摘要
我国不仅森林资源匮乏，而且木材资源长期存在巨大供需缺口，为了解决生产的地域性和季节性与需求的分散性、必须性之间的矛盾、木材的供应时间与需求时间上存在着矛盾，将因矛盾而起的巨大物流量转化为经济效益，就必须发展林业企业，提高林产企业自身经济利益。
本课题研究木材消耗结构的发展规律和与林业产业结构之间的关系，构建木材消耗结构模型、消耗结构变动系数以及运用马尔科夫链方法预测福建省木材消耗结构在未来市场达到稳态时消耗比重，以福建省2001-2009年的林木资源消耗量为例，将产出的林木资源总量作流向和消耗结构分类，深入分析福建省内市场对于林木资源的需求结构和森林的产出结构后进行定量分析并转化为标准木材消耗量构建基础数据，表明木材资源消耗数量和比例关系，作为林产企业的市场需求分析。首次提出结合逆向物流的绿色供应链的现代物流企业管理技术引入到传统林业企业中，以福建省建阳市为研究对象，通过木材消耗结构研究方法对一季度以内的林产品数量进行分析并换算成标准木材消耗结构总量，以这个数据为基础，模拟建立综合性的木材物流配送中心，采用局部线性回归估计、N-W核回归估计、只有一个修复期的库存控制策略三个方法客观地对木材物流配送中心安全库存点进行预测，计算出木材物流配送中心的安全订货期。
研究结果表明：福建省从2001-2009年里林业产业结构不断优化和重新分配木材资源，将木材资源消耗重点从木制品中木制卫生筷子不断转向纸类、人造板等龙头加工业。福建省市场在马尔科夫预测是在不出现重大事故前提下按照现在的方向发展至稳定状态时，福建省木材消耗结构的四大类产业稳态时原木、人造板、木制业和纸类分别为：30.48%，14.51%，31.65%，23.36%，为福建省木材消耗结构调整提供理论依据。而针对建阳市的研究结果为：局部线性回归估计：x073天； N-W核回归估计：x176天；只有一个修复期的库存控制策略T*72天，表明无论是从图形波动程度和实际预测效果，还从模型本身参数个数上来看，局部线性回归估计都优于N-W核回归估计和只有一个修复期的库存控制策略，所以该方法可以提供更为精确的安全库存点来制定木材库存策略，优化决策中的各项指标，在满足市场木材消费需求的前提下，制定合理的管理方案，最大化降低物流成本，实现通过统计模型客观地对物流配送中心库存信息智能化管理提供理论依据。
Our country is not only deficient in forest resources, moreover, there is a huge gap betweendemand and supply of timber resources for a long time, in order to solve contradictions betweenthe production(regional and seasonal),the demand(dispersive and necessary) and the time(supplyand demand of wood), the huge logistics quantity which due to contradiction must be convertedinto economic benefits and forestry enterprises must be developed for improving its owneconomic benefits.
This project is to research the development rules of wood consumption structure, and therelationship between wood consumption structure and forestry industrial structure. In addition,forecasting the proportion of wood structure consumption when the future market reach steadystate in Fujian province through the construction of the wood consumption structure model and thevariation of consumption structure coefficient along with the Markov chain method. This papertakes the forest resources consumption of Fujian province from2001years to2009years as anexample, classifies the gross output of forest resources by structure of flowing and consumptionand analyses the demand and output structure of forest resources in market of Fujian provincedeeply, then constructs the basic data by means of converting demand and output structure tostandard wood-consumption structure quantitatively, so this paper could show the relationshipbetween the amount and proportion of the wood-resources consumption and do analyses for themarket consumption of forestry enterprises. This research is the first to propose applying themanagement and technology of modern-logistics enterprises which combine with GWSCM-RL totraditional forestry enterprises by using wood logistics theory. Take JianYang in Fujian provinceas research object, in addition, analyses the amount of forest product within a quarter and convertit into the gross wood-consumption of standard structure by using the method of woodconsumption structure, then base on this data, the establish of comprehensive wood logisticsdistribution center could be stimulated. Finally, this paper forecasts the safety stock-points inwood-logistics distribution center by using three methods which are the local linear regression,N-W nuclear regression estimation and inventory control strategy (only one repair-period),moreover, works out the security order-period of wood-logistics distribution center.
