购房置家行为预测
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摘要
随着人类社会文明的发展,衣食住行都被赋予多样化的附加内涵,房子也不例外。房子并非完全作为只要满足生存需求的统一化产品,而是基于符号完善理论、延伸自我理论等与认同有紧密联系,针对移民的购房行为研究也发现不同源文化的移民对购房行为有不同的偏爱,因此本研究将使用心理学的测量方法来量化人们的购房行为,尝试从经济学之外的心理变量预测购房行为以及探索购房行为与认同等的关系。本研究的具体思路为:首先通过投射测验探索与购房相关的符号表征以及购房心理基本结构,第二步按照严格的心理学方法编制有效可靠的心理测量工具,第三步通过内隐联想测验探索购房行为消费者估价内隐层面的特点,第四步实地考察具有特殊走婚文化的摩梭人民居估价特点,并与前述三个阶段的研究结果进行对比。全部研究主要涉及4种研究方法,包含2个投射测验,4个问卷编制,2个内隐联想实验,以及针对19个摩梭家庭的个体访谈。主要研究结论如下:
     (1)两个投射测验结果显示,在购房行为的符号表征方面:人们对在经济发达的繁华地段的主人公赋予更多的竞争性特质,对在偏远地段置家的被试则没有;对购房/建房置家的女性主人公赋予更多的独立性特质,男性则没有。在人们对购房行为的消费者估价方面:购房行为会带来社会性价值,情感性价值,功能性价值,经济价值等积极估价,但同时也会带来经济拮据,束缚事业等消极估价。
     (2)运用心理学的研究方法,基于前述投射测验结果,编制了购房行为问卷调查和自我评价量表,纵容取向特点量表,计划行为理论三要素量表,购房行为消费者估价量表。其中购房行为问卷调查包含购房目标选择与购房行为执行两个主要方面;自我评价量表包含竞争性和独立性两个维度;纵容特点量表包含休闲时间重要性和生活控制感两个维度;购房行为消费者估价量表包括社会性价值,自我情感性价值,消极影响估价,他人情感价值,制度条件性价值,功能性价值以及消极功能估价共七个维度。各量表都具有良好的信效度指标,可以作为之后研究的主要工具。
     (3)购房行为问卷调查结果发现不同的购房目标选择指标之间存在复杂的互补关系,人口学变量也对购房目标的选择有着重要的影响。具体为:将购房目标定位二手房的被试同时牺牲了市内地段的优越,单层房屋面积更小以及需要更长的还贷时间,从而换来将该房子在省域方面的高得分;离开出生地所在省份迁徙到工作地省份安家的被试都是选择在省域以及城市层面经济更为发达,购房成本更高的地方购房安家,而这种迁徙通常要付出市内购房地段的牺牲;个人收入水平以及家庭收入水平的增加意味着省域、城市地段选址得分的增高;受教育水平高的被试多选择省内较繁华的城市安家;从小成长在农村环境的被试比从小成长在城市、镇环境的被试选择在市内较为偏远的地方安家,购房面积也相对较小;购房时间与结婚有着密切关系,80%的被试都选择在结婚前后的7年内购房。
     (4)购房行为消费者估价量表得分特点分析显示,购房行为消费者估价量表中各维度得分大体趋势为:自我情感价值>功能性价值>社会价值>他人情感价值>制度条件性价值>消极影响估价>消极功能估价。其中,两个消极估价维度得分与中值没有显著差异,其他维度得分都显著大于中值4;女性比男性在自我情感价值和功能性价值方面得分要高,在消极影响估价方面则要低;越多的卷入亲密关系,人们越倾向于给予购房更高的估价(社会性价值,自我情感价值,制度条件性价值,功能性价值);受教育程度越高,被试对购房行为的社会性价值和制度性条件价值估价越低;个人收入越高,被试对购房行为的社会性价值和制度性条件价值估分越高,对消极影响估价得分越低。对于估价量表中的主副对题统计结果显示,人们对购房所带来的积极预期——尤其是购房对孩子教育的积极影响——有着很高程度的认同,并认为这种预期对其非常重要;与之相对应的,人们较少认可购房会带来可能的束缚感等消极后果,而即便赞同这种消极后果,他们也觉得这结果对其不甚紧要,其中主副题得分对比最为强烈的题项为:大部分人报告购房确实会使其经济拮据,但他们却最不在乎这种经济拮据。
     (5)运用关系取向、长期取向、自编纵容取向特点量表,自我评价量表,计划行为理论量表,以及消费者估价量表分别从其对购房目标选择的影响,以及其对购房行为执行的影响两个角度来探索其对购房行为的预测效力,最终根据统计结果绘制购房行为预测模型。模型显示,长期取向,服从规范等文化价值取向会通过消费者估价,自我评价等变量影响被试购房目标的选择,其中最具有变通性的购房目标指标是房子面积及其在市内的地段得分——人们在预期购房会带来经济拮据的消极影响时会优先牺牲房子的空间面积以及其在市内地段的位置;认为自己更优秀更有竞争力的人更多选择高层住宅,并且更愿意将房子购置在靠近市中心位置。另一方面,长期取向,服从规范,纵容特点等文化价值取向变量会通过计划行为理论三要素对购房行为的执行产生影响,而对购房具有更积极的态度,受到更大社会常模压力的人会更快的购房,对购房行为知觉控制能力更强的人会预期更短的还贷时间。
     (6)基于前述研究结果,设计了购房行为的内隐积极估价和内隐消极估价两个内隐联想实验。内隐积极估价实验结果显示人们确实对购房存在内隐积极估价;内隐消极估价实验假设末得到证实,人们完全不存在对购房的内隐消极估价。使用购房行为两个内隐估价值与其他外显变量做相关分析,结果发现购房行为内隐估价值与外显消费者估价完全没有显著关系,反而与自我评价量表竞争性中心化得分呈显著正相关,与独立性中心化得分呈显著负相关。总之内隐层面人们对购房也是呈完全的积极态度,但它与外显层面的购房行为消费者估价有着不同的心理结构,更多是一种和自我评价紧密相联的人格结构。
     (7)前述研究结果中表明购房和结婚,和家庭结构的变化密不可分。基于此,对有着独特走婚习俗与家庭结构的摩梭人民居价值估价进行了考察,以探索是否不同的家庭结构文化会使得居所对居者有不同的估价。结果显示摩梭人的民居不具有他人情感价值,其建房和结婚也并无关系,其居所有其特有的文化认同功能,但在功能性价值以及社会性价值方面和主体研究有着相同的结果。
     总之,本研究从心理学的角度详细探讨人们认为购房的意义,填补了从房价高到政府应该控制房价之间的一个逻辑空缺,并且初步从心理学角度探讨了对购房行为具有显著预测力的心理学变量,为从心理学层面引导人们的购房行为提供了有力的数据支持,也为研究文化对购房行为的影响提供了视角。
