摘要
进入21世纪以来,中国被认为是推动世界经济增长的一支重要力量。改革开放30余年来,中国GDP以年均9%的速度在增长,是历史上增长速度最快的经济实体。2005年,如果以市场交换额来衡量,中国已成为全球第四大经济体；如以消费量来衡量,中国已成为全球第二大经济体。2006年中国GDP为2.697万亿美元,2010年达到6.05万亿美元。在过去的四年,中国对外贸易以年均29.5%的速度快速增长。2005年,中国出口总量已经占世界的7.3%,进口总量占世界的6.3%。2010年,中国完成进出口贸易总额2.97万亿美元,成为世界第二大贸易国。有报道称,2011年中国的进出口贸易总额有望达到3.5万亿美元,将超过美国成为世界第一大贸易国。中国的外汇储备截至2010年未达到2.85万亿美元,创下历史新高。中国的崛起已经引起一些国家的忧虑,甚至以美国为首的西方发达国家将其视为一种威胁。它们必然会对中国的崛起进行防范和阻挠,这也必将对中国的经济发展和经济安全构成严重的影响。
如果说参与区域经济一体化已经成为各国维护自身经济安全的重要手段,那么,中国如何在发展区域经济合作中维护自身的经济安全呢?在具体实践中,考虑与西方发达国家组成区域经济一体化来寻求经济安全的保障显然是不现实也是不可行的,那么是否考虑与周边的亚洲国家发展区域经济一体化呢?对于现阶段的中国来说,这也是不容易做到的。可以说,在经济全球化背景下,结合中国经济发展和世界各地区域经济一体化的现状,东亚作为世界经济重要的组成部分,积极参与东亚区域经济合作,与东亚国家和地区共同发展,走出一条有中国特色的区域经济合作之路,乃是保障国家经济安全的必由之路。
本文认为,经济安全就是经济自身的安全。这种观点就是将经济安全视为国家安全的重要内容,同时将经济安全看作一种值得去追求的目标。国家经济安全主要包括实体经济安全和虚拟经济安全。实体经济安全主要包括投资安全、产业安全和贸易安全；而虚拟经济安全主要指金融安全。本文主要以实体经济安全为出发点,从理论和实证两个角度讨论中国参与东亚经济合作所面临的经济风险。
本文认为,中国在参与东亚经济合作的过程中,在贸易、产业和投资三方面均存在经济风险。在贸易领域,中国与东盟之间会出现贸易市场争夺的现象,而与除东盟外的其他东亚经济体之间的贸易摩擦将逐渐增多。在对中国与东亚各经济体的贸易互补指数测定中发现,中国与东亚各经济体的贸易关系都呈现竞争关系。除中国与东盟之间的贸易互补性逐渐显现之外,中国与韩国、中国与日本间的贸易竞争关系也在逐渐加强。贸易竞争的加剧,必然带来更多的贸易摩擦,这些都增加了中国的贸易安全隐患。
在产业安全方面,来自东盟的产业冲击和中国产业被固化的风险也在显现。中国仍然处在东亚的产业分工体系之中,即以日本和韩国为领头雁的产业链之中。如果把0.5看作产业内和产业间贸易分工的临界值,从产业内贸易分工指数来看,中国与日本和韩国仍然处在产业间贸易和产业内贸易的边缘,这样也可以理解为,中国仍然从事低端产品的生产,在为日、韩两国的制造业提供零件及其半成品。虽然按照比较优势,中国确实是在零件生产的相关产业具有优势,按此分工符合理论要求,但长此下来,中国将面临产业技术获得风险,使技术难以提高,使产业结构难以得到升级,同时所得到的产业增加值较低,这显然不符合我国长期的产业发展要求。
在投资安全方面,东盟与中国争夺外资,而外资的改变又影响中国与东亚各国的贸易关系。中国、东盟与日本在外资与外贸的关系上表现为外资流入量与贸易竞争关系成反方向变化的特点。结合中国、东盟与日本的贸易互补系数以及日本对中国、东盟的投资变化来看,2006年和2007年日本减少了对中国的外资投入,中国与日本的贸易互补指数从0.86降到0.84,即贸易竞争性增强。同期,日本增加了对东盟的外资投入量,东盟与日本的贸易互补指数从1升至1.01,虽然变化非常小,但也体现出贸易互补性在增强。
从实证的角度,本文将上述提到的经济风险量化,并利用灰度关联模型对中国参与东亚经济合作面临的经济风险进行定量分析,得出以下几点结论：
第一,中国在参与东亚经济合作的过程中,以零部件为主的制造业将遇到东盟国家的竞争,但对中国的制造产业安全不造成威胁。
第二,中国在吸引来自东亚内部FDI时,将受到东盟的竞争。在东亚内部有限的FDI资源领域中,东盟与中国争夺的情况将十分突出。
第三,日本对中国投资的多少直接影响中国与日本之间的贸易竞争程度,如果日本减少对中国的投资转而增加对东盟的投资,则中国与日本的贸易竞争关系将加剧。
第四,中国与日本的贸易竞争关系在逐渐增强,同时贸易摩擦等矛盾必然加深。
第五,中国仍然处于东亚产业链分工之中,存在着产业技术获得的风险。
In the 21st century, it is an indisputable fact that China became an important force to promoting the economic growth. For 25 years, the GDP of China is to 9% annual growth rate, it is the fast growing economic entity in the history. In 2005, if measured by the amount of market exchange, China has become the world's fourth largest economy; if measured by consumption, China has become the world's second largest economy. The GDP of China is 2.697 trillion US dollars in 2006. In the past four years, Chinese International trade increases at an annual rate of 29.5%. In 2005, the export has accounted for 7.3% of the world and the import has accounted for 6.3% of the world. In 2010, Chinese import and export completed the total 2.97 trillion US dollars, and became the world's second largest trading nation. It is reported that in 2011 Chinese total foreign trade volume expected to reach 3.5 trillion US dollars, surpassing the U.S. as the world's largest trading nation. Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2010 reached 2.85 trillion US dollars, marked a record high. It can be said that the rise of China has attracted most of the countries other than China alert. Both developed countries and developing countries look China as a threat, so they will stop or prevent. This is bound to prevent Chinese economic development and pose a serious threat to Chinese economic security.
