摘要
本文通过世界茶叶主产贸易国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的比较,旨在得出中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的变动趋势及规律,寻找到影响中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的变动因素,发现制约中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的障碍,获得强化中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的正确路径,解决中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势长期弱化和动态比较劣势长期无法转变的问题。本研究是动态比较优势理论在茶叶对外贸易领域的一种探索,有助于丰富动态比较优势理论在以茶叶为代表的农产品贸易领域的内容,有助于发现中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较劣势及其形成因素,有助于改变中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较劣势,促进中国茶叶对外贸易健康、稳定、持续发展,为中国政府启动振兴中国茶叶对外贸易发展战略提供理论支持,对于发挥中国茶叶对外贸易强国优势,恢复中国茶叶对外贸易的领导地位提出政策建议。
一、主要的研究内容
本论文共包括九章内容：第一章导论；第二章理论借鉴；第三章中国茶叶对外贸易历史的演变；第四章中国当代茶叶对外贸易的国际竞争环境；第五章中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的变动趋势；第六章中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的因素分析；第七章中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的变动特性；第八章制约中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的障碍分析；第九章研究结论和政策建议。
二、研究的基本结论
1.中国茶叶对外贸易有国家生产专业化方面的动态比较优势,无国际和产业内专业化方面的动态比较优势,也无出口市场竞争方面的动态比较优势通过中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势在国际专业化水平、国家专业化水平、产业内专业化水平以及出口市场竞争优势四个方面的动态量化,发现除有国家生产专业化动态比较优势以外,其余三个方面均表现为动态比较劣势。其中除了产业内专业化水平近二十年来呈不断强化走势以外,其余三个方面均呈现出不断弱化的走势。目前,世界茶叶贸易动态比较优势总体竞争格局呈现出越来越严重的两级分化,一是以肯尼亚、斯里兰卡、马拉维、坦桑尼亚四国具有极为明显强化的趋势,是包括中国在内的印度、印度尼西亚、孟加拉、越南、阿根廷、日本、土耳其八国呈不断弱化的趋势。
2.随着世界茶叶贸易竞争加剧,世界茶叶主产贸易国间双向贸易自二十世纪八十年代中后期以来呈现出不断上升的发展势头,虽然世界茶叶产业内专业化动态比较劣势突出,但中国茶叶差异化对外贸易动态比较劣势相对较弱目前世界形成了以肯尼亚、中国、斯里兰卡、印度四国寡占茶叶出口市场规模的格局,同时也形成了以肯尼亚、斯里兰卡、马拉维和坦桑尼亚四国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的竞争格局。但从世界茶叶贸易本身的发展变化来看,出现了自二十世纪八十年代中后期以来,明显偏向茶叶产业内差异化贸易动态比较优势发展的趋势。根据对茶叶产业内专业化程度的动态量化,虽然至今总体严重滞后于茶叶单向贸易,但通过衡量茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势四个指标的国际比较,唯独发现中国拥有茶叶产业内专业化水平的相对动态比较优势,而肯尼亚茶叶产业内专业化水平极低,斯里兰卡也低于中国,唯一对中国构成威胁的是世界另一个茶叶生产大国印度。
3.政策是影响中国茶叶对外贸易国际专业化和产业内专业化动态比较优势的关键因素,生产和市场是影响中国茶叶对外贸易出口市场竞争动态比较优势的主要因素,生产、市场和政策均与中国茶叶对外贸易国家专业化动态比较优势无显著关系,而影响世界其它茶叶主产贸易国动态比较优势的主要因素为市场根据生产、市场和政策对影响茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的因素分析,发现与中国茶叶对外贸易国际专业化和产业内专业化动态比较优势存在显著关系的只有政策,与中国茶叶对外贸易出口市场竞争动态比较优势存在显著关系的主要为生产和市场,而与中国茶叶对外贸易国家专业化动态比较优势均无显著关系；发现市场是影响世界其它茶叶主产贸易国动态比较优势的主要因素。这与动态比较优势理论对动态比较优势的解释,主要是基于技术变化引发劳动生产率不断提高的生产因素和政府对后天先进要素资源实施干预的政策因素共同作用的观点不相一致。
4.先天生产要素积累不足和后天先进要素投入不足,致使中国茶叶土地生产率水平长期处于世界最低水平,茶叶出口在世界茶叶市场中有量无质的竞争优势,是中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势长期弱化和动态比较劣势长期无法转变的根本原因中国是世界茶叶生产和贸易的发源地,但茶业一直处于副业地位不被国家重视其商品地位。从世界茶叶主产贸易十二国茶叶对外贸易在国家商品贸易结构中的专业化程度来看,除肯尼亚以外,总体都呈现出明显的下降趋势,但中国茶叶国家商品化专业化程度为最低水平,严重阻碍有利于提高茶叶土地生产率水平和技术水平的各种生产要素积累。动态比较优势理论对基于技术变化的动态比较优势的解释,是由于先发优势国的“技术外溢”和“干中学”的后发优势国技术创新以及在实践中不断的经验积累和劳动技能的提高,才会导致先发优势国逐步丧失其基于先天自然资源禀赋优势。
5.世界茶叶贸易动态比较优势不是单个国家所拥有,主要表现为在发展中国家更迭中实现不断强化的特征世界茶叶贸易优势地位的更迭,主要经历了早期的中国,到后来的印度、斯里兰卡、日本,再到现在的肯尼亚、马拉维、坦桑尼亚三个重要发展阶段的动态变化。从茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势的变化趋势来看,最早出现中国最弱走势,其次是印度、斯里兰卡、日本总体呈现下降趋势,以及肯尼亚、马拉维和坦桑尼亚后发竞争优势越来越明显。世界茶叶贸易动态比较优势正是通过发展中国家内部之间的不断更迭,才实现了世界茶叶贸易的不断发展和促进了世界茶业的不断发展。
