摘要
全球经济的快速发展带动了能源消耗量的快速增加,煤炭、石油、天然气等一次能源的消费量逐年递增带动了C02排放量也不断上升。据相关机构估计,作为中国能源消费主体的煤炭的探明存储量将在105年内采光,石油将在15年内枯竭,天然气资源和油的储采也仅能维持30年和50年。石油、煤炭等化石能源逐渐耗竭,环境污染及温室效应加剧,能源危机与环境保护成为实现可持续发展面临的焦点问题。继2006年我国超越美国成为世界上第一大温室气体排放国后,我国面临的环境压力日益增加。电力工业每年消耗的煤炭占据全国总煤炭消耗量的一半以上,为能源消耗和污染排放的主要产业,其节能减排措施的施行对我国整体节能减排政策的实施有着重要的作用。作为电力部门响应节能减排政策的最重要的政策,节能发电调度于2007年被提出。在节能调度环境下,电力公司购电环境和售电环境与以前的计划调度环境相比发生很大的变化。为了分析电力公司在节能调度环境该如何进行购售电策略的选择,本文通过分析节能调度环境下电力公司购售电环境的变化,建立了省级电力公司省内和跨省跨区购售电优化模型,为电力公司购售电策略选择提供了重要的依据,完成的主要工作如下：
(1)从电力市场结构、交易模式着手,结合节能发电调度的内容、目标及机组调度顺序,对节能调度环境下电力公司购电环境和售电环境发生的变化进行了分析。其中,购电环境变化主要分析了购电成本、购电策略和购电风险的变化。售电环境变化主要分析了售电价格、输配电价格和售电风险变化。
(2)针对节能调度环境下电力公司购售电流程进行研究。在计划调度购电优化模型的基础上,介绍了节能调度环境下电力公司省内发电权交易的流程和优化模型,并进一步建立了水火电购电优化模型、风火电购电优化模型以及风水火购电优化模型；最后,对比了三种购电优化模型下的风电、水电并网量,风能利用率以及电力公司购电成本。
(3)通过研究跨省跨区发电权交易机理,提出了考虑电煤运输损失后的发电煤耗计算模型、考虑输电损失后的交易电量计算模型和省际电力公司跨省跨区发电权交易撮合模型。
(4)在分析省级电力公司的收入、成本的基础上,提出了省内及跨省跨区电力购售差价对电力公司利润影响模型,对省级电力公司的购售电利润进行了不确定性分析,基于上述研究,分别提出了电力公司在日前与实时电力市场的购电优化模型,节能调度与分时电价下的购电优化模型。
(5)由于节能调度环境下电力公司的购售电环境均已发生了较大的变化,其面临的购售电风险也较之计划调度环境下有了较大的变化。本文利用ISM分析模型对电力公司面临的风险因素进行了相应的分析,为电力公司风险管理提供了建议。
The rapid development of the global economy caused a rapid increase in energy consumption. Coal, oil, natural gas and other primary energy consumption has increased year by year, which led to the constantly rise of carbon dioxide emissions. According to the relevant agencies'statistical data, as the main energy consumption of China, the proven storage capacity of coal would be used up in105years. While, the oil will be depleted in15years, natural gas resources in30years and oil reserves-only in50years. With the depletion of oil, coal and other fossil energy and the continuously deteriorating of environmental pollution and the greenhouse effect, the energy crisis and environmental protection has become major problems to be solved, in order to achieve the goal of sustainable development. From2006, overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitting country, China is facing increasing environmental pressures. Coal consumped by power industry takes for more than half of the total coal consumption of the nation, being the major energy consumption and pollution emissions industry. Therefore, the measures to reduce emissions implemented in power industry have an important role in the implementation of China's overall energy saving policy. As the most important measures of the electricity sector responding to the energy saving policy, the energy-saving generation scheduling has been proposed in2007. In the energy-saving dispatching environment, the environment of power companies'purchase and sale electricity changed a lot, compared with the previous ones. In order to analysis the electric power company how to make purchase and sale tragedy choice in energy-saving dispatching environment, this paper analyzed the environment changes of the power companies'purchase and sale electricity in energy-saving scheduling environment, and then established the provincial power company purchase and sale electric optimization model inside and outside the province, providing an important basis for electric power company in choosing the strategy of purchasing and sailing electric. The main work accomplished by this paper as follows:
(l)From the structure of the power market, trading mode and the content of energy-saving dispatching policy, the article analysis the environment changes of the power companies'purchase and sale electricity in the energy-saving dispatching environment.
(2)The article studied the electric power companies'purchase and sale process in energy-saving dispatching environment. Based on the planning scheduling optimization model of electricity purchasing, this paper introduced the power generation right trading process and optimization model in the energy-saving dispatching environment, then established the water, thermal power purchase of electricity optimization model and the wind, thermal power purchase of electricity optimization model and the wind, water, thermal power purchase of electricity optimization model. At last, compared wind power, water and electricity grid amount, wind energy utilization and electric power company constitute a cost under the three kinds of power purchase optimization model.
(3)Researched on the interregional power generation right trading mechanism, the article puts forward the power generation calculation model under the consideration of the loss of power coal transportation and the loss of the power transmission, and generating power dealmaker model.
(4)Based on the analysis of the provincial power companies'income and cost, put forward the power company profit's influencing model inside and outside the province, analyzing the influence of the price gap between purchase and sales power on power company profit. And then the article made uncertainty analysis of provincial power companies'purchase and sale power profit. Based on the above research, this paper proposed the power purchase optimization model for the power company in contract and real-time power market, and in time-of-use electricity price of purchasing price under the energy-saving dispatching environment.
(5) Using the ISM analysis model analyzed the risk factors that the power company is facing, and then proposed some risk control management advice.
引文
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