Clothes, food, transportations and housing don't just meet people's physical need since the economy and human culture have developed so much. For the housing issue, house is not only for living, but also be a symbolic identity pesession. Besides, there are researches which have found that immigrants from different cultures have different homeownership rates. In this research, we tried to quantize people's homeownership behavior, and predict it from a psychological perspective. Our researches follows four steps:first, two projection tests were conducted to explore what the house can symbolize and what buying a home will bring to people; second, psychological scales were created and be used to conduct researches in the following; third, two implicit association tests were designed to explore how people value buying or renting in the implicit level; fourth, research into how the Mosuo People value their house and compare it with earlier research result basing on Han people. Four research method were used, including two projection tests, four scales be created, two implicit association test and deep interview to19Mosuo family.
     After a series of scientific work, our research:
     (1) Design two projecting test to explore how the housing choice can stand for people's personality traits and to explore what people expect homeownership will bring to them. The results show:first, people who choose to have a home in a metropolitan was believed to be more competent, and woman who choose to have her own home was seen as Independent. Second, people expect owning a home will bring them more dignity, which is the social identity value, more secure feeling, which is the hedonic value, a place for them to arrange their life easier, which is functional value, and more economic profit; at the same time, buying a house might causing more pressure in there economic and impede their career developing in some way.
     (2) According to the mature psychology research method, we developed the Homeownership Behavior questionnaire, Self-evaluation scale, Indulgence orientation scale, Theory of Planning Behavior scale, and Homeownership consumer value scale. Homeownership Behavior questionnaire was made up of home choice and homeownership behavior intention; Self-evaluation scale was made up of competent dimension and independent dimension; Indulgence orientation scale was made up of importanty of leisure time and control over life; Homeownership consumer value scale was made up of social value dimension, self-hedonic dimension, negative consequence dimension, others-hedonic dimension, policy conditional value dimension, functional value dimension and negative belief value dimension. All measures have good reliability and validity, which are qualified to be used in the following researches.