Results show that, in order to turn the major wood consumption from wooden chopsticks inthe category of wood ware to the processing industry of paper and artificial slabs, optimizations offorestry industry structure and reassignment of wood resource has been executed by Fujianprovince from2001to2009. On the condition that no grave accident happens, Markov predictionshowed that the four major parts of the wood consumption, logs, artificial slabs, wood wares andpaper, account for30.48%,14.51,31.65%, and23.36%of the wood consumption structure,respectively when the market advances to the stable state on its current path. It’s referential foradjusting the wood consumption structure in Fujian province. Results of the research takenJianYang as sample were: in the local linear regression estimation: x0=73days, in the N-W kernel regression estimation: x1=76days, and in the inventory control strategy with single reconstructionphase: T*=72days.It’s inferred that local linear regression estimation performs better than theother two approaches, no matter from the aspect of the graphics fluctuation extent, practicalprediction, or the number of the parameter of the model. This approach may provide more precisesafety stock points to draft lumber inventory strategy, optimize figures in the strategy, establishsuitable managing plans, minimize the logistics cost, and provide objective theoretical bases forintelligent management of the inventory of distribution center.
引文
注：①贾治邦.提升多种功能、促进绿色增长，把现代林业建设不断推向前进——在全国林业厅局长会议上的讲话.2011年12月29日.
②国家林业局发展规划与资金管理司.2010年全国林业统计分析报告.
[1]江泽慧.中国现代林业[M].中国林业出版社,2008:61-67.
[2]张建国,吴静和.现代林业论[M].中国林业出版社,1996:18-20.
[3]鲍甫成,熊满珍.我国木材及林产品供需平衡研究[J].林产工业,2005,32(4):3-5.
[4]唐宏,蒋敏元.大力培育森林资源调整林产品贸易对策——兼论世界林产品生产,贸易格局[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:社会科学版,2005,(1):49-52.
[5]俞新妥,叶功富.混交造林与人工林的持续速生丰产[J].福建林学院学报,1992,12(3):322-326.
[6]熊满珍,鲍甫成,侯元兆.发展木材工业,促进林业可持续发展[J].木材工业,2005,19(001):11-15.
[7]房薇,孙妍.福建省木材流通的现状及存在问题思考[J].林业调查规划,2005,30(004):55-58.
[8]史忠良,吴照云,卢福财, et al.产业经济学[M].经济管理出版社,1998:
[9]林杰，陈平留，黄健儿.森林资源消耗结构的调查研究[J].林业经济问题,1986,2:25-30.
[10]钟晓青.湖南省会同县森林资源消耗的调查与分析[J].中南林业调查规划,1986,4:23-28.
[11]张国红.黑龙江省森林资源消耗状况与分析[J].林业资源管理,1990,3:21-25.
[12]阮海英.建瓯市森林资源消耗状况初析[J].林业勘察设计,1996,1:62-65.
[13]邹统钎,刘军,陈序桄.服务经济理论演变[J].邢台职业技术学院学报,2007,24(6).
[14]王述英.西方第三产业理论演变述评[J].湖南社会科学,2004,(5):85-88.
[15] Kraft.J K A. On the relationship between energy and GNP[J]. Energy Development,1978,3:401-403.
[16] Erol U, Yu. On the relationship between electricity and income for industrialized countres.[J].Journal of Electrcity and Employment,1987,13:113-122.
[17]白宝光,宝音朝克.火力发电厂投入产出消耗结构及消耗系数的应用研究[J].内蒙古工业大学学报:自然科学版,1999,18(002):149-153.
[18] Feng T, Sun L, Zhang Y. The relationship between energy consumption structure, economicstructure and energy intensity in China[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(12):5475-5483.
[19]于珍,李保明,施祖麟.中国工业能源消耗结构演变实证研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(011):7-11.
[20]杨红.耦合产业系统最优化增长路径上产业资源消耗结构的动态分析[J].管理世界,2011,(2):171-172.
[21]潘瑞玉.物流相关概念的综述[J].物流科技,2009,32(006):11-13.
[22]刘娜翠.木材物流系统优化研究[D]:福建农林大学,2006.
[23] Shaw A W. Some Problems in Market Distribution[M]. Harvard Unversity Press,1995:20-22.
[24]陈秋双.现代物流系统概论[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2005:
[25]宋华,企业管理,胡左浩, et al.现代物流与供应链管理[M].经济管理出版社,2000:
[26]魏璋.现代物流管理在我国的发展现状及策略[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2003,(002):6-8.