三、论文的创新之处
1.首次将动态比较优势理论针对以茶叶为代表的农产品贸易领域进行探索动态比较优势理论主要针对工业制成品贸易动态比较优势的研究,认为基于先天资源禀赋优势的农产品等初级产品的比较优势长期会弱化而不具有动态比较优势,基于政府干预下的工业制成品贸易具有动态比较优势,但对农产品贸易动态比较优势变动的特性以及影响的主要因素缺乏深入分析。所以本文将动态比较优势通过技术创新和后天学习形成的相关观点,引入以茶叶为代表的农产品贸易动态比较优势的研究,以发现茶叶贸易动态比较优势的变动特性和制约茶叶贸易动态比较优势的主要障碍,以及决定茶叶贸易动态比较优势的主要因素,以丰富和完善动态比较优势理论的内容。
2.首次在原有动态比较优势理论中引入市场因素对动态比较优势理论进行深化动态比较优势理论主要强调通过后天技术创新和“干中学”的知识经验积累提高劳动生产率水平以不断降低生产成本维持产业动态比较优势,同时政府对贸易产业先进要素资源干预性的投入增加而实现产业动态比较优势的不断强化。无论是基于贸易商品比较优势生产自身条件的改进或提高,还是强调基于政府对贸易商品比较优势生产条件改进或提高的支持,始终只围绕单纯从提高贸易商品比较优势的生产能力出发去解释动态比较优势,忽视了市场因素对贸易商品动态比较优势的影响。所以本文除了考虑已有动态比较优势理论强调生产、政策对贸易商品动态比较优势的影响以外,另外增加了市场因素对动态比较优势的影响。
3.多角度或多层面对中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势变动趋势进行全面分析研究考虑到世界茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势不但涉及到以单向出口为主的贸易数据来判断,同时也考虑到随着世界茶叶出口市场不完全竞争加剧,包括进口在内的茶叶双向贸易数据。与此同时,考虑到不完全专业化生产的普遍存在以及国家对贸易商品生产要素资源投入的干预,贸易商品在国家贸易商品结构中的专业化程度同样影响动态比较优势走势,通常只有在国内具有很高的生产专业化程度商品,才有可能具有该商品在世界范围内的专业化程度优势。另外,生产专业化程度优势都得满足不断变化的市场需求而具有出口市场竞争优势。所以本文具体采用了国际专业化、国家专业化、产业内专业化三个衡量生产专业化程度的指标,以及出口市场竞争优势的一个指标,共四个指标,以全面分析茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势变动趋势。
四、进一步研究的问题
本文只从茶叶进出口贸易角度研究中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势。但中国作为世界茶叶贸易大国,不可忽视国内巨大茶叶消费市场对其产生的动态影响,有待于进一步从中国国内茶叶消费市场动态变化的角度研究中国茶叶对外贸易动态比较优势。
This study is based on the comparison of world top tea production and trade scaled countries' dynamic comparative advantage in tea freign trade. The aim of it is to find out the changing tendency and regulation of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage in the modern times, the determinant factor on the impact of Chian tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage change, the restricted obstacles on the China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage, so that the correct way is discovered to enhance China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage and the long weakening way of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage can be stopped. This research is the exploration of dynamic comparative advantage theory in the field of tea foreign trade, it is helpful to enrich the application content of dynmic comparative advantage theory in the field of agricultural trade taking the tea as an example, also helpful to discover China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative disadvantage and the causes to give rise to it, also helpful to change China tea foreign trade comparative disadvantage and improve China tea foreign developing healthily, steadily and continuously. It serves for the theoretical support for China to vitalize tea foreign trade development strategy, and it is helpful to recover the strong status and leader of China tea foreign trade in the world.