Participating regional economic integration has become an important safeguard to each contry's economic security, how to maintain the economic security for China? In practice, it is obviously unrealistic and not feasible to consider the regional economic integration with Western countries to seeking the protection, then whether to consider all the surrounding countries in Asia? For China, at this stage it is difficult to do. Can be said that in the context of globalization with Chinese economic development and the world the status of regional economic integration, actively participate in the East Asian regional economic cooperation and common develop with East Asian countries and regions is the only way to protect Chinese economic security.
This paper argues that economic security is the security of the economy itself. Emphasis on economic security of their own is to see the economic security as a worthy goal and an important content to national security. National economic security includes physical and virtual economic security. The physical security includes investment security, industrial security and trade security; the virtual economic security includes financial security. In this paper, physical economic security is as the starting point, from the theoretical and empirical perspective to discuss the economic risks in Chinese participation in the process of economic cooperation in East Asia.
This paper argues that both in trade, industry and investment there are risks when Chinese participation in the process of economic cooperation in East Asia. In the trade area, China and ASEAN will compete for a trade market, and trade friction will be gradually increased with the other East Asian economies outside of the ASEAN. In the determination of trade complementarity index between China and East Asian economies we found their trade relations emerged as competition. Besides the trade complementary between China and ASEAN is gradually emerging, the trade competions are gradually emerging between China and South Korea and Japan. Trade competition will inevitably lead to more trade frictions which also increase Chinese trade security risks.
In the industrial safety, the risks of industrial impact from the ASEAN and the solidification of Chinese industry are everywhere. China still belongs to the division of labor in East Asia, namely the industrial chain leading by Japan and South Korea. If taking 0.5 as an critical value between industry and inter-industry trade, in accordance with the division of intra-industry trade index, China and Japan, South Korea are still in the dege of industry and inter-industry trade, which also can be understood that China still engaged in low-end producting and provide spare parts and semi-finished products for both Japan and Korea. Though according to the comparative advantage theory, China has advantage in parts production, and it is very consistent with theoretical requirements, but the long run, Chinese industry will be solidified in the stage of the industrial division of labor, and difficult to gain and upgrade the technology, which is not consistent with the requirements of long-term industrial development.
In the investment security, ASEAN and China compete for foreign investment, and the change of investment has affected China and East Asian countries relations.There is a characteristics that the foreign capital inflows and trade competition are opposite between China, ASEAN and Japan. With China, ASEAN and Japan trade complementarity index and the investment changes between Japan to China and ASEAN, in 2006 and 2007, Japan reduced the amount of foreign investment to China, while the trade complementarity index of China and Japan dropped from 0.86 to 0.84, that is trade competition enhanced. The same period, Japan increased the amount of foreign investment to ASEAN, ASEAN and Japan trade complementarity index rose from 1 to 1.01, reflects the trade competition increased.
From an empirical point of view, this paper will quantify the above mentioned economic risks, and using gray relational model to quantitatively analyze the risks of Chinese participation in the East Asian Economic Cooperation. The conclusions are the following:
First, the parts industry will face competition from ASEAN countries but is not as a threat to Chinese manufacturing industry when China participating in the process of East Asian economic cooperation.
Second, China and ASEAN will copetite for the FDI which comes from East Asia, and the competition is very prominent.
Third, the amount of Japanese investment to China directly affect on the competition between China and Japan. If Japan reduces its investment to China and instead of increasing investment to ASEAN, the trade competition of China and Japan will intensify.
Fourth, the trade competition of China and Japan gradually increased, the trade friction is bound to exacerbate.
Fifth, China is still among the industry chain in East Asia, and China faces the risk of industry technology to obtain.
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