     (3) For the Homeownership behavior questionnaire, there is a trade off between housing quality and housing position:people who would like to choose a secondhand apartment usually also choose a position a little far from downtown, a smaller square, long mortgage time and all of these was trade off to get a high score in the province rating; people who leave their hometown and choose to buy their home where they work are usually moving to a more developed province and city, and this movement also requires they buy a home a little far from downtown; personal income and family income are both indicators might lead to high score in province position and city position; more education usually lead to high score in the city position; comparing with people who live in the urban area, people who live in the rural area usually buy their home a little further from downtown place, and have smaller area; at last, buying a home always show together with getting marriage,80%people choose to buy their home around their marriage.
     (4) For the Homeownership consumer value scale, there is a sequence in different dimensionscores:selfhedonic value> fuctional value> social value> others-hedonic value> policy conditional value> negative consequence> negative belief value. Within the sequence, negative consequence and negatie belief value dimensions were not significant different from the scalar midpoint2while all other dimensions higher than4. Women score higher in self-hedonic and fuctional value dimension than men, while lower in negative consequence dimension; the deeper intimate relationship people were involved, the more positive consumer value they gave to homeownership(including social value, self-hedonic value, policy conditional value, and fuctional value); the more education people have, the lower score on social value dimension and policy conditional value; higher personal income indicated higher social value, higher policy conditional value, and lower negative consequence. According to the pair items in the consumer value scale, people agree with the benefits of homeownership very much, especially on the benefits of children's education, which are very important to them; at the same time, people don't agree about the negative consequence of homeownership very much, and even they do agree on this issue, it doesn't matter very much to their lives. The most dramative example for this is that most people agree that buying a home will make them suffer from economic shortage, but economic shortage is the least thing they care.
     (5) Using culture value scales, self-evaluation scale, indulgence orientation scale, TPB scale and Homeownership consumer value scale, we explores how they predict peoples'homeownership behavior, including how people choose where and what kind of home to buy and when to buy. A model was drawn based on the data analysis result. According to the model, long-term orientation, Conformity to norms will predict on homeownership consumer value significantly, then consumer value and self-evaluation can predict on people's housing choice directly. The most heterogeneous homeownership choice index is the area of apartment and it location within the city:they trade off these when they think they will have an economic crisis, and they choose the multi-levels residence and close to downtown position when people feel they are competent. On the other side, long-term orientation, conformity to norms and indulgence orientation also have significant prediction on the TPB variables. At last, more positive attitude toward homeownership, higher perceived social norms pressure will make people start to pay their housing mortgage earlier, while higher perceived control predict shorter mortgage time.
     (6) According to what we have found in the homeownership consumer value scale, two Implicit Association Test was designed:One is for the positive homeownership IAT effect, the other is for the negative homeownership IAT effect. Result of experiment one shows that people do perceived homeownership to be good in the IAT level, while result of experiment two didn't support its hypothesis but get another positive homeownership IAT effect only smaller than experiment one. In all, there is no negative IAT effect for homeownership in both experiments. The correlation between IAT effect value and other measures shows that there are no significant relation between IAT values and the Homeownership consumer value, but significantly correlate with self-evaluation. We think this indicated that the implicit homeownership value is totally different psychological construct from the explicit measures, the former is more like a personality traits which are close to self-evaluation while the later is a conscious judgment.
     (7) In the projection test and survey research, we found that homeowhership was always connected with marriage and the transition of family structure. While the Mosuo people don't have a formal marriage like Han people, and they have much bigger family. Concerning to these differences, we went to Yunnan Province to explore whether they develop some different value over they residence. According to what we found, the Mosuo people didn't build their house to please their mate or other people, so there is no others-hedonic value, they didn't change their family structure immediately after marriage, and the housing has cultural identity value for them. Except for these, Mosuo houses also serve for the functional value (they must) and social value.
     For now, people are arguing that the housing price is too high and the government should figure out how to lower the housing price, but there is a problem in the logic that high housing price should go down:do we have to buy our home? Our research fills this gap by using psychological method to quantify people's homeownership behavior and their consumer value. Besides that, we try to do some prediction from the psychological perspective, which open the door of helping people buy their home properly and explore why people from different culture background have different homeownership rates.
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