摘要
公交站点的车辆停靠组织优化是公交运输管理与规划理论的重要组成部分，它对于提高公交系统内部的运行效率以及公交服务水平具有重要意义。随着公共交通规模的不断扩大，公交站点的排队及拥堵现象日益突出，由此引发的路网拥堵和公交服务水平低下都是目前急需解决的问题。
公交站点拥堵的根本原因是供需不平衡，只有实施更加精细化的公交车辆停靠组织管理才能有效解决这一问题，而这一工作的前提是要对公交站点运行效率进行客观评价。为此，本文针对现有站点运行效率计算方法的不足，并结合我国常规公交系统中出现的问题，在公交站点车辆运行及影响区域交通特性、公交站点运行效率计算模型、公交站点停靠组织优化方法等方面进行了相关研究与探讨，形成了系统、科学的公交站点车辆停靠组织优化技术体系。论文完成的主要工作及取得的重要科研成果概括如下：
（1）公交站点车辆运行特性及影响区域交通特性
从概率统计和理论分析角度分析了公交站点车辆到达特征函数，使用实际调查数据标定了公交站点车辆停靠时间的理论计算模型，并对其概率分布函数进行了拟合，得到了公交站点车辆到达函数和站点服务时间的理论表达和概率统计函数。通过分析公交站点处社会车辆和公交车辆的相互影响特性，分别建立了直线式和港湾式公交站点影响下的路段通行能力计算模型，并使用VISSIM仿真数据验证了模型的有效性。
（2）公交站点运行效率计算模型
使用时空分布图分析了公交车辆在公交站点的服务过程，并在综合考虑站点排队概率和停靠时间分布的基础上，提出了直线式和港湾式公交站点的通行能力计算模型。分析了公交站点的排队模型，将嵌入式马尔科夫链和Z-变换方法应用到传统的排队论模型中，推导了公交站点在平稳状态下的平衡分布函数，建立了直线式和港湾式公交站点的延误及排队长度计算模型；最后，分别使用实测数据和VISSIM仿真数据对模型有效性进行了检验。本文提出的模型能够根据实际公交站点的车辆到达和停靠时间分布参数，确定不同位置和不同时段的通行能力和延误，为公交站点运行效率评价提供基础。
（3）公交站点车辆停靠组织优化方法
针对不同公交站点的实际情况，从提高公交站点供给效率和降低停靠需求频率两方面去研究站点运行效率的提高对策。在提高供给效率方面，提出了设置分离式站台情况下的公交线路分配模型；在降低需求频率方面，首先研究以分离不同出行OD乘客为目标的单线路公交车辆跳站运行优化方法，进而构建了以缓解站点拥堵为目标的多线路公交跳站运行优化模型。最后，以杭州市天目山路-环城北路为研究对象，分别设计分离式多站台公交线路分配方案、单线路公交车辆跳站运行方案和多线路公交车辆跳站运行方案，并分析设计方案的应用效果，验证了模型的有效性。
最后，对论文的研究进展及主要成果进行总结，并提出研究过程中存在的主要问题以及下一步需要深入探索的内容。
The optimization for dwelling scheme of buses is an important part of the urban transportationplanning and management theory. And it is an effective way to improve the operating efficiencyand service level of public transit. In recent years, with the rapid development of public transport,bus stops face increasing pressure especially during peak hours and serious traffic congestionoccurs frequently, which decrease the service level of public transit.
The fundamental reason for the above problems is that bus demand exceeds the capacity ofthe bus stops, resulting in some buses waiting in the travel lane until the buses occupying the berthentrance. There is an urgency to systematically study and assess the operating features of bus stops,which will provide basis for detailed planning and management of bus stops and bus operation.Therefore, in view of the shortcomings of current studies on the calculation of operating efficiencyof bus stops, this paper conducted the related studies on the characters of bus operating at stops,the regional traffic characteristics affected by stops, the calculation of operating efficiency, andthe optimization methods for dwelling scheme of buses aiming at the current status of the bus.Finally, a systemic and scientific subarea partition system is developed. The main research workand production completed in this paper are summarized as follows.
(1) The characters of bus operating at stops and traffic characteristics of regionalaffected by stops
The function of bus arrived at stops is analyzed from the point of theory and probabilitystatistics. The calculation model of dwell time is calibrated using the actual survey data, and itsprobability distribution functions is fitted. The vehicle operating characteristics is analyzed withinbus influence area for each type of bus stop. On this basis, a method of computing the capacity ofroadway links is developed using queuing theory and gap acceptance theory, and the validity ofthe models are verified by VISSIM simulation.
(2)The calculation of operating efficiency of bus stops
The servicing process of buses is analyzed at the on-line stops with the trajectories aiming atthe current status of the bus. On this basis, the method of computing on-line bus stop and bus baycapacity are developed, which considers both the queue probability, the dwell time distributionand the time of waiting for a gap in the traffic stream at the curb lane. The queuing model of busstops are analyzed, and the equilibrium distribution function are proposed by using the embeddedMarkov chain and Z-transform method to the traditional model of queuing theory in the steadystate. The calculation models of bus delay and queue length are derived at stops and bays. Finally,the proposed models are validated using field-measured and simulated data. With these models thecapacity and delay gain are easily assessed knowing the characteristics of the dwell timedistribution, the queue probability and traffic volume at curb lane in different locations anddifferent periods. It can provide basics for the efficiency evaluation of bus stops.
(3) The optimization methods for dwelling scheme of buses
For the actual situation of different bus stops, the measures of improving operating efficiencyare studied from two aspects of decreasing supply efficiency and reducing demand frequency. Atthe respect of decreasing supply efficiency, the bus line assignment model to divided dual-berthstops is developed. At the respect of reducing demand frequency, the single line bus skip-stopoperation optimization method firstly is studied in order to separate different passengers of travelO-D, and then the multi-line bus skip-stop operation optimization method is proposed with thegoal of easing congestion of stops. At last, the Tian-mu-shan Road of Hangzhou city is used as anexample. The bus line assignment program, single line bus skip-stop operation scheme and multi-line bus skip-stop operation scheme are designed respectively used proposed methods. Resultsshow that the optimization scheme can improve the operating efficiency of studied road.
At last, the research contents in this paper are concluded and the innovative points aresummarized. Then the shortcomings of correlation degree models are analyzed and the followingresearch plan is provided.
引文
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