indicate that reference point consists of four dimensions,including expectation,better forgone alternatives,better decision timing and better purchase quantity decision.
Second,in order to gain an insight into regret mechanism,the characteristics of regret,attribution and counterfactual thinking should be apprehended.By 32 interviews with house buyers from different regions belonging to different categories, study 2 clarified the structural dimensions of counterfactual thinking and regret. According to the decision content it involves,counterfactual thinking can be categorized as option and opportunity.On the other hand,it can also be categorized as inward counterfactual thinking and outward counterfactual thinking according to content features in mental simulation.Based on the characteristics of housing purchase regret,it can be classified into option regret and opportunity regret.It can also be classified into process unjustification regret and outcome discrepancy regret.
It was found in study 2 that reference point of regret probably impact human judgment in an independent way rather than integrated way,because some house buyers experienced regret and satisfaction simultaneously.
Study 3 was conducted to investigate the impact of a decision-maker's regulatory focus and decision strategy on mechanism of regret.The effect of regulatory focus or decision strategy on regret was not found when serious results were encountered.But the effect of regulatory fit on regret was demonstrated by case pattern matching method.Regulatory fit occurs when decision strategy sustains the decision maker's regulatory focus.When encountered by unfavorable results,people with regulatory fit feel more justification of their decisions and less regret than those without such fit.
In study 4,we proposed and tested a mechanism model of decision regret,in which unfavorable evaluation of decision outcomes evokes regret via attribution and counterfactual thinking.Based on 1069 valid questionnaires collected from 10 cities, it was verified that regret consists of two dimensions:process unjustification and result discrepancy.The proposed mechanism of decision regret was supported,and two mediating effects of attribution and counterfactual thinking in the impact of decision outcomes evaluation on regret were also demonstrated.Moreover,decision task was found to moderate the effect of decision outcomes evaluation on regret.
Study 4 also revealed that compared to individuals with promotion focus,those with prevention focus deem the decision results more unfavorably,generate more self-accusation and counterfactual thinking,and thus feel more regret.Moreover,it was found that with more conflict in joint decision and more non-negotiation in conflict settlement,decision makers will focus more on negative aspects of outcomes and consider the performance of houses more unsatisfactory.As a result,more self-accusation and counterfactual thinking is generated,and more regret is experienced.
Study 5 was carried out to quantitatively examine the effects of regulatory fit on regret.Adopting quasi-experimental method,the interactive effect(regulatory fit) between regulatory focus and decision strategy on regret was demonstrated. Regulatory fit occurs when decision strategy sustains the decision maker's regulatory focus.When individuals with prevention focus make choices through reason-based strategy,or individuals with promotion focus make choices through feeling-based strategy,regulatory fit occurs.Moreover,under the situation of high conflict in group decision,if a decision maker with prevention focus settles the conflict by concession strategy,or a decision maker with promotion focus settles the conflict by competition strategy,regulatory fit also occurs.Compared to those without regulatory fit, individuals with such fit are less likely to experience counterfactual thinking and self-blame ,leading to lower degrees of regret.Thus the moderating effect of regulatory fit on the mechanism of regret was indicated.
We concluded the major findings of the whole study.Theoretical progresses and its practical implications were discussed.Limitations and suggested possible directions for future research were also pointed out.
引文
1 预防型聚焦的个体比促进型聚焦的个体对负面的结果更敏感(参见Higgins,1998)。
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