摘要
随着全球化时代的到来,航空运输越来越重要。航空公司作为航空运输的主体往往对一国或地区的经济发展起着决定性作用,世界经济强国都十分重视航空公司的发展壮大。近年来,随着法荷航合并后的成功掀起了新一轮的大规模并购潮,如汉莎航并购瑞士航、达美航与西北航合并、英航与伊比利亚航合并等,这些并购催生出了竞争力强与网络完善的超级承运人。然而,我国的航空公司虽然也在国内通过并购扩大了规模,但因还没有通过有效整合形成较强的竞争力,还无法与外国竞争力强的航空公司竞争。随着复杂环境的动态变化,航空公司即使形成了一定的核心竞争力仍很难持续发展,需具备能够不断适应环境变化的动态核心能力才能持续发展。动态核心能力理论主要集中于一般企业动态核心能力研究,很少具体到某个行业动态核心能力研究,关于航空公司动态核心能力及其演化的研究还几乎没有涉及。为增强我国航空公司的竞争力,完善动态核心能力理论,本文采用演化经济学的分析框架与方法,以及多元统计分析方法研究了航空公司的动态核心能力。
本文通过对相关文献的查阅与研究,归纳了企业演化理论、核心竞争力理论与动态核心能力理论的起源、形成及发展,以及航空公司竞争力研究的现状等,并将之确定为本文的理论支柱。从地域分布与整体实力(北美、欧洲与亚太)、服务模式(全服务、低成本与高端服务)、成败三个维度选择了三十多个具有代表性的航空公司实例样本,分析了航空公司在竞争过程中动态核心能力演化的规律。在理论和实例分析的基础上,本文提出了航空公司动态核心能力是航空公司更新适应能力的能力,是一种复杂适应性机制,是一个核心能力形成竞争优势的动态演化过程,其本质是航空公司的核心竞争力构建要和其所面临的多变的内外复杂环境相匹配,其形成受外部的主基地城市经济发展与人口状况、政府管制政策、飞机制造与维修技术、竞争状况及替代品威胁五个因素,以及内部的规模与航线网络、安全运营能力、经营能力、服务创新能力及管理体制五个因素影响。航空公司通过复杂适应性机制在行业生命周期的不同阶段,使其动态核心能力最佳适应性图像一直处于波峰状态,在对经济周期、石油价格波动、突发事件等复杂环境的不断适应中得以生存和发展。在适应环境变化的演化过程中,航空公司之间的竞争遵循着从低层次竞争向高层次竞争演化的规律,依次经过资源与规模层次的竞争、职能竞争力层次的竞争、核心竞争力层次的竞争与动态核心能力层次的竞争。成功航空公司的典型路径为:资源垄断与规模快速扩张之路、低成本运营的市场竞争之路、高质量的服务及其创新之路,以及多品牌的网络服务之路。
经过对系统演化研究方法NW模型、演化博弈论、自组织理论、元胞自动机等比较与选择,确立了元胞自动机为本研究的实证演化研究方法。通过分析元胞自动机在航空公司动态核心能力研究中的应用,在理论分析与假设的基础上,基于元胞自动机分别设计了航空公司竞争层次演化模型、服务创新演化模型与核心竞争力演化模型。通过计算机编程,分别以中美两国航空公司竞争层次演化、深航的服务创新演化及深圳——北京航线的核心竞争力演化为例进行了模拟实验与分析,模拟结果验证了理论假设及应用元胞自动机设计演化模型的可行性。研究表明,元胞自动机能较好地模拟航空公司动态核心能力的演化,并能够通过模拟程序及其参数调整对航空公司动态核心能力演化进行预测和控制。最后,构建了航空公司动态核心能力的分层次评价指标体系,基于因子分析和聚类分析对全球25个主要样本航空公司2009年的指标数据进行了评价与分析,评价结果较好地验证了理论分析与假设。通过分析影响评价结果的关键指标,提出了各样本航空公司动态核心能力培育的对策性建议。
Along with the era of globalization comes, aviation transportation becomes more and more important. As the main body of aviation transportation, airlines always act the vital function to economic development of one country or district, so all of the countries with great power economy very regard airlines development and becoming strong. Recently, the success combination of Air France and KLM start one new round of combination cosmically, such as Lufthansa merged Switzerland airlines, Delta combined with Northwest Airlines, Britain Airlines combined with Iberia Airlines, the combinations make the super airlines with strong competition and perfect network. However, airlines of our country also through merger enlarged the scale, but have not made the core competence with efficiency combination, also can not compete with the foreign strong airlines. Along with complex environment changes dynamically, airlines only with the core competence can not keep on with development, need the dynamic core competence acclimation keep on development. Dynamic core competence theory mostly fastens on research of the general enterprise, seldom research some special industry, dynamic core competence of airlines and its evolution research have hardly been involved. In order to boost up the competition of our countries’airlines, perfect the theory of dynamic core competence, this paper researched dynamic core competence of airlines with the analysis frame and method of evolvement economics, and statistical multi-analysis method.
Through searching the correlation literature and study, this paper concluded the origin, come into being and development of corporation evolvement theory, core competence theory, dynamic core competence theory and some research of airlines competition, and made them as theory support of this paper. Selected over thirty representative airlines from three dimensions and analyzed the evolution rules of airlines’dynamic core competence during the competition process, first dimension is district and strength which including North America, Europe and Asia Pacific; second dimension is service model which including full service, LCC and high quality service; third dimension is success and fail. Based on theory and example analysis, this paper put forward the airlines’dynamic core competence is the capability of airlines renew adapt ability, one kind complex adaptability mechanism, one process of core competence come into being competitive advantage, its essence is the core competence of airlines matching with changing complex environment, forming with external five factors: GDP and population of airlines main base city, government policy, plane manufacture and maintain technology, competition status and substitution threaten; and with internal five factors: scale and network, safety operation ability, management ability, service innovation ability and administration system. In different phases of industry lifecycle, through complex adaptability mechanism, airlines make the best adaptability image of their dynamic core competence get along with wave crest status, could always adapt the complex environment, such as economic cycle, oil price fluctuate, break out event, etc., and survive, then develop. During the evolvement process of acclimation, the competition among airlines follow the evolvement rules from low administrative levels to high administrative levels, in turn they are resource and scale levels competition, function levels competition, core competence levels competition and dynamic core competence competition. Type path of success airlines are: the path of resource and scale celerity expand, the path of low cost carrier price compete, the path of high quality service and its innovation, the path of network service with different brand.
Through comparing system evolvement research method NW model, evolutionary game theory, self-organizing theory and cellular automata, choose cellular automata as the demonstration evolvement research method. After analysis cellular automata application in research of airlines’dynamic core competence, with the theory hypothesis, based on cellular automata, designed airlines competition levels evolvement model, service innovation evolvement model and core competence evolvement model. Through computer making program, separately took airlines competition levels evolvement of United States of America and China, Shenzhen Airlines service innovation evolvement, and core competence evolvement of Shenzhen to Beijing airline as example simulate, the result of simulation validated correctness of the theory hypothesis and the designed cellular automata evolvement model. This research indicates that cellular automata could well simulate evolvement of airlines dynamic core competence, at the same time, could forecast and control evolvement of airlines dynamic core competence through simulation program and its parameter adjusting. At last, set up different competitive levels evaluating index system of airlines dynamic core competence, based on factor analysis and clustering analysis, evaluated 25 main sample airlines all over the world with their index data of 2009, the evaluating result could well validate the theory analysis and hypothesis. Through analysis the key index which effect the evaluating result, this paper proposed different suggestion for fostering dynamic core competence of different sample airlines.
引文
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