[27]史玉敏,李卫灵,周斌.我国物流业发展趋势的研究[J].科技信息,2012,(31):214-214.
[28]惠长林.论木材生产物流管理的趋势[J].森林工程,2001,(05):32-33+31.
[29]林宇洪,林森,景锐, et al.木材运输IC卡读写器的开发[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2010,(04):435-438.
[30]王永富.构建林产品现代物流体系对策研究[J].中国物流与采购,2011,(22):76-77.
[31]林宇洪,林森,邱荣祖.基于RFID的林产品原料追溯系统的设计[J].森林工程,2011,(4):34-37.
[32] Ballou R H, Song H. Business logistics/supply chain management[M]. Pearson/Prentice Hall.,2004:
[33]景林.南方贮木场原木生产线性随机模型[J].森林工程,1995,11(002):29-32.
[34]郭建钢,粟金云,景林, et al.贮木场木材库存量动态系统的研究[J].林业建设,1997,(05):24-28.
[35]刘娜翠邱.供应链环境下木材库存问题研究[J].西南林学院学报,2010,30(2):79-82.
[36] Schrady D A. A deterministic inventory model for reparable items[J]. Naval Research LogisticsQuarterly,1967,14(3):391-398.
[37] Richter K. The extended EOQ repair and waste disposal model[J]. International Journal ofProduction Economics,1996,45(1):443-447.
[38] Fleischmann M, Kuik R, Dekker R. Controlling inventories with stochastic item returns: A basicmodel[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2002,138(1):63-75.
[39]李常洪,石磊.一次逆向物流循环的库存控制模型探讨[J].物流技术,2009,(10):65-68.
[40]刘娜翠,林雅惠,邱荣祖.我国木材物流的现状与发展趋势[J].物流技术,2006,(08):19-22.
[41] Handfield R B. Green supply chain: best practices from the furniture industry[A]. In,1996:l295-l297.
[42] Zsidisin G A, Siferd S P. Environmental purchasing: a framework for theory development[J].European Journal of Purchasing&Supply Management,2001,7(1):61-73.
[43] Gilbert S. Greening supply chain: Enhancing competitiveness through green productivity[J].Asian Producitivity Association, Taipei,2001.
[44]郝勇,朱倩,张海婷, et al.物流配送问题的研究文献统计与综述[J].物流科技,2010,(06):1-3.
[45]钱宇.低碳经济下的绿色供应链管理途径[J].中国水运,2010,(003):24-25.
[46]张齐生.中国的木材工业与国民经济的可持续发展[J].林产工业,2003,(03):3-6.
[47]庄玉良,贺超,张岩.近十年来物流研究的综述与分析[J].管理现代化,2004,(005):41-44.
[48]林森,林宇洪,陈虹, et al.物流文献计量及其展望[J].物流技术,2010,(20):39-41.
[49] Sink H L, Langley C J. A managerial framework for the acquisition of third-party logisticsservices[J]. Journal of Business Logistics,1997,18:163-190.
[50]王之泰.现代物流学[M].中国物资出版社,1995:
[51]李堂军,孙承受.我国物流业发展特点与对策[J].经济纵横,2003,(001):16-18.
[52]付晓静.加强物流成本管理提高企业经济效益[J].现代经济信息,2009,(20).
[53] Kreng V B, Wang I. Economical delivery strategies of products in a JIT system under a globalsupply chain[J]. The international journal of advanced manufacturing technology,2005,26(11):1421-1428.
[54]沈贵,张文玲.中国木材工业现状与未来[J].林产工业,2003,(01):3-5.
[55]蒋有绪.森林可持续经营与林业的可持续发展[J].世界林业研究,2001,14(002):1-8.
[56] Qiu R, Esko M. GIS-based decision support system for wood logistics[J]. Forestry Studies inChina,2004,6(4):29-33.
[57]缪小红,周新年,林森, et al.第3方冷链物流配送路径优化研究[J].运筹与管理,2011,(04).
[58]王可山.中国花卉冷链物流的现状,问题与建议[J].中国流通经济,2010,(007):35-38.
[59]李亚兵,乔鹏亮,陶建标.国内外应急物流管理研究综述[J].煤炭经济研究,2008,(10):44-47.