I Main research contents
This research includes altogether nine chapters:Chapter1Introduction; Chapter2Learned Theory; Chapter3Change on China tea foreign trade history; Chapter4International competitive environment of China modern tea foreign trade; Chapter5Changing tendency of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage; Chapter6Analysis on the determinant factors on the impact of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage; Chapter7Changing charactors of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage; Chapter8Obstacles of restricting China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage; Chapter9Research conclusions and suggestions.
II Basic conclusions in the study
(1) China has dynamic comparative advantage in the national specialization of tea foreign trade while no dynamic comparative advantage in the aspects of the international and the intra-industry specialization, and the tea export market competitive performance. Through the international comparasion on the four indexes of international specialization level, national specialization level, intra-industry specialization level and export market competitive performance of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage, it is discivered that the thress indexes are the lowest in the wold excluding the intra-industry specialization level relatively having dynamic comparative advantage and being strengthened in the top ones of the world. At present, it is very obvious that the world tea trade dynamic advantage is totally toward two extreme poles, one group is the strong dynamic comparative advantage based on the four countries of Kenya, Sri Lanka, Malawi and Tanzania, the other group is the weakening dynamic comparative advantage based on China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Argentina, Japan and Turkey.
(2) With the world tea trade competition strengthening and the gradual development of world tea two-way trade since the middle and late1980s, although the dynamic comparative disadvantage of the two-way tea trade is still clear, China has the relatively weaker tea differentiated dynamic comparative disadvantage. At present, from the world tea export market shares point of view, it is formed with the oligopolistic competitive world tea market based on Kenya, China, Sri Lanka and India. And the same time, the four countries of Kenya, Srilanka, Malawi and Tanzania have the strongest dynamic comparative advantage in the world tea foreign trade. But from the tea trade point of view, the tea intra-industry trade scale has been developed since the middle and late of1980s. According to the dynamic measurement of tea intra-industry trade dynamic comparative advantage of the world top tea and trade countries, but through the four indexes comparison on the tea trade dynamic comparative advantage, it is discovered that China has the relatively tea intra-industry dynamic comparative advantage, while Kenya has the very low advantage, and Sri Lanka also lower than China, the unique rivalry is another tea production and trade large country of India.
(3) Plicy is the key factor to impact on China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage of international and intra-industry specialization, the production and market are the main factors to effect on the dynamic comparative advantage in China tea export market competition while production, market and export performance having no any strong relations with China national specialization dynamic comparative advantage, and market is the main factor to impact on the other world top tea production and trade countries' dynamic comparative advantage. Based on the production, market and policy factors on the impact of the tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage, it is discovered that policy is the only factor to have a strong relation with China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage in international and intra-industry specialization while both production and market having a strong relation with China tea export market dynamic comparative advantage. But production, market and policy have no any relations with China domestic tea specialization dynamic comparative advantage; In addition, market is the main factor to have a strong relation with the tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage of other world top tea production and trade countries. The result is different from the viewpoints of the dynamic comparative advantage explanation based on the dynamic comparative advantage theory, which points that the dyamic comparative comparative advantage is the joint of land productivity improvement based on tea technology change and the acquired advanced production factors interfered by governemnt policy.
