摘要
党中央提出把大连建设成东北亚重要国际航运中心,辽宁省委、省政府着眼于辽宁振兴和新一轮对外开放的全局,也明确提出举全省之力推进大连东北亚重要国际航运中心的建设。六年来,大连市以只争朝夕的干劲,加快大连东北亚重要国际航运中心的建设步伐,港口码头、集疏运体系发展速度十分之快。而当代国际航运中心的建设,除了码头、仓储、运输条件等硬件设施的建设外,商品配送服务、信息服务、技术服务、法律服务、保险服务和金融服务等软件设施的建设也必不可少。随着大连东北亚重要国际航运中心建设进程的加快,编制大连航运指数体系,提升大连航运交易市场的功能,己成为大连市航运界人士的共识。
本论文立足于对大连航运市场的全面调查,依据大连和东北亚主要港口的实际情况,构建了大连航运指数体系。主要包括:综合运价指数、综合运力指数、航运成本指数、航运企业景气指数、航运企业家信心指数。其中综合运价指数主要包括:大连外贸集装箱运价指数、大连内贸集装箱运价指数、环渤海内支线集装箱运价指数、东北亚干散货运价指数、东北亚进口油运价指数。综合运力指数主要包括:运力静态指数、运力动态指数、运力量能指数、运力供求指数。航运成本指数主要包括:航运成本分类指数、航运成本综合指数、航运成本调整指数。航运企业景气指数主要包括:航运企业综合景气指数、航运景气扩散指数、航运景气合成指数。
文章首先分析了大连航运指数体系建立模式,根据航运指数编制的基本方法、原则以及航运指数的特点,系统而详细地提出了大连航运指数体系编制中各问题的解决方法和原则,主要包括样本航线的选择、样本船公司的选择、运价类型的确定、权重的计算、指数计算公式的选择、基期的选择及发布频率的确定等具体内容。在分析研究的基础上进行了大连航运指数的实际编制,并利用编制的结果通过结构方程模型与波罗的海干散货运价指数和中国出口集装箱运价指数进行了比较验证。
本研究成果对大连航运指数的实际编制具有较大的指导意义,文章主要用的方法有灰色关联分析、层次分析法、熵值法、结构方程模型、通径分析等,在此基础上根据实际数据模拟了指数计算过程,并利用Visual Basic编制了指数运算程序,为政府部门的指数工作提供了有力的工具。
Our government had advanced that Dalian should be built to the important international shipping center of Northeast Asia.The whole province as well as the whole city is addressing itself to the task.Six years has past,we could find that port terminal and transportation network have been heightened very fast.Nevertheless,to build a nowaday international shipping center,we have to strengthen not only the hardware facilities,such as docks,storage and transport conditions,etc.but also the software facilities,such as distribution service, technical service,information service,law service,insurance service,finance service and so on. With the quickening steps of developing Dalian to the aimed shipping center,calculating Dalian shipping indices system and promoting the function of Dalian shipping exchange have been the consensus of all people in Dalian shipping circles.
Based upon the comprehensive surveyspecial of Dalian shipping market and the condition of the ports of Dalian and Northeast Asia,according to the foundational theory for index calculation,this paper completely researches the calculation methods for DSI system. The system mainly contains colligation shipping freight index,colligation fleet capacity index, shipping cost index,climate sub-index,shipping industry entrepreneur expectation index.
Firstly,this paper summarizes the main problems that should be solved related with index calculation;according to the plentiful material and data obtained from investigation,the paper summarizes the actuality of Dalian shipping market,including the development process of service in Dalian port,ship routes,shipping companies and so on.Based on this work,according to the foundational methods,principles for index calculation and the characteristics of freight indices,the paper detailedly and systematically designs the calculation methods for Dalian shipping index system,including selecting the sample routes and the sample shipping companies,choosing the shipping price style,selecting the calculation formula and the base period,deciding the issue frequency and so on.At the same time,we weave practical system and validate the outcome between BDI and CCFI.
The result of this paper has significant instructional meanings for the practical calculation of Dalian shipping index system in the near future.The main analysis methods are Gray relational analysis,AHP,Entropy method,SEM,and Path analysis.
引文
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