[60]姚昌恬国.中国林业统计指标解释[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2000:
[61]俞新妥.关于福建省树种结构调整问题的几点思考[J].福建林业科技,2002,29(2):1-4.
[62]姜孟霞.森林的结构与调整[J].林业经济问题,2011,30(6):550-555.
[63]洪伟,吴承祯.福建省森林植被潜在生产力的估算及其分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,1999,15(001):48-53.
[64]国家林业局.中国林业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2010:
[65]高兆蔚.论福建省生态公益林布局与规模调整[J].林业勘察设计,2011,(1):1-4.
[66]高兆蔚,李宝银,陈国瑞, et al.福建省森林经理学科发展研究报告[J].海峡科学,2010,(001).
[67]何永清,张庆普.基于马尔科夫链的滨海新区第三产业结构研究[J].长沙大学学报,2011,25(2):95-97.
[68]韩晓昕.基于马尔科夫链的我国三次产业贡献率研究[J].合作经济与科技,2009,(015):24-25.
[69]林森,邱荣祖,洪伟.非参数回归在物流配送中心库存量中的应用[J].物流技术,2009,(11).
[70]胡列格,何其超,盛玉奎.物流运筹学[M].电子工业出版社,2005:33-34.
[71]吴喜之.非参数统计[M].中国统计出版社,1999:
[72]吴承祯,洪伟,吴继林, et al.两种珍稀植物群落物种多度分布的核方法研究[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2000,8(4):301-307.
[73] Fan J, Gijbels I. Local polynomial modelling and its applications[M]. Chapman&Hall/CRC,1996:
[74] H rdle W, Marron J S. Fast and simple scatterplot smoothing[J]. Computational statistics&dataanalysis,1995,20(1):1-17.
[75] Ruppert D, Sheather S J, Wand M P. An effective bandwidth selector for local least squaresregression[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1995:1257-1270.
[76]高洪深.经济系统分析导论[M].北京:中国审计出版社,1998:101~126.
[77]李宏,唐守正.林业产业结构研究综述[J].世界林业研究,2000,13(002):41-46.
[78]潘敬民.中国消费结构分析[J].合作经济与科技,2009,(376):23-24.
[79]王建伟,刘小艳,高洁.产业结构调整对交通运输业能源消耗的影响[J].长安大学学报:社会科学版,2012,13(4):28-31.
[80]翟明普.西北地区生态环境建设中的森林培育问题[J].林业科学,2000,36(6):10-11.
[81]陈昌雄,郑盛文.闽北天然异龄林林分结构规律的研究[J].福建林业科技,1997,24(004):1-4.
[82]中国木材市场供需研究课题组.中国木材市场供给总量与结构研究[J].林业经济,1999,(05):61-74.
[83] Anonymous.省林业局公布《浙江省木材制品耗材折率标准》、《浙江省人造板耗材折率标准》和《浙江省竹制品耗材折率标准》[J].浙江林业,2002,(06).
[84] Wang S Y, Cho C L. The conditioning effect of wooden interior finish on room temperature andrelative humidity in Taiwan[J]. Mokuzai gakkaishi,1996,42(1):16-24.
[85]熊满珍.论发展木材工业促进我国林业可持续发展[D]:中国林业科学研究院,2004.
[86]李成茂.森林资源培育与林业产业结构及区域布局的关系研究[D]:北京林业大学,2010.
[87]中国木材流通问题研究课题组.木材流通物质保障体系方面的问题研究[J].北京木材工业,1997,(3):34-41.
[88]孙启祥.从生命周期角度评估木材的环境友好性[J].安徽农业大学学报,2001,28(2):170-175.
[89] Howard N, Edwards S, Anderson J. BRE methodology for environmental profiles ofconstruction materials, components and buildings[J]. Construction Research CommunicationsLtd,1999.
[90]郭萌,崔积瑺.我国城市木材抛弃物亟待重视——关于废旧木材资源再生利用的建议[J].国际木业,2004,34(010):45-46.
[91] Cole F A, Clausen C A. Bacterial biodegradation of CCA-treated waste wood[J]. Forest ProductsSociety,1996,2801.
[92]福建省林业厅.大力开展植树造林加快建设生态省[J].中国人大,2011,6.
[93]林文耀.福建造纸工业原料结构调整思路[J].国际造纸,2002,(06):35-38.
[94]林宇洪.南方林区林产品物流监管系统的研究[D]:福建农林大学,2010.