(4) Lacking enough natural production factors accumulation and acquired advanced production factors input, so that China tea land productivity keeps the lowest level of the world in the long run and has no competitive advantage in tea export quality but quantity, this is the rooted reason to lead to China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage weakness and change the dynamic comparative disadvantage in the long run. Although China is the origin of the world tea production and trade, the country has never pay any attention to its commodity status in China ecnonomy.As for the top twelve countries of the world tea production and trade, the national specialization of tea foreign trade in these countries' whole traded commodity is totally decreasing but Kenya, and China is the lowest. It is not helpful to increase the accumulation of the various production factors to improve the land productivity and technology. According to dynamic comparative advantage theory's explanation on the dynamic comparative advantage which based on technology change, due to the natural endowed advantageous country's "technology spillover" and "learning by doing", the acquired advantageous country innovates the former's technology and enriches working experiences and improves the labor special skills, it makes the former country to lose its advantage endowed with nature gradually.
(5) Not only one single country has the dynamic comparative advantage in the world tea trade, its main character is the transformation among different developing countries. From the transformation of world top tea trade advantageous status, it experiences the early China, later India, Srilanka and Japan, till now Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania, altogether three dynamic development periods of time. And from the tendency measurement of tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage, it is found that China is the earliest country to decrease its dynamic comparative advantage and is also the weakest in world tea foreign trade, then India, Srilanka and Japan are gradually weakening, while at present, Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania are becoming stronger and stronger in the world tea trade competition market. This is the reason that the transformation of tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage among different developing countries has developed the world tea trade and world tea industry.
Ⅲ Creative points of the study
(1) Firstly, the application of dynamic comparative advantage theory into tea foreign trade as the example of agricultural goods for exploration. Dynamic comparative advantage theory just focuses on the explanation of manufactured goods' dynamic comparative advantage. The conclusion is that agricultural goods trade advantage based on the endowed advantage with natural resources is weakening in the long run and completely dispears in the end, while the manufactured good advantage based on the government interference can be strengthened in the long run. But the research doesn't go on studying the changing charactors and weakening causes of aricultural goods trade' dynamic comparative advantage. Therefore, this research is based on the points of dynamic comparative advantage theory, which explains the technological change and the acquired learning to form the dynamic comparative advantage, to study the dynamic comparative advantage of agricultural goods taking the tea trade as an example. So that it discovers the changing charactors and the weakening causes of agricultural goods trade dynamic comparative advantage and the determinant factor to form the agricultural goods trade dynamic comparative advantage, to enrich the present dynamic comparative advantage theory.
(2) Firstly, considering the market factor into the original dynamic comparative advantage theory to deepen the dynamic comparative advantage. Dynamic comparative advantage theory focuses on the technological innovation and acquired knowledge and experiences from "learning by doing" to improve labor productivity and decrease the laobor cost to obtain the advantage in the industry, at the same time, government intereferes with acquired advanced production factors inflowing the traded industry to carry out the strength of traded industry dynamic comparative advantage. Either the self-improvement or progress production conditions based on traded goods comparative advantage, or based on government intereference with the traded goods to improve or support the production conditions, it ignores the market impact on the traded goods dynamic comparative advantage. Therefore, this research considering the production and policy on the impact of traded goods dynamic comparative advantage, also considering the market directly impact on the dynamic comparative advantage.
(3) From different angles or levels to analyze the changing tendency of China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage. Considering the world tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage is not only involved with the single export data, also including the two-way trade data with the imperfect competition in the world tea trade market. At the same time, due to the popular incomplete specialization in the world and the country's interference with the production factors input of traded goods, it is natural that the national specialization of traded goods must have impact on the dynamic comparative advantage. It is normal that with the high domestic specialization and also with high specialization in the world industry. In addition, the production specialization must match the market competition. Therefore, this study uses three indexes of international specialization, national specialization and intra-industry specialization to measure the production specialization, and uses one index to measure the export market competitive performance, altogether four indexes, so that it can study the tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage completely.
IV Further research field
This study is only from the tea import and export viewpoint to examine China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage. As for China a large country in world tea trade, it is very important to consider the domestic consumption impact on China tea foreign trade dynamic comparative advantage. This is for further study. From the domestic consumption market to perfect this study.
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