摘要
随着物流金融学科的快速发展,如何将金融业、林业产业与现代物流业进行结合,促进现代林业产业的发展,成为当前的一个研究热点。林产品物流仓单质押商业模式的出现,有效满足了各方的需要。在这一新的业务模式中,风险控制是至关重要的。本文以系统论为基础,对林产品物流仓单质押系统风险进行全面深入的研究,主要的工作总结如下：
1.从系统论的角度对林产品物流仓单质押系统风险进行全面研究,分析了林产品物流仓单质押系统风险的特征,构建了风险分析框架与流程。对风险的分析包括风险因素和风险两个方面,其中,风险因素包括外部环境风险因素和内生风险因素。虽然林产品物流仓单质押系统中的风险很多,但主要的风险有林产品企业信用风险、质押商品质量风险、质押商品监管风险、仓单风险、林产品企业成本风险等。
2.构建了林产品物流仓单质押风险的系统动力学模型。通过仿真分析得出,系统总的风险在早期呈现不稳定性,随着时间的推移,风险呈现稳中有降的趋势,并且到后期维持在可控的较低水平。在几个主要的风险中,林产品企业信用风险、质押商品质量风险、质押商品监管风险等,在早期呈现出波动性,然后保持稳定下降的态势。仓单风险维持在稳定的低风险状态,但却是十分重要的风险。林产品企业的成本风险,呈现中等水平,且保持稳定下降的趋势。
3.应用委托代理理论研究林产品物流仓单质押系统的质量风险控制问题,并分别建立了选择第三方物流企业的信息辨识模型和林产品经营企业执行过程中的质量风险控制模型。通过建立第三方物流企业和林产品经营企业的收益函数,对第三方物流企业和林产品经营企业的策略进行了分析,并运用极大值原理求出了第三方物流企业选择投机、不投机和选择性投机三种情况下,林产品经营企业的质量风险控制问题的最优解。
4.以实物期权理论为基础对林产品物流仓单质押系统中林产品企业的成本风险进行研究。在对不确定性与实物期权的关系进行阐述的基础上,提出了用实物期权来解决不确定性问题的一种思路。针对林产品物流仓单质押系统的特点,分析了系统中的各种不确定性,以及这些不确定性可能带来的期权价值的特性。以人造板企业的成本风险控制为例,规划了林产品物流仓单质押系统风险控制的基本框架,包括风险分析、实物期权识别、实物期权设计、实物期权的实施、有效性分析和绩效评价等几个方面。
With the rapid development of logistics finance, it is hot research theme on how to connect the finance industry, forestry and modern logistic then to promote the growth of the modern forestry. The emerging of the commercial mode of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products satisfies the needs of all parts. It is significant to control the risk in this new mode. This thesis, based on the system theory, takes an overall and deep research on the risk of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products. The major work includes the following steps.
Firstly, this paper makes a comprehensive research on the risk of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products from the angle of system theory. It analyzes the features of the risk of warehouse receipt pledge system in forest products and establishes an outline and procedures of risk analysis. The risk analysis contains two sides, risk factors and risk type. Risk factors include the exotic environment factors and interior factors. Though the number of warehouse receipt pledge system in forest products is numerous, the main are the risk of credit of forestry companies, quality of the impawned products, overseeing the impawned products, warehouse receipt, and the cost of forestry enterprises.
Secondly, the system dynamics model for forest products logistics warehouse receipt pledge was constructed. The total risks of the system appeared unstable in early stage, As time passed, the risks represent stable with a slight decline, and to maintain the late in the controllable low by simulation analysis. In major risks, such as the risk of credit of forestry companies, quality of the impawned products, overseeing the impawned products, in the early stage showed fluctuation changes and keep steadily declining trend. The risk of warehouse receipt stay low and important stage. Futhermore, The cost risk of forest products enterprise which present the medium level and keep steadily declining.
Thirdly, in this thesis, agent theory was applicated to forest products logistics warehouse receipt pledge system for the control of quality risk. Then, established information identification model to select the third-party logistics enterprise and the control of quality risk model in implementation process of forest products enterprise management separately. Through create profit function between the third-party logistics enterprise and forest products company, and analyzed it. using maximum principle to get the optimum solution for the control of quality risk in forest products enterprise under three conditions which third-party logistics enterprise to choose the speculation, not speculative or selective speculative.
At last, Based on real options theory,the cost risks of forest products companies,which existed in logistics warehouse receipt pledge system was studied.On the basis of elaboration on realationship of uncertainty and real option, a new approach adopting of real option is proposed to solve uncertainty problem.Serval uncertainties with the features of option value are analyzed on the basis of characteristic of logistics warehouse receipt pledge system.A example of cost risk controls in wood-based panel industry is studied to give a fundamental framework of logistics warehouse receipt pledge system of forest products,which covers aspects such as risk analysis,real options identification,real options design and implementation of real options, effectiveness analysis and performance evaluation.
引文
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