摘要
跟驰和换道行为是影响车辆运行安全性的重要因素，也是目前驾驶行为和车辆主动安全领域的研究热点。通过车辆跟驰与换道行为建模，分析车辆运行安全特性，构建车辆运行安全预警系统，并应用于道路系统安全评估与预测，对解决自动驾驶行车安全和跟驰效率、提高道路交通安全都具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
本文依托国家自然科学基金项目“车辆道路协同安全状态演进”和“车辆跟驰的分子动力学解析及其模型研究”课题，应用分子动力学系统分析车辆的跟驰特性，建立基于需求安全距离的跟驰模型；对车辆运行过程中的跟驰-换道行为进行分析建模，界定了跟驰-换道安全区域；最后对车流运行安全进行了稳定性分析。本文研究工作包括以下几个部分：
1.驾驶行为特性和车辆的跟驰特性分析。从分子动力学的角度，系统阐述了车辆跟驰的“低温”可“压缩”性和“高温”可“膨胀”性两种自然状态；提出了跟驰需求安全距离，从车队行进过程中车辆前向需求安全距离，侧向需求安全距离和要求安全距离三个方面分析车辆跟驰的需求安全特性，引入距离需求饱和系数对动静态需求安全距离进行定量建模与分析。
2.建立基于需求安全距离的分子动力学跟驰模型。应用分子动力学对车辆跟驰特性进行研究，探索构建车辆跟驰的需求安全距离及其应用模型；基于刺激-反应模型，引入距离差项、速度差项和预测项建立多刺激分子跟驰模型，赋予驾驶员反应权重，运用数学演绎方法，推导出驾驶员对各种刺激反应同向性的状态方程。从纵向间距和速度两个方面分析了侧向需求安全距离对车辆跟驰行为的影响作用，构建侧向需求安全距离模型。
3.车辆跟驰-换道的运行安全特性研究。基于车辆换道的动力学特性分析，根据换道过程中避免碰撞的条件，建立具体换道场景中的临界安全距离定量模型；在对应用模型进行仿真分析的基础上，界定了安全区域和非安全区域；仿真分析表明，通过在换道前调整速度和纵向间距，车辆可以减小换道过程中碰撞的可能性，研究成果可为自动换道辅助系统提供理论基础。
4.车流运行安全稳定性分析。基于分子动力学理论，以平衡状态的车队为研究对象，采用微扰法从微观和宏观两方面对交通流进行稳定性分析。建立了基于需求安全距离的微扰跟驰模型；应用Matlab对微扰法研究结果进行数值仿真分析，得出了影响交通流稳定性和运行安全的因素，将为提高道路通行能力和交通运行安全提供理论依据。
Car following and lane changing behaviour are two factors influencing vehicleoperating safety，which have become an important content of drive behavior andvehicle active safety at present. Carrying out safety characteristics analysis forvehicle operating based on following and changing models, and structuring safetywarning system in vehicle operating applied into safety assessment and predictionfor road safety system, that has important theoretical value and practical significancein the aspects including solving the autonomous driving safety, following efficiencyand improving road safety.
In this thesis, based on the National Natural Science Fund project:"State ofevolution for cooperative vehicles-infrastructure safety" and " Molecular dynamicsanalysis and the model of car following ", some critical issues have been given indeep study. Car following characteristics is analyzed using molecular dynamics,car-following model based on required safety distance is established; lane changingbehavior is analyzed, critical safety distance model is set up, and safety erea isdefined for lane changing; the stability of traffic flow operating safety is analyzed.
The research of this dissertation can be summarized as following aspects:
1. Analysis on driver behavior characteristics and the car-following behaviourare carried out. Based on molecular dynamics, the two nature state of car followingare systematically elaborated in car following, the state of "compression" in the "lowtemperature" and the state of "expansion" in the "high temperature"; and thenrequired safety distance is put forward, required safety characteristics is naalyzedfrom three aspects including front prior required safety distance, lateral requiredsafety distance and required safety distance, distance demand saturation coefficient isintroduced to quantitatively analyze and modeling dynamic and static required safetydistance.
2. Car-following model of molecular dynamics is set up based on required safetydistance. Molecular dynamics was taken to analyze car following behavior and themolecular car following model with multiple stimulus is established. Based onstimulus-response model, giving the reaction weight to the items of distancedifference, velocity difference and prediction, using mathematical deduction method, the state equation is set up making known the drivers' response to various stimuli. Theinfluence on car following of lateral required safety distance is analyzed from theaspects of longitudinal distance and the speed, and the model of lateral requiredsafety distance is set up.
3. The dynamic characteristics of lane changing is analyzed, the conditionsavoiding the collision was studied at the lane changing process, the quantitativemodel of the criticality safety distance is developed in the concrete lane changingscene, simulation analysis is carried out on the model, on the basis of which definesthe safety area and no-safety area. Results show that by adjusting speed andlongitudinal spacing before lane changing, vehicles can reduce the possibility ofcollision. The research results can provide theoretical basis for automatic lanechanging auxiliary system.
4. Based on the molecular dynamics theory, taking balance motorcade as theresearch object, the perturbation method is used to analyse the stability of traffic flowfrom the microcosmic and macroscopic aspects. Perturbation-following model is setup based on the required safety distance. Numerical simulation analysis is carried outapplying Matlab on the research conclusion of the perturbation method, the factorsaffecting stability of traffic flow and traffic security are obtained. The results havegreat significance for improving traffic capacity and road safety.
引文
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