摘要
我国房地产市场发展时间比较短,发展模式也与其他国家不同,很多发达国家的房地产市场经过了长期完善的发展历程,而我国房地产市场初期就遭遇了我国经济快速发展,经济体制转轨和宏观经济发展带来的外部冲击,房地产市场发展过程中出现了诸多问题,需要政府采取有效的宏观调控政策。我国政府对房地产市场进行宏观调控的实践经验并不多,房地产宏观调控政策方面的理论研究也缺乏系统性和深度。
本文以房地产宏观调控政策为研究对象,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法,综合运用政策学、系统论、博弈论、时间序列分析技术、系统动力学方法等多学科知识,结合房地产业的特点和房地产宏观调控过程中的实际需求,对我国房地产宏观调控政策运行过程进行了较为深入的分析。首先对房地产宏观调控政策运行进行了理论分析;对房地产宏观调控政策运行进行了系统分析,对运行模型系统、政策运行主客体、运行环境和运行机制进行了分析;对我国房地产宏观调控政策制定系统进行了分析,总结了我国房地产宏观调控政策6种经验模式,并建立了适合我国理想政策制定模式;对税收政策、金融政策和土地政策对房地产市场的作用机理进行了定性和定量分析;设计了房地产宏观调控政策效果综合评价模型,建立了政策影响房地产市场发展的评价指标体系,最后对政策综合评价效果进行了实证分析并提出了对策建议。具体研究内容如下:
(1)对房地产宏观调控政策相关概念进行了界定,对房地产宏观调控政策性质进行了分析;构建了由根本目标、中长期目标和短期目标构成的房地产宏观调控政策三级目标体系;构建了由经济政策、法律政策、行政政策和启发引导政策组成的房地产宏观调控政策体系;对宏观调控政策对房地产市场作用的路径进行了分析和总结,主要分析了经济政策和行政政策两大政策的影响路径;对本文研究的理论框架进行了设计,包括全文理论框架和第5章理论框架设计;对本文研究的相关理论基础进行了分析。
(2)建立了房地产宏观调控政策运行模型系统,包括总体模型、流程模型主客体模型、周期模型和作用模型;对我国房地产宏观调控政策运行主客体进行了分析,建立了房地产宏观调控政策主体之间、主客体之间的博弈模型,并进行了博弈分析;分析了我国房地产宏观调控政策的具体运行环境,包括政治环境、经济环境、社会文化环境和法律、政策环境;建立了我国房地产宏观调控政策和谐运行机制系统,进一步对该系统中的动力机制、约束机制、决策机制和调控机制进行了分析。
(3)建立了房地产宏观调控政策制定系统,并对决策子系统、信息子系统、咨询子系统和监督子系统进行了分析;对我国房地产宏观调控政策制定过程进行了分析,进一步分析了政策制定原则、政策制定影响因素、政策制定模型和目标与政策选择关系;分析了我国房地产宏观调控政策制定的6种模型:理性决策模型、渐进决策模型、理想决策模型、精英决策模型、利益集团决策模型和公共选择模型,构建了我国房地产宏观调控政策的理想制定模式:基于渐进决策、公共选择和集团利益决策模型的精英决策模式。
(4)利用房地产四象限和土地四象限模型把税收、金融和土地政策对房地产市场的作用过程进行了定性分析;建立了税收政策、金融政策和土地政策对房地产市场作用的向量自回归模型,利用脉冲响应函数方法将核心政策对房地产市场的影响效果进行了定量分析;建立了税收、金融和土地政策对房地产市场影响的误差修正模型,利用方差分解方法得出了各种政策分别对房地产市场影响的贡献度。
(5)设计了房地产宏观调控政策效果综合评价模型,建立了由12个房地产市场指标构成的房地产市场发展评价指标体系;确定了评价方法,提出了包括Z-Score方法、内插外推法和巨警界线的调控方法的指标值标准化方法,提出了层次分析法和信息熵值法组合的指标权重确定方法;利用1998-2006年我国房地产数据进行了实证分析,并对评价结果进行了分析;对1998-2006年我国主要房地产宏观调控政策进行了分析,进一步对我国房地产宏观调控政策效果进行分析并提出了针对中央政府的对策建议。
本论文对房地产宏观调控政策运行过程进行研究,对于丰富和补充房地产宏观调控政策的理论和方法、有助于提高政府部门房地产宏观调控政策的制定、实施和评价水平具有重要的理论和现实意义。
In our country, the development of real estate market is relatively imperfect due to the shorter experiencing time, and also has different development modes. The real estate markets in many developed countries have grown in slow and perfect course. But in china, the beginning of real estate market developing was accompanying with rapid economic development, there were many problems caused by external stocks that from economic system transformation and macroeconomic development. To solve these problems, government should adopt effective macro-control policy, and the reality was that the theories of Chinese real estate macro-control policies were not consummate; the Macro-control experience (that government carried out) on real estate market was also insufficient. Therefore these aspects theories were urgently needed.
In this paper, theoretical analysis and real diagnosis analysis; qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis were used to study real estate macro-control policy works. A more in-depth analysis of china's real estate macro-control policy operation mechanism was carried out by using Multidisciplinary technical knowledge such as policy science, systems theory, game theory, time series analysis technology, and combining features of the real estate industry and actual demands in real estate macro-control process. The real estate macro-control policy and Theoretical basis were summarized. Real estate macro-control policy was systematically analyzed, and subject, object, operating models, operating environment and operation mechanism of real estate macro-control policy have been systematically analyzed. Six formulation models of real estate macro-control policy was summarized and analyzed. A policy formulation model that adapt for our national conditions has been built up. Then the theory how to choose real estate macro-control policy was also analyzed. Tax policy, financial policy and land policy influence mechanisms on real estate market were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. A Comprehensive evaluation model of real estate macro-control policy was established and its validity has been demonstrated by recent data of China's real estate market. Finally, some problems during the real estate macro-control policy operations were put forward and some suggestions were given. The research contents concretely as follows:
Basic concepts about real estate macro-control policy were defined, such as Macro-control, real estate macro-control policy, Operating Mechanism. real estate macro-control policy property was analyzed. Real estate macro-control goals was summarized into Fundamental goal, long-term goal, and short-term goal, and other goals are phased goals in order to realize the fundamental goal. It is analyzed that economic policy, law policy, administration policy and inspired guide policy together come into being Chinese real estate macro-control policy system. The role path that macro-control policy affects real estate market also analyzed. At last theoretical basis of real estate macro-control policy operation and theory frame design are summarized.
Real estate macro-control policy operation system was statically and dynamically analyzed by systems theory. Real estate macro-control policy operation models were built up. The relationship between real estate macro-control policy subject and object was analyzed by game theory. Political Environment, economic environment, social and cultural environment and legal policy environment in which Real estate macro-control policy operates were summarized. At last the operation process that policy has an effect on real estate market was detailedly analyzed and six operation mechanisms were summarized.
Chinese real estate macro-control policy-making process was analyzed and real estate macro-control policy-making system was raised, and decision, information, advisory and Monitoring Subsystems constitute the policy making system. Then six policy-making models were summarized and according to Advantages and disadvantages of six models public choice model was built up based on Progressive Decision model, elite decision model and interest group decision model. In the further step real estate macro-control policy choice theory was analyzed, and the policy choice principles were raised, and factors affecting policy choice were summarized, then the policy choice model on Chinese real estate macro-control was built up, at last the complicated relations between real estate macro-control goals and different policy choice was analyzed and noted.
Based on real estate and land Four-quadrant models the influence mechanism model that tax policy, monetary policy and land policy affect real estate market was built up. The major changes of key indicators that tax, monetary and land policy brought about in real estate market were quantitatively analyzed by the vector autoregressive model and the impulse response function. The extent to which tax, monetary and land policy separately affected supply, demand and price of real estate was analyzed by error correction model and Variance decomposition method.
The comprehensive evaluation model of the effect of real estate macro-control policy, that is, housing price-development status of real estate market model was built up, and evaluation indicators system of real estate market development status was established, then the effect of this real estate macro-control policy was comprehensively evaluated by the real estate market data in china from 1998 to 2006. Then the problems of tax, monetary and land policy and the problems during policy operation were summarized, at last the problems there appeared when the government do policy-making, put the policy into action, and evaluate the policy were analyzed and some corresponding suggestions were put forward.
The author studied real estate macro-control policy operating mechanism in this paper. This paper has great theoretical and practical significance for the following reasons, first it will enrich and add real estate macro-control policy theory and methods, then it may improve the level of the government' policy-making policy implementation, and policy evaluation, third it can make the government solve the problems of real estate market in better way, at last it helps real estate market sustained, steady and healthy.